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jj2416 · 07-03-2023, 02:37 AM

(5158 words plus excel sheets? if that counts for anything)

Explanation and how this came to be can. Skip this if you want to get right to what this is

Firstly to explain what OVRGR even is and how it came to be. I come from the PBE and I am very into baseball. One of the things I enjoy most is how good the stats are for baseball. In the times of now where so many people don't watch games and just look at stats having stats that can really show how a player is doing is important. Many sports with just baseline stats can either favor offensive players heavily or can be misleading. I would say most or all sports lack in defensive stats. Baseball I think is the most ahead in the terms of stats. They have so many that it can be intimidating, but for hitters it can be pretty simple. The main two that I like to look at are OPS + and WAR. I think they are slowly becoming the two most popular advanced stats even to more casual viewers. If you do not know what those are OPS + is OPS which stands for on base plus slugging. Giving their on base average which is hits and their walks on top of waiting the slugging to show the value or a double or home run. OPs can be a great stat for showing well someone is doing, but what the plus does here is it standardizes OPS out of 100 which 100 being average plus accounting for park factors. So now you can look at OPS + and see if a batter is above or below average and by how much.There is also ERA + which is the pitcher equivalent.

Now onto WAR to keep it short it is wins above replacement and the idea is show how many wins you'd get basically above the below average player which would replace a starter. It accounts everything, but is very dependent on how much you play. If you play the full season your WAR can be better than someone better if they did not play as much. Because of this it is not a great stat to normally use in a middle of a season and is sometimes better after the fact. There are also, a billon versions of war but that gets really complicated. It is used as a main way to decide MVP if the race is close.

Now you may ask what does this all have to do with Hockey?

Well these are the stats that I based on my new stat that I have made. In the stats that are out there it feels hard to know how your player is doing without really doing a deep dive into the stats. The more you look into stats the more accurate it will be, but it would be nice if there was a way to quickly look and see how you were performing. A rough estimate, and I think that is also needed in a space like this where there are multiple leagues in one here. You have IIHF you have WJC you have juniors and majors. I have not looked at the difference in competition level between majors or juniors yet, but may be something you see later on in this. With all these different leagues it would be nice to see how well you are doing to add value to your team or how well you are doing in general. That lead me to asking questions about the stats, because my hockey knowledge is pretty limited. After asking around and seeing if there were any stats I did not know about this in the discord and the Patty/Jucc gave me some explanation and then since there was not any I got to thinking. In hockey there are no things like park factors, but in baseball that just is meaning luck.

PDO

PDO from my own research and what others have said is a bit of an older Advanced stat and not really looked at or card for much. PDO is "The sum of a teams shooting and save percentage" Some people multiply it by ten after? But that is not done here and also doesn't make any sense to me. It can be used to be seen as how lucky someone is or how good the team is doing. So I figured that this was a good stat to replace "park factors". It is not the best stat in general, but for these purposes it will work. The next stat is where everything that I have made hinges on.

GR or Game Rating

Game rating is a bit of a weird stat. It is not a stat that is used in real life hockey, because it would be almost impossible to actually do. From what I have research it is able to be done because of how the game is set up and how things can be calculated in a 1s and 0s format or did you have it work or not. it is the closet that you could say to a stat that says how you are doing, but there are a few flaws. People have said and shown how the stat does put into account the role you are playing. There are two ways to take this. I can take it as well if a player isn't do well in the role then they probably could be helping the team better in a different role? Or you can take it as well they may be performing worse in this role, but that role is better for the team. Either way if you are testing out a role for a player and suddenly see a drop in game rating it normally is not a great sign. Once I saw this rating a lightbulb went off. Well if Game rating hypothetically can give you a rough idea of how you are doing with you having to account for some error with GM putting a role on you, you could create something just like OPS+. While OPS+ is only offense technically game rating is both. Game rating uses both your offense and defensive game rating to make it. Making it in theory a more well rounded stat.

OVRGR
(I am considering re naming it GR+,but could make complications if I said "GR+"+ blank)

OVRGR is the stat I came up with. I have made multiple variations of it and I am hoping by the end you can decide which you like best or I think some are better depending on what your goal is. OVRGR is just your game rating based on the average GR in your league (skaters). So if your OVRGR is 100 you are dead average on your game rating. If you have a 110 it would mean that you are 10% better than the average and so on. This is done by "((player's GR)/average GR)*100" which is pretty simple and if that was all I have done I would not have dragged it out this much. With that starting point there is a lot you can do with it. To make this more like OPS+ or to make it more to find your value or how well you are doing you'll need to add to it.

GR+

GR+ is my first vacation of OVRGR. GR+ getting direct inspiration from OPS+ basically replaced OPS with GR and park factors with PDO. While PDO is not the best stat it can put in better perspective of how a player is doing. By putting into the factor or PDO you can account for teammates portion of how they are doing. If as a team you are scoring less and saving less that does have an impact on how you are going to look. In order to show it what I did was "reversed PDO" which means if you have a PDO of 105 in the calculation I would have it at 95. So, if your PDO was over 100 it will bring your rating down a bit and if it was lower than 100 it will bring them up. An example of the formula is "((player's GR)/average GR)*PDO". Because PDO always equals to 100 it actually equals it out for you. This could cause some players on some bad teams to look better than they are. As long as the team isn't atrociously bad it or way above the rest it should be okay, but even so those two things would impact their rating. Unfortunately the next two Variations I do not have as pretty names for.

OVRGR+Time

This is as you may have guessed the stat we used before OVRGR*time. To do this we took the formula before "((player's GR)/average GR)*100" and then made it "((player's GR)/average GR)*(Time on Ice/Average time on Ice)*100". This is done to give the "value" of how much you are actually out there on the ice. All first line skaters will benefit from this a lot, and give you a better idea because both players that have an OVRGR of 102, but one plays double the time does matter a lot. If you know about statistics then theoretically the more of sample you have the more likely it is to the true percentage or data. This stat I think becomes way more of a stat very much like "WAR" from baseball that was mentioned before. Trying to so how much value a player is giving by how much they are playing and how well they are doing. Something like this is best at closer to the end of the season trying to figure out things like MVP. Sometimes it will be simple where the highest point score also has the highest in this stat, but it will not always especially if the best player is a defenseman or maybe a center getting value off of faceoffs.

"GR+"+Time

You could also word this as OVRGR+PDO+Time to make it more clear what it is. Using the overall game rating with the reversed PDO and the time. With the formula being something like "((player's GR)/average GR)*PDO*(Time on ice/Average time on Ice)" This does work keeping the average to 100 because PDO just replaces the times 100 to make it simple( I did make sure the average was 100 or close enough at maybe 100.1). This stat is the ultimate culmination of them all. Using PDO as a way to offset team factors or luck. Time to add the actually value of the work they are doing. In a way this is like if you could combine OPS+ and WAR. The difference between having PDO in there and not in there does not make huge differences, but can be like a + or - 3% which does change how you would view a player. I do want to remind that these should give rough ideas of how someone is doing and are not absolutes and is always a good idea to include context with your stats. As someone who is new and has no idea how the state of everything is yet stats like these can help give me some ideas and hopefully others who are experienced and newbeis like me another look on a player.

Implementation of Stats

I made three sheets/excel documents using these (ill link the sheets version, but if you want the Excel one just DM me). The three I made are SMJHL, SHLand a Template. The template is just the formulas on the rows so all you have to do is copy the index stats and paste it in there and it should work just fine unless they change the formatting of the index comes out, but if they do I can fix it without too much effort. With the template you could use this for any season or any other league like IIHF I think hopefully if not let me know I can fix it for you and make a new template for those. Feel free to use these as GMs or anything I want people to use these as much as they want. My goal would be to get one of these stats to be used on the bot were you look up ur stats and maybe even the index that would be cool. So that people once they realize what this means I think would find it really useful. Now there is a wide range of things you can do with this I think one of the most obvious ways to use this is for awards.

Awards for Juniors and SHL based on my stats (S71)
(I am putting no subjectivity on this besides just basing it off my stat)

I am going to just do MVP then best skater/ defender to make it the most simple. This is not personal opinion I am going straight off of stats. I think the choice shoudl not soley be off the stat, but for these purposes and my limited knowledge this is what I will go by here.

Juniors:

MVP:Smurfunkel Dothe (LW)

This is based on them having the highest "GR+"+Time at 157.5 which in thoery means they provided on average 57% more value than the average player. The things helping them out the most are there high time on ice, not the highest at all. Having an arlready really good game rating, but then having a PDO of 96 then boosted them up even higher being about 6 percent higher than 2nd. Their team did not have their best season so I doubt they will win MVP because of that, but in the eyes of game rating and my stats they are the most valuable player.

Best Forward: Smurfunkel Dothe

Since they were the MVP this is no surpise, but I wanna call attention this time to the fact that they only had 67 points. THen you may be wondering how would they be rated so high. Well if you look a littel deeper their defensive stats are actually pretty good. Since they had decent production and great defense the game rating was great for them. A lot of fowards had better offensive stats, but they had way better defense. Game rating agreed with their defensive game rating of 79 which is one of the highest for forward's that with the combo of them not being on the best team performance wise is rare to find.There plus minus is not great at -32 but there team GD was -88 to put it in perspective. This is the rare case where they lead in GR+ and GR+ with Time. What this means is they were the value player throughout the season, but also the best foward when they were on the ice which is something that should be noticed.

Best Defender: Mit Wobet (RD)

This is actually a very different case. There PDO is 100.1 almost exactly average. It seems they did have the most time on ice. The biggest thing note is that had a great combo of great defense, but still providing offense. Here they did not have the number one defensive game rating, but they were near the top and then had one of the higher offensive game ratings. So some of the defenders who were a bit better at defending did not have the production he had. It does seem the most well rounded and having a great balance leads you to lead this stat.

MAJORS:

MVP:Max Manning ©

Looking at thier stats is not someone who leads in anything, but someone that really does everything. Has a faceoff winrate over 50%,but not the most. Not the most points, but a decent amount. Not the best defensively or offensively, but pretty good on the offense. He did play a lot one of the most in the league which helped him a lot. That combined with a PDO of around 98 boosted him too playing a on a below average team according to PDO. It is a very suprsing one to say the least based off the stats and would have not been one of my first guessing, but was very valuable to the team which is what this award is.

Best Forward: Vaseline Podcalzone (LW)

Now this is incredibly interesting. The reason is Max Manning and Vaseline are actually on the same team..... Now you could say how is this possible. Well Based on GR+ of 124 meaning 24% better than the average is really impressive. For perspective Max Manning has a 117. You have to remember this does not include time. Vaseline had a lot less time on the ice from 96 compared to 90 (Made it two digits). Which is what causes such a difference. They also are not the points leader not really close either, but they are pretty good defensive for a forward compared to the others. When you include that with the good offensive production it makes sense why they ended up on top here. Another interesting thing is his PDO is at 99 instead of Max's of 98 which does make a small difference. According to the stat this was the best forward when they were on the ice.

Best Defender:Wendolene Ramsbottom
honorable mention:Pass Forfeit

The reason this one has an honorable mention unlike the other is that the stats were so close. Wendolene had a GR+ of 105.4 compared to Pass's 105 which is really close and deserves a nod. I really like this stat with defenders because for someone who does not know much about hockey it is really hard to tell if a defensemen are doing well are not. Also with game rating they should be able to detect things we don't. One interesting thing is with defensemen is that their GR+ are always not that far off from 100. Like the highest being only being 105 is way different compared to the forward's 124. It is important to recognize this as maybe game rating not valuing defensemen as much? or maybe they are all more closely together compared to the forwards. It could also be forwards have a higher top end to what they can do. This is also different than a lot of the other ones we have had so far with they are actually a pure defender. A defensive game rating or 80 and offensive of 60 meaning they are not geared towards offense of more balanced very focused on the defensive end. This is also... another person on SEA. I really can not explain why SEA is just sweeping this and you can say its partly the PDO, but a PDO of 98 doesn't affect it to make sure you win this and with Vaseline they had a 99 which doesn't make a huge difference. They ranked the 14th team this season so for them to win all three awards is incredible to say the least. It could be a case of very front-loaded team?Maybe it is a case of something not shown here like goalie play this season? They also could have just gotten unlucky and unperformed as a whole. For perspective they do have the third highest GR+. The other more compelling thing could be is maybe their gms are really putting their people in the right roles to get the most out of each of them according to the game.

Depth/No Goalie/best skaters?
(based on team average GR+)
SHL-Pivot tables go to Rows W-Y for visual of the GR+

SEA-Depth needed/Best Skaters

Touched on this a little bit, but sweeping all three awards? Being third overall in skaters rating? I think the best explanation I can find is its a case of really good top end and needing improvement in goalie play as well. It looks like their starting goalie is gonna be in regression so they are desperately going to need a young backup goalie to be backup in the next two seasons and slowly take over the role. The three players that did win the rewards unsurprisingly are all above 1900 TPE. After that it is a steep draw off. Their current goalie was about 1350 with a very odl backup goalie at about 200tpe. It would have been cool to see where they would have gone if they were able to sneak out of that first round.

ATL-Best Skaters/No Goalie

They are ranked number one on avearge GR+. They did actually have a great season that have over 10 skaters at 1200 or more TPE and most of them being more towards 2000 than 1000. They have one huge problem goalie. I can say this because both their goalies are IA and under 700TPE. One of them is very young S68 so maybe they could bring them back? No idea. They need something fast tho because to waste all these amazing skaters they have performing at such a great level is a travesty. About half and half are in regression and half aren't , but there window will probably close soon if they are not careful. I would literally do anything I could got a goalie even if you have to overpay.

JUNIORS TIME?
SMJHL-Pivot Tables then rows V-W
Doing what we just did but with juniors
QCC-Depth Needed

QCC despite their struggles this season are 4th in GR+ right behind 3 juggernauts that lead the league right now. I think they are very similar situation to Seattle. Did win MVP and best player, but the problem they have is just depth. In juniors its a way different game, but when you have 4 top people then a huge drop off like they have it is tough. Those four are all great and work, but when you have such a heavy drop off and then your two goalies are also lower it is tough. If they have any of those guys called up then its gonna be a rough rebuild period for them, but on the bright side I think if they can have some of their lower actives climb and maybe an active goalie in the next two seasons I think they can easily come back. You have this insane S70 Draft class you built, but can you keep it going. They could be a team to watch out for a rebound next season or a sneaky lower playoff team with high upside.

REG-Playing roles well?

This is a weird one for me. They are 5th overall in GR+, but 8th in the regular season. Looking at the TPE values they all look great I mean very high ones and even an active goalie too at over 300. It all looks great so its not really as clear as the other cases what went wrong in the regular season. If I had to guess it is either they underperformed there or game rating thinks whatever roles they have the players set at are playing at a great level. GR does get impacted by what role they are playing. If they are playing their roles so well why did they not do better in the regular season? That I think is one of two things. Either most of their players were progress so they started to hit their stride at the end or they just got plain unlucky and sucky rng luck. Or maybe they are playing their roles great, but those are not the best for their success in terms of winning?.

NL-My team

We as a team are unfortunately as a team boringly good. Makes it not as fun or funny to talk about, but as defending champs(I was not there but WOOO) that have not lost a step. We are 3rd in the GR+, but also really close to the top 2 so its not far off. On top of that we are really well rounded. The picks they made in the S72 draft have been earning pretty well and we are all well above 200tpe already on top of their top really good core and great goalie play too. So when you have a team that has good top end, but doesn't fall off terrible in the other lines its with a good goalie it is a way of success. Its one of the rare times if things continue they are in a good spot now and in the future which is a very scary thing for other teams.

CONLCUSION:

Firstly if you read through all of this thank you a lot! Really means a lot even if you read part of this. To be reminded I know these stats are not absolute, but can for sure help with choices that are made or put things into perspective which is the whole goal. For someone who is new to hockey this helps me a lot and hopefully is useful to people of all levels and I am sure people who are more knowledgeable can add a lot more onto this. Also if I said something about your team that may have not been the best know it is no hard feelings I am just saying it from outside view and it not a disrespect to those players or the GMS! Also I know some of this is a mess so thanks again for reading through. If you have any questions feel free to DM me on discord jj24orluckyowl I am pretty active there. I am also going to be in the majors draft next season so hello to all the majors scouts looking at this LOL, but hopefully after this you understand why this could be a thing that is used not just for myself, but hopefully for the future. If not I will just use it to do seasons in reviews for the future HAHA so either way I am happy!

spidey · 07-03-2023, 05:32 PM

I really enjoyed this and the breakdown of how you came up with your new stats.

***EmoLeBron*** · 07-03-2023, 06:26 PM

Best Defense: Mit Wobet

Awww yeah boiiii

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