11-27-2019, 12:58 AMcaltroit_red_flames Wrote:

11-26-2019, 11:09 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: I'm definitely one of the people who are quite sceptical and conservative when it comes to big changes like this one. And it's not because I think FHM won't be good, it will likely be way better than STHS, it's because I'm worried that we won't be able to survive the change. That's not a slight against the transition team either as there are some very capable and dedicated people on it, but there are many factors and risks attached to a sim change that are basically outside of human control.

The fact is that a change needs to happen. That change is either update scale restrictions (PA and SC have to be within 20 points of each other is the band aid we're using now which further restricts people's build diversity) or moving to a new engine. So I'm not sure what to say here, but the current iteration of SHL and STHS are incompatible.

I would disagree with that. A new engine is definitely desireable but it's not something that absolutely has to happen. It would certainly be possible to continue with STHS after putting some more band-aids on it, it's basically what we've been doing for years. Still, I would acknowledge of course that there are many negatives attached to this as well.

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11-26-2019, 11:09 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: There might be gamebreaking issues and bugs that don't show up right away no matter how much testing is done. The same goes for non-gamebreaking balancing issues that make things less fun and that might not show up until the mid- to long-term either. People essentially broke STHS by understanding it too well, just the same might happen with FHM once people start putting the same amount of research into it. And then there is smaller stuff like the downtime and skill-transition that come with the change itself, the inconsistencies in record keeping, the new entry barriers we create by using a commercial product, the exportability and displayability of stats and results and so on...

If we can go another 50 seasons before someone breaks FHM then we worry about it down the line in my opinion. However the issues you're bringing up have been resolved:
1. Inconsistencies in record keeping - We store all of our records on the site since seasons are disjointed. As is clearly displayed there have been different eras in SHL where changes in STHS or the site have created a big enough change to make the distinction between eras. With the sliders in FHM we can keep stats as close as possible but if they're too different we can create another era. We're changing as little as possible though. 50 game seasons, backups play a minimum of 6(?) games. Etc. Records will still be recorded on the site like normal, none of the old indexes are going to disappear and we're going to have indexes for FHM just like we do for STHS.
2. Commercial Product - STHS is a commercial product and GMs don't need FHM to submit lines just like we use now.
3. Exportability of Stats and Results - @esilverm is working on the index, I'm working on individual game box scores. This problem has already been solved and we'll have the solution visually available before the move.

I'm not as optimistic as you, plain and simple. These issues are being adressed, sure, but they aren't resolved and they will be impossible to resolve until we are already through with the change. Plus you also adressed some of the issues I see and left out the ones that I think are actually the most problematic ones: Bugs and balancing. We might have a successful switch and then run into a gamebreaking bug three seasons down the road that forces us to re-sim large chunks of the past season or to switch sims again. And no amount of testing can tell us how balanced the new sim will be, how well certain builds and rosters will do, how high the gap between high- and low-TPE players will be and so on. But of course this is also something that can be quite exciting and invigorating as well, I won't deny that. Still, I'm worried that people might break this new sim just as the old one not 50 seasons down the line but 2 or 3, unless we start putting in similar restrictions like we'd have to with STHS.

I don't think I have to remind you of the NSHL-example. Now in many cases this was a different situation that isn't directly comparable to this one but it captures quite well which opportunities and problems there come with a new engine. A lot of excitement early on but new issues arising pretty much on a weekly basis even though there was extensive testing. And one of the problems was that the first Season was massively unbalanced in terms of results even though everyone had started on a level playing field and TPE-separation was low. Who knows how bad this might become in a league like ours were players are at such different stages of their development. You can only account for this so much by testing with our current rosters. But once the change has happened GMs will be quick to try new strategies and players will try new builds that you haven't foreseen and it might be just as gamebreaking as what we are faced with now.

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11-26-2019, 11:09 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: People joined the SHL with certain expectations and fell in love with it and stayed for their own specific reasons. After such a drastic engine change it won't be the league that they originally signed up for anymore, who knows how this will impact their motivation. It's kinda hard to put into words but I think this might actually be the most important argument/risk. Just think of people who fall in love with certain video games or other works of fiction and can never warm up to the eventual sequel or remake, even if it is objectively better.

I think everyone came into the SHL hoping to create a player of their own. Just watch the promotional video we all saw in our inbox when we first started: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW4Ha_bk...e=emb_logo . Sniper, power forward, offensive defenseman, defensive defenseman. It's all a sham. The only difference between my build and my teammate's builds are that we have different levels of TPE. Our peak builds are all the same. We got sold essentially a bit of a lie and stayed because we made friends. This gives us the real opportunity for the experience we signed up for. I get what you're saying, change is hard for some. But if we can have our friends and the individual experience we're all craving I see no downside there.

Well that video didn't exist yet when I and many others joined but sure, it's a valid point. The league definitely looks shinier at the start than it looks once you have settled in after a few seasons but as I said, it works and by then other positive mechanisms of this community have taken over. But yes, I don't deny, as you said, that the experience would be better in a fully-functional FHM enviroment, I'm just not sure that we can get their without shipwrecking along the way.

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11-26-2019, 11:09 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: Changing engines in an existing league is a whole different beast than starting a new one on a new engine. The SHL is a behemoth for better and for worse, it comes with the benefit of a large and dedicated userbase while also being inflexible not for a lack of trying from the people involved, but for the many interconnected systems that are already in place (TPE, builds, PTs, media, contracts...). We don't just carry over our large user base, but a huge amount of baggage as well.

The only thing that's changing here is the update scale and builds. TPE numbers, media, contracts, PTs, etc. are all staying the same. The only thing that's really going to change for the average user is that you'll have different attributes and a new index. If you're a GM you'll update lines differently and if you're an updater you'll go back to using spreadsheets. The SHL is a community that we aren't planning on uprooting. We're just changed the sim engine, not all of this other stuff.

You misunderstood me here I think. I'm not talking about changing all these systems but about how interconnected they are, and only changing one or two will impact all the others whether you intend to or not. A new attribute system will require a new update scale which will require different amounts of TPE which would require changes to the PT or training system which would require changes to our monetary landscape and so on and so on... It's doable for sure but it is really hard to foresee all the rippling effects it will have beforehand.

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11-26-2019, 11:09 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: A new sim comes with new opportunities but I think that people underestimate the risk that comes with such a radical change to such an entrenched system. I would argue that there is about a 50-50 chance that this flat out kills the league. It could work out and if it does, the SHL will be better than it is now - but the failure risk is huge and so are the consequences. If we fail with this than the consequences won't just be a dip in activity and a few weaker draft classes, but the end of the league or it's shrinking to a much smaller size.

STHS is broken. Maybe you're right that there's a 50-50 chance we die if we move (I disagree but I'll play along), but there is a 100% chance SHL dies with STHS. The SHL can't continue with this broken sim where SC, PH, DF and EN are the only stats that improve your player. It's broken, there's no other way to put it. I think it's important to point out how positively so many people have reacted to this. Members are talking about coming back from inactivity because this is such a ground breaking change for hockey sim leagues. VHL and GOMHL still exist for those that for some reason want STHS, but we're going to see members come to SHL from there because of how exciting this is.

As I said in the beginning, I would disagree with this assessment that the SHL will certainly die if we stay on STHS and I think it is this talking in absolutes that some people are a bit annoyed by. But I absolutely grant you that an engine change could give us a short-term member boost because yes, it would be exciting for sure and could lead to old members returning and giving this league a shot again or for new ones to sign up. But I'm not so much worried about the transition period itself but the 3-5 seasons that come after it while everyone has to adapt and where people might grow disillusioned and new problems arise.

I mean we have all seen exciting new sim leagues start, with new sim engines or whole new sports that are tried out. And we also know that the large majority of them dies, even if they seem to be working fine after a season or two. Now the SHL does have a head start because of our established community and the time and ressources that people have already invested in it, so it's not a 90% failure risk like it would be with a new league, but still a significant one.

People love new stuff in the beginning and are excited about it, but then more often than not these things die not right away, but 2-5 seasons down the road because of all the previously unforeseen problems and because you can't hold the same level of excitement that you had at the start forever and especially the very dedicated people who set the league up or are in charge of the changes burn out rather quickly.

Lastly, I would also argue that we see the SHL too negatively. It is the most successful hockey sim league that I know of, even with an engine with severe flaws, and we have been doing exceptionally well for about 10 real life years now I think? I think we should celebrate that more instead of focusing on the negatives and problems so much. To be honest, when that whole HAM passing-thing came out I was quite surprised how quick many people were to give up on the SHL and doom and gloom it up. It almost seemed like many of them had just been waiting for a situation like this to pounce and provide the death blow to STHS which didn't have to be one.

You brought up VHL and GOMHL and the SHL far outclasses both these league in terms of sheer size but also member retention and depth of the experience (not even speaking of all the other short-lived leagues that existed over the years). And both the VHL and GOMHL are still fine leagues, yet the SHL seems to be much better at drawing in people and keeping them engaged, so maybe things haven't been so bad after all? We provide a deeper experience than VHL and GOMHL who are a bit more superficial, without having a super in-depth engine that requires an extensive investment to get started. Maybe this is exactly the sweetspot where we need to be, that crossroads between easy and complex. A new, superior-engine with a higher entry barrier might be more fun for us people involved in discussions like this one, the try-hards, the super actives or super experienced ones. But for new members and those with lower engagement it might be a higher obstacle and less engaging experience that leads to lower retention - and that's without all the bugs and balance issues that could potentially happen.