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***boom*** · 04-20-2020, 02:58 PM

[3385 words, ready for grading]

I’m quite interested in roster analysis, particularly in such a turnover-heavy league like the SMJHL, so I thought I’d take a look at what the roster for each team might look like next year, and what positions teams might need to target in the draft. Last season, I took a more general look nearing the end of the season, then went in-depth during draft week once it became more clear which players were getting called up to the SHL, so this is a continuation of that.

Dlsclaimer: I am writing this solely as an individual user and not in my executive role. As well, all information in this piece was obtained using solely publicly available sources.

All the numbers in parentheses are TPE, accounted for as of the April 18 weekend update. Emergency backup goalies are not included on the rosters. DFAs are also not included in these projections since they’re not technically on a roster for next season.

Anaheim Outlaws

Age departures: D Jacob Riley (183)

C: C.T. Carragher (524), Taylor Johansson (414), Rikard Hammarberg (359), Grant Thurber (247)
W: Rhys Pritchard (627), Bale (527), Ethan Price (350), Ziggy Tambo (324), John Forfeit (273), Pooks Halloway (212), Etan Merauk (205), Adriano Ippolito (173)
D: Alex Petrenko (670), Emilia Bergman (252), James LeBlond (217), Yompy Stearf (195), Andreas Stacks (183), Chet Hillier (175), AJ Patella (174)
G: Strom Chamberlain (598), Separa Borro (328)

Anaheim has a strong centre core that could potentially include up to three 425-capped players and likely isn’t going anywhere next season, as well as some pretty decent young, active defensemen in Emilia Bergman, James LeBlond, and Chet Hillier. The winger core should be led by a 425-capped Rhys Pritchard and/or Bale, while S53 wingers Ethan Price and Ziggy Tambo continue to develop. The goaltending is also fairly set, as even if Strom Chamberlain leaves, Separa Borro should be able to carry the load.

Looking into the players who might leave, three names jump off the page: Alex Petrenko, Rhys Pritchard and Chamberlain. Petrenko is a prospect for the San Francisco Pride, and their existing defensive options include a trio of players between 1600-1800 who are either pre-regression or just hitting it in Dominic Montgomery, Leopold Lockhart and Ray Bork, veteran defenseman Charlie Schieck who is into regression but still around 1500 TPE, and grizzled S37 veteran Jack Tanner. Petrenko could be brought up as the 6th defenseman to replace the retiring Tokek Takshak, as the Pride have no other defense prospects at his level and are facing a cap crunch with eight pending UFAs and a draft class to sign with $31.5 million in cap space, and as a 4th-year Petrenko would have to clear waivers to be sent back to the SMJHL. Pritchard’s rights are owned by the Toronto North Stars, who are so bad that Pritchard could be called up today and be their second-best winger. Ruslan Zaporozhets (more on him later) is a 4th year for St. Louis and will almost certainly get the call, but it wouldn’t be out of the question to see Toronto call up both. As for Chamberlain, I think the writing is probably on the wall for his Outlaws career, as he’s seen spot duty over the past two seasons in Winnipeg and Vivian Leblanc is inactive and not getting any better. Chamberlain will probably be in a Jets jersey next season.

As for the draft, I would expect Anaheim to target a winger with their first pick. They don’t have a second- or third-round pick in this draft, so they’ll need to draft smartly.

Anchorage Armada

Age departures: W Jay Reeves (314)

C: Mitchell van der Heijden (766), Santtu Rasanen (382), Cyril Vyskoc (357), Danny White (257), James Yzerman (191)
W: Stan Hanson (518), Chris de Siren (366), Ryan Cvitkovich (362), Braden Lowrie (298), Thorbjorn Gunnarson (231), Corey Rigler (219)
D: Ulrik Bergstrom (462), Berry Blue (328), Lando Norris (327), Matthew Sawful (252), Bork Lazer (247), Alexei Petrikov (242)
G: Sergei Potvinov (290), Scoochie Stratton (247)

Anchorage’s rookie class and the FHM savvy of their management group helped rocket them to the top of the Western Conference, The roster is led by superstar centre Mitchell van der Heijden, but the offense is solid up and down the roster, and the defense will only get better with three active rookie defensemen along with a second-year Scoochie Stratton vying to take the reins in net.

Mitchell van der Heijden is 150% gone next season, so there’s no need to spend words talking about him, but two names that could be up in the air are Stan Hanson and Ulrik Bergstrom. Hanson has virtually no chance of cracking the New England Wolfpack roster next season, as even their worst winger is only two seasons into regression and still at almost 1200 TPE with the entire offense being under contract through next season, and Sasha Dangelchek is a fifth-year that would take an open roster spot anyway. Hanson also does not have a contract for next season, so it would be interesting to see if New England tries to get anything for his rights via trade. Bergstrom might not seem like an obvious target to be called up due to his 462 TPE, but he happens to be a prospect for the Tampa Bay Barracuda, a team that is currently playing three defensemen under 500 TPE. Bergstrom would be a big asset towards helping make Tampa’s defense watchable again, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he went up, but it could go either way.

Anchorage doesn’t have too much on their shopping list, as they’re fairly deep in every position. A new centre to eventually succeed van der Heijden wouldn’t go amiss.

Carolina Kraken

Age departures: D Lee Samson (196)

C: Velveteen Dream (626), Linus Grimstad (217), Bobby Bergen (190)
W: Jimmy Wagner (434), Dwight Knight (272), Vitek Vitecek (248), Stein Nilsen (237), Panda Panico (229), Kwame Dakari (223), Patricia Reichardt (204), Rinako Yukikami (186)
D: Ambacas Cuddles (460), Michael Lee (350), Ben van Dijk (320), Erik Johansson (228), Adam Friedland (220)
G: Frans Eller (427), Joe Simpson (180)

One of the better offenses in the league last year was torn apart by the SHL, leaving the GMs to pick up the pieces. The team is currently in last place this year, but they’re improving and there’s a lot to like about this team for next year. The rookie class of wingers are active and updating, there’s a strong top-four defensive group, and when all else fails, Frans Eller has shown off the ability to singlehandedly steal games.

After the hell of last year, this is a relaxing change of pace for the Kraken. The only player on the team who is even a candidate to make the jump to the SHL is centre Velveteen Dream, who is the GM of the New Orleans Specters. Joe Kurczewski, the oldest forward on the team, is entering his 25th season and is still above 1000 TPE, so I would comfortably expect to see Velveteen Dream back in a Kraken uniform next season.

Carolina, like Anchorage, doesn’t have too much to specifically focus on for this draft. Ambacas Cuddles is probably entering his final season as he is one of the top earners in his class and was drafted by Tampa, so grabbing his replacement to train up would be a good idea. Otherwise, it’s just adding more pieces to the roster and building around this last draft class into a contender. Now that the Kraken actually have high picks this time around, they’re in good shape.

Colorado Raptors

Age departures: W Hariken Urawa (422), D Georgy Gorbachenko (251)

C: Simothy Drunkebird (487), Chris Cerullo (269), Jean-Uthred Ragnarsson-Tremblay (232), Tomas Grygera (172), Gregory Stiemsa (171)
W: Sven Svenson (417), Hiroshi Ohira (329), Carlos Brown (299), Randen Skog (201), Ragnar Skallagrimsson (184), Noah Johns II (166), Kyle Browning (158)
D: Bradley Barkov (429), Bryce Turner (326), Aumy Jr (248), Anrijs Asts (220), Sheen Beckett (180), Mikael Stachowski (155)
G: Samat Beibitzhanov (511), Jerry Huuveri (373)

Colorado boasts a strong defense with some nice up-and-coming pieces that were acquired through the last draft, a top-flight centre in Simothy Drunkebird, and strong options on the wing like Sven Svenson, Hiroshi Ohira and Randen Skog. This is all backstopped by what could be the only 425/425 goalie tandem in the entire SMJHL in Samat Beibitzhanov and Jerry Huuveri.

The one interesting name on the Raptors that could make the jump is Samat Beibitzhanov, a third-year prospect of the Manhattan Rage. While Peter Larson is the entrenched starter with six years left on his contract, backup Scottey Crawfling is retiring, which could result in Beibitzhanov being called up to the big leagues early. Huuveri will be more than capable of taking on the starter’s job though.

As for draft needs, Colorado’s wingers are largely inactive past the top three, so their priorities could lie in that positional group.

Detroit Falcons

Age departures: D Zbygniew Pokrywka (370), C Justin Womack (199), W Cassidy Lhotsky (289, retired)

C: Henrik Lundqvist Jr. (674), Reid Sutherland (438), Edward Williams (423), Luke McMaster (415), Taisto Jutila (222)
W: Kaarlo Kekkonen (757), Cal Labovitch (643), Jmac Ncheese (446), Burlok Sulfurgold (414), Frederick Wanesly (392), Zoltan Topalo (375)
D: Guy O’Shea (500), Jack Kanoff (446), Magnus Liljestrom (444), Toki Wartooth (270), Joseph Fantobens (265)
G: A Jobin (351), Thor Odinson (227)

It sounds like a broken record now, but this team is absolutely stacked for next season. Even without Kekkonen and Lundqvist Jr., this team could easily have 9 to 11 425-capped players by the beginning of next season depending on Topalo’s earnings and if Labovitch stays, including their top three centres, top five wingers, and top three defensemen. Anything less than a championship next season is abject failure.

Similar to some other players, Kekkonen and Lundqvist Jr. are fourth-years and absolutely gone next season, but an interesting one to watch is Cal Labovitch. The winger is a prospect for the Minnesota Chiefs, who have several inactive and regressing players that may or may not be back next season. Labovitch could be a candidate to come up and take one of those spots. Guy O’Shea could also have an outside shot at graduating to Texas to replace an inactive and declining pending free agent in Fredrich Koenig, but it’s more likely the spot goes to Adam Scianna of Kelowna in my opinion.

Despite Detroit being utterly stacked this season, they need to draft well this season to ensure it keeps going. These names will start to graduate en masse next season, and the Falcons have to be ready. There’s nothing specific that they’re short on for this team, but unless they draft smartly there will be a steep cliff at the end.

Kelowna Knights

Age departures: W Andrey Barbashev II (697), W Kalevolaripaavo Kaspertommevisnapuu (560), W Gylfi Eriksson (494), D Alex Ranch (190)

C: Rocco Berni (450), Ethan Duncan (435), Morgan Forestier (327), Daniel Laforest (264), Ebenezer Virtanen (232)
W: Jaska Seppala (440), Theo Golury (353), Rotticus Scott (262), Justin Keahi (256), Simon Takshak (250), Noah Esar (155)
D: Adam Scianna (633), Luciano Vessot (429), Noah Nystrom (369), Devin Williams (224), Alexander Kazur II (165)
G: Cillian Kavanagh (542), Brayden Ennis (170)

Kelowna is facing one of the bigger roster drains this season, with several of their best players being S50s and departing after this season. Fortunately, they do have some pretty good options at every position. The Knights will likely have two 425 and two 350-capped centres, so they’re good down the middle. The wings have some solid players with Jaska Seppala leading the way, but as most of their roster drain is on the wings the rookies Rotticus Scott, Justin Keahi and Simon Takshak will be counted on to step up.

As for departures unrelated to aging out, one name is pretty much certain to leave in my opinion: Adam Scianna. Texas has an open spot on defense with inactive pending FA Fredrich Koenig regressing, and Scianna should slide right into it nicely. The only other third-year on the team that is in call-up range is goaltender Cillian Kavanagh, but both of San Francisco’s goaltenders are out of regression range and under contract for one more season so this is unlikely.

Kelowna’s main priority in this draft should probably be to replenish at the position they lost the most from this offseason, which is the wingers. This seems to be a common theme this draft, so teams better hope it’s a good winger class. The defense also needs some refilling with Scianna almost certainly gone and Vessot entering his last season with the Knights.

Maine Timber

Age departures: W Partario Scarangella (200)

C: Alexander Roach (269), Patrick Shepherd (260), Konrad Danke (247), Julien Villeneuve (241), PeaKay Soupcan (159)
W: Al Kayhall (641), Thicc Cheezy (528), Lucas Hellquist (294), Marty Sertich (231), Kyle Sutton (229), Rapid Eagle (177)
D: Valentin Kalashnikov (401), Mikkel Asmus Sondergard (268), Blake Feaux (256), Simon Moreau (235), Will Windsor (215), Jack von Arx (196)
G: Olli Saarinen Jr. (565), Leo Bloomfield (202)

Maine looks pretty solid for this upcoming season. They have three active centres, including top-20 picked rookies Patrick Shepherd and Konrad Dankes, and a promising defense featuring Valentin Kalashnikov and first overall pick Mikkel Asmus Sondergard. Lucas Hellquist, Marty Sertich and Kyle Sutton are young winger options that will continue to develop, while Leo Bloomfield has effectively supplanted the starting role in his rookie season with his strong play.

The two players that are almost certainly gone are wingers Al Kayhall and Thicc Cheezy. Both are fourth-years and not likely to return. Kayhall is a prospect of the Hamilton Steelhawks. Hamilton has a few pending regressing free agents, so Kayhall should be able to make the team there. Cheezy, meanwhile, is headed for the Minnesota Chiefs, who as I’ve already mentioned have several inactive pending free agents who could be out the door to make room.

This is becoming a broken record at this point, but yes, Maine’s biggest roster need for next season is once again wingers. There is a sharp drop-off from Thicc Cheezy to Lucas Hellquist, and even then there are still only four wingers (and a fifth centre) on the roster.

Newfoundland Berserkers

Age departures: None

C: Gavin Wallace (234), Guy LeGrande (223), Mats Marner (223), Matthew Forrester (219)
W: SLATT Potts (553), Steve Harrington (445), Ryuuji Minamino (428), (Clean) Andrei Kostitsyn (334), Patric Twist (259), Mattias Birdstrom (244), Red Arrow (213), Niccolo Livius (206)
D: Jukka Timonen (433), PBJ Souppan (252), Tinke Jutila (244), Jack Klompus (242), Renji Atake (212), Elias Kirkegaard (201)
G: Cale Amundsen (251), Matvei Stevlaco (177)

This team might not look like much TPE-wise, but they’re going to be absolutely loaded next season. The reason why: not only do they have 13 rookies on the team, including their entire centre group and five of their defensemen, but every single player on the team is active. Activity improves a team throughout the season and should make them incredibly strong in S54. For an example of how this can work, just check out Detroit this season. The only roster players who missed the last update are Wallace, Atake and Stevlaco, and only Stevlaco has missed the last two. Also, Newfoundland is the only team in the league with zero S50 players on their roster this season.

The only departure that is really possible might be Potts, as he is a prospect for the rebuilding Texas Renegades. However, they only have one regressing forward that is a pending free agent in Ian Essellemm, and Kaarlo Kekkonen essentially has his name on that locker stall already, being a fourth-year at a higher TPE. Potts will likely spend one more year down in Newfoundland mentoring the rookies.

Given that the entire team is active and updating, Newfoundland likely won’t be making many picks this season because they have nowhere to put them in the lineup. They could draft a winger or two to succeed Potts, Harrington and Minamino in future, and potentially upgrade at backup goalie over Stevlaco, but other than that there’s not too much that needs to be done here other than keeping the rookies active.

St. Louis Scarecrows

Age departures: W Sasha Dangelchek (528), D Flash Gordon (429), W Yamamoto Mitsuharu (405)

C: Danny Marston (535), Trey Nets (353), Grapefruit Lizard (242), Alex Reyer (229)
W: Ruslan Zaporozhets (695), Indigo Trevino (526), Eric Hudson (428), Mega Tron (403), Kriss Darzins (334), Borys Franciszek (226), William Lockwood (224)
D: Luc-Pierre Lespineau-Lebrunette (530), Erben Kasius (425), Axel Meszaros (420), Elwulf Jericson (244), Trevor Johnson (219)
G: Elizabeth Doyle (764), Richard Majors (238)

Last year, the Carolina Kraken were the poor team that was torn apart in the offseason. This season, the unlucky victim is St. Louis. The Scarecrows are going all-in for a Four Star Cup this year, but it’s going to be a rough ride next season with three players aging out and at least three jumping to the SHL, possibly more if players jump early. They still have some pretty nice pieces on offense like Trey Nets, Eric Hudson, Mega Tron, and others, but the losses will be felt. If the Scarecrows win the Four Star Cup though, it will all be worth it.

The SHL roster drain this year is ugly. Elizabeth Doyle is certainly gone, off to Buffalo to replace Cedric Robinson. Ruslan Zaporozhets is also departing, making the jump to a rebuilding Toronto North Stars squad. Indigo Trevino will play in the SHL, possibly for a different team unless Baltimore makes a trade as there are only two spots being vacated by Gabriel Wong and Dean Colt III and Barbashev and Lundqvist Jr. will take them most likely. Regardless of where Trevino lands, it won’t be back in St. Louis. Luc-Pierre Lespineau-Lebrunette is also a semi-active four year who could be on the move. He doesn’t really have a shot at cracking Chicago’s defense, but a free agent contract could be in the books for him. As for the third-years, it’s not completely out of the question that Danny Marston follows his teammate Zaporozhets to Toronto to assist in the rebuild.

As for draft needs, St. Louis is really going to need some of everything. The Scarecrows only have five rostered wingers for next season, continuing the trend, but they’ll also need to restock their defense after losing Gordon and possibly Lespineau-Lebrunette. Thankfully for them, Richard Majors looks like the future in net, easing their worries after Jason Voorhees busted.

Vancouver Whalers

Age departures: W Francois Breton (460), C Marcus Ohlsson (357), G Rob Blake (161)

C: Stracimir Petrovic (398), Lligma Broomstick (245), Austin Powers (197), Luke Spinelli (155)
W: William Hartmann (414), Nicholas Corrigan (254), Bryce McMahon (208), Miro Slapskinnenen (199), Luffy Richard (190), Jacob Rizzo (182), Walito Gretzky (155)
D: Sven Yxskaft (636), Ryosuke Sato (261), Slimey Snail (224), Sammy Koa (197), James Brown (192)
G: Name Redacted (247)

The rebuild in Vancouver was kickstarted last season with a strong push for defensive pieces, adding their goalie of the future in Name Redacted (nee C** C****) and draft picks Ryosuke Sato and Slimey Snail to go with young winger Luffy Richard. The team additionally put in some work in free agency, adding active rookies Bryce McMahon, Sammy Koa and Walito Gretzky. The Whalers are losing some top offensive pieces next season, but nothing they can’t withstand, and not nearly as bad as the roster apocalypse last season.

There are two players on the Whalers that could be candidates to move up to the SHL: Stracimir Petrovic and Sven Yxskaft. Petrovic is a non-issue, as he’s inactive and Danny Marston would likely be brought up to Toronto ahead of him, while the bigger issue is Sven Yxskaft, the face of Vancouver’s defense. He is a prospect for the vaunted New England Wolfpack, and one of their players, Dylan Karlsson, has only 862 TPE and is a pending free agent. If Karlsson isn’t retained, Yxskaft will be next up.

As for draft plans, I’m not revealing anything on my own team. Rest assured we’re considering things.

The moral of the story in this draft is: if you are a top winger prospect, congratulations! Expect to have half the league fighting over you.