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Season 46 SHL Point Shares
#1

Season 46 SHL Point Shares

Link to Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...sp=sharing
****This took hours of work so PLEASE give me a good bonus, not some bullshit like 500K that i could word vomit in 10 minutes****

Well, this is going to be a lot less interesting than I thought it would be in light of @aaronwilson's admittedly far more intriguing and valuable analysis where he pulled shots for, shots against, giveaway, takeaway, and more data from the play by plays, which has been something I've been super intrigued in for a while and thought was a virtual impossibility. That data is fucking huge for evaluating player performance and he deserves to be paid ridiculously, especially if he can provide the tool for use each season. However, I gotta pay the bills for training and equipment so I'm still going to share this wonderful analysis with the league... I was able to calculate offensive and defensive point shares for every player in the SHL using the same method as Hockey Reference, probably the best site for NHL statistics so check it out. Anyways, there are two different metrics calculated here - Offensive Point Shares and Defensive Point Shares.

So now you may be asking what exactly a point share is. Point shares are essentially how many points in the standings a player contributed to his or her team through their play, further broken down into offensive and defensive point shares to account for different aspects of play. While it is far from a perfect estimation of player performance, it provides more context into the statistics made available to us in the SHL Index and thus becomes another tool to evaluate player performance and to compare players to each other. These statistics are also dependent on team performance, enabling us to better contextualize the value a player added over the course of a season. The higher a player's point share value, the more effective they played. Point shares can also be negative, meaning a player actually cost his or her team points.

How to Calculate Offensive Point Shares
Offensive Point Shares are much easier to calculate than Defensive Point Shares. Overall, it comes down to a player's marginal goals divided by marginal goals per point scored. But that probably means next to nothing to you. What the fuck is a marginal goal and what the fuck is a marginal goal per point scored? Yeah, it's confusing. So let's break this down...

Offensive Point Shares = (Marginal Goals) / (Marginal Goals Per Point Scored)

Marginal Goals Per Point Scored
Marginal Goals Per Point Scored is a league-wide statistic that is the same throughout the entire league. It is used to help narrow down exactly how many points in the standing a marginal goal is worth... Stick with me because marginal goals are coming. Marginal goals are a player-based statistic. So, to calculated marginal goals per point scored:

Marginal Goals Per Point Scored = (League Goals) / (League Points in Standings)

So a bit more clear, yeah? Or no. Either way... here is how it was calculated for the SHL in Season 46. I had to add up each team's goals scored to get league goals and add up each team's point in the standings to get league points. Simple. So... we get this:

2483 Goals / 880 Points = 2.82 Marginal Goals Per Point Scored

Marginal Goals
Now we're on marginal goals. This is calculated for each player. The formula for marginal goals is:

Marginal Goals = (Goals Created) – (7/12)*(Time on Ice)*((Goals Created by Skaters) / (Time on Ice for Skaters))

So this is confusing as hell, right? It essentially helps to normalize goals created by players by factoring in playing time and comparing all this information to the rest of the league. Anyways, first let’s take a look at goals created. It’s actually pretty simple. And now that we have primary and secondary assist numbers, this could actually be refined a bit further to give some more weight primary assists and less to secondary assists. Anyways, goals created is calculated as follows:

Goals Created = (Goals Scored + Assists*0.5)*(Team Goals / (Team Goals + Team Assists*0.5))

There we have it. This required me to allocate the team statistics as well. Let’s take a look at an example of Poopity Scoop because why not feature my player in my article? And besides, he’s a fucking stud. So, let’s take a look at the information needed:
  • Goals Scored: 4
  • Assists: 31
  • Team Goals: 184
  • Team Assists: 321

Now, we have everything. Time for some chug and plug.

(4 + 31*0.5)*(184 / (184 + 321*0.5)) = 10.42 Goals Created

So now, let’s get back to marginal goals. For a refresher, the formula is the following:

Marginal Goals = (Goals Created) – (7/12)*(Time on Ice)*((Goals Created by Skaters) / (Time on Ice for Skaters))

We now have goals created. Now we need Time on Ice, Goals Created by Skaters, and Time on Ice for Skaters. We can get this information from the spreadsheet so now we have this, which has all the necessary information to figure out Poopity Scoop’s Marginal Goals:

Goals Created: 10.42
Time on Ice: 1218 mins
Goals Created By Skaters: 2456.44
Time on Ice for Skaters: 238,118 mins

Marginal Goals = (10.42) – (7/12)*(1218)*((2456.44) / (238118)) = 3.133

And now that we have Poopity Scoop’s marginal goals, we can easily find out his offensive point shares. See the calculation below:

Offensive Point Shares = (Marginal Goals) / (Marginal Goals Per Point Scored)
3.133 Marginal Goals / 2.82 Marginal Goals Per Point = 1.11 Offensive Point Shares

And there you have it. Offensive Point Shares were calculated in the same way for each player. Essentially, Offensive Point Shares are an attempt to better contextualize a player’s offensive output in relation to both the performance of the league as a whole and his or her team.

How to Calculate Defensive Point Shares
I hope you didn’t think Offensive Point Shares were confusing or difficult. If so, you’re really in for something here because Defensive Point Shares are even more complicated. However, you will see what they boil down to is quite similar, the difference being Offensive Point Shares involve marginal goals for while Defensive Point Shares involve marginal goals against. Thus, the formula for Defensive Point Shares can be seen below:

Defensive Point Shares = (Marginal Goals Against) / (Marginal Goals Per Point Scored)

So there you have it. Marginal Goals Against, though. This is a fucking bitch and a half to calculate but let me show you because why the fuck not. I need cash and maybe one or two of you people will be interested in this and appreciate just how annoying it was to calculate it.

Marginal Goals Against
So, let’s look at the formula for marginal goals against. Now you get to see that all this bitching from me is justified, maybe even understating just how annoying this is. Then again, did I build something to parse through all the play by plays? Nahhh so maybe I should just shut up and take my money for doing something far less useful.

Marginal Goals Against = (Proportion of Team Time on Ice) * (Proportion of team marginal goals against assigned to skaters) * (Position Adjustment) * (Team marginal goals against) + (Plus/Minus Adjustment)

Yeah. What in the actual fuck. So let’s break this down slowly and carefully. Let’s start with Proportion of Team Time on Ice. This one is simple enough.

Proportion of Team Time on Ice = (Time on Ice) / (Sum of Team Time on Ice for All Skaters)

Let’s continue doing this for Poopity Scoop. So the information we can easily get from the index is his Time on Ice. To get the sum of team time on ice for skaters, we just sum all the time on ices for skaters on the team. Carefully note that doing this required me to take extra care of those players who were on multiple teams in a season. For both Offensive Point Shares and Defensive Point Shares, there were different calculations for their point share values on their different teams, which were then summer together. Anyways, for Poopity Scoop, we have the following:

Time on Ice: 1218 Mins
Sum of Team Time on Ice for Skaters: 14,957 Mins

Proportion of Team Time on Ice = 1218 / 14,957 = 0.0814

So there we have it, nice. We’re like 5% of the way there to calculating Defensive Point Shares. Yeah, I calculated that number exactly also. I promise. Now for the “proportion of team marginal goals against assigned to skaters”. Yeah. Say that ten times fast. Fucking broken tongue shit right there. Anyways, this is calculated for each team rather than for each player. I’ll show you the formula below:

Proportion of Team Marginal Goals Against Assigned to Skaters = (7-2*((Team Shots Against) / (League Team Shots Against Average))) / 7

So… let’s continue with Poopity Scoop and calculate this bitch of a statistic for the Minnesota Chiefs. The shots against totals were supposed to be shots against per minute but I wanted to simplify this a bit because, realistically, the margin of error is quite small that will only be slightly impacted by the number of OT games played by a team… which still will not be exact unless I go into the box scores to find out exactly how many minutes each OT game lasted. Yeah, no thanks.

Team Shots Against: 1614
League Team Shots Against Average: 1578.8125

So now, we can calculation our Proportion of Team Marginal Goals Against Assigned to Skaters for the Chiefs.

(7-2*((1614) / (1578.8125))) / 7
0.7079 = Proportion of Team Marginal Goals Against Assigned to Skaters

We’re slowly getting there. Slowly. Maybe take a lunch break now and come back because we got some more annoying math coming up for you. And it will take plenty of brain power, maybe even grab your thinking caps before coming back.

Okay, you’re back? Good. Hope your lunch was delicious because we got some work to do. We’re now on Team Marginal Goals Against. Here is a formula:

Team Marginal Goals Against = (1 + (7/12)) * (Team Games) * (League Goals Per Game) - (Team Goals Against)

We’re going to calculate this for the Chiefs again. Here’s the variables that we need to figure this Team Marginal Goals Against out.

Team Games: 50
League Goals Per Game: 3.1
Team Goals Against: 165

Annnnnd we can do some maths again! Here we gooooooo:

Team Marginal Goals Against = (1 + (7/12)) * (50) * (3.1) - (165) = 80.417

Next up we got Plus/Minus Adjustment. This one is a real doozy and it’s done for each player, with separate calculations for defense or offense within each team just to complicate the hell out of things. It’s essentially done to give a relative plus/minus rating as this point share thing is all about normalizing statistics relative to a player’s team and position as much as possible to come up with some sort of approximation. Here is our formula:

Plus/Minus Adjustment = (1/7) * (Position Adjustment) * ((Plus/Minus) – (Time on Ice) * ((Team Plus/Minus for Position) / (Team Time on Ice for Position)))

Wow. Anyways, you’ll see something interesting – the position adjustment. This is just a modifier for position – forward or defense. The value is 5/7 for forwards and 10/7 for defensemen to basically account for the fact that defensemen are more relied upon defensively. A very rough estimation of how much, though. It’s hard to quantify that, though, because it even depends based on player. I think maybe forwards are being a bit undervalued here now that I think about it, though. Oh well. Let’s do this for Poopity Scoop again. Our variables are:

Position Adjustment: 10/7
Plus/Minus: 23
Time on Ice: 1218 Mins
Team Plus/Minus for Position: 24
Team Time on Ice for Position: 5765 Mins

And now for calculating Poopity Scoop’s Adjusted Plus/Minus:

Plus/Minus Adjustment = (1/7) * (10/7) * ((23) – (1218) * ((24) / (5765)))
Plus Minus Adjustment = 3.659

Okay, okay, okay. We’re nearly here. Now we want to calculate the marginal goals against for the player. This is the next to last step! Congrats if you’ve made it here. If you have, comment “Thanks Baelor. Very cool” in the comments and I’ll uprep you for sure and maybe give you some sort of shoutout and tell you you’re great because you are! Anways, marginal goals against…

Marginal Goals Against = (Proportion of Team Time on Ice) * (Proportion of Team Marginal Goals Against Assigned to Skaters) * (Position Adjustment) * (Team Marginal Goals Against) + (Plus/Minus Adjustment)

If you’ve been paying attention well, you’ll realize that we’ve done all this work already! That’s great news for you and me. But if you’re feeling lazy, let me put all these values in one place. You can refer above to how they were calculated in case you forget.

Proportion of Team Time on Ice: 0.0814
Proportion of Team Marginal Goals Against Assigned to Skaters: 0.7079
Position Adjustment: 10/7
Team Marginal Goals Against: 80.417
Plus/Minus Adjustment: 3.659

So now… we can do the thing. We can calculate our Marginal Goals Against for Poopity Scoop.

Marginal Goals Against = (0.0814) * (0.7079) * (10/7) * (80.417) + (3.659)
Marginal Goals Against = 10.282

And now… for the final trick. We can now calculate Poopity Scoop’s Defensive Point Shares.

Defensive Point Shares = (Marginal Goals Against) / (Marginal Goals Per Point Scored)
Defensive Point Shares = 10.282 / 2.82 = 3.646

And there we have it! You now know how to calculate Offensive and Defensive Point Shares! You can find Total Point Shares by adding Offensive and Defensive Point Shares. Again, this is an estimation of how many points in the standings a player added to his or her team. And this value can be negative. Let’s take a look at our leaders.

Total Point Shares
F Bobby Watson Chiefs - 9.41
F Terrance Nova Chiefs - 9.30
F Dick Skillstedt Chiefs - 8.57
F Viktor Marius Stampede - 7.69
F Teddy Cuddles Blizzard - 7.29
F Luke Atmey syndicate - 7.02
D Jon Toner Panthers - 6.91
F Dani Forsberg Platoon - 6.74
D Ludwig Koch Schroder Platoon - 6.71
F Flacko Lagerfield :barracudas: - 6.70

As you can see, forwards are even a bit overrepresented. So maybe my statement on forward position adjustment being too low is wrong. Anyways, because of this, I want to also look at total point shares for defensemen.

Total Point Shares - Defensemen
D Jon Toner Panthers - 6.91
D Ludwig Koch Schroder Platoon - 6.71
D Toivo Kosonen Panthers - 6.33
D Tatu Makela Stampede - 5.95
D Tigole Bitties Wolfpack - 5.87*
D Bob Bergen Stars - 5.66
D Richard Physt Stars - 5.53
D Ben Dover Steelhawks - 5.34
D GOD McZehrl Stampede - 5.22
D Jack Tanner pride - 4.83

Sooooo, let’s now take a look at Offensive and Defensive Point Shares. Going to break each down by positions.

Offensive Point Shares - Forwards
F Bobby Watson Chiefs - 7.34
F Terrance Nova Chiefs - 7.22
F Dick Skillstedt Chiefs - 6.63
F Teddy Cuddles Blizzard - 5.94
F Viktor Marius Stampede - 5.86
F Trevor Wilson Platoon - 5.26
F Luke Atmey syndicate - 5.26
F Flacko Lagerfield :barracudas: - 5.01
F Logan Jensen Renegades - 4.83
F Dani Forsberg Platoon - 4.80

Offensive Point Shares - Defensemen
D Ludwig Koch Schroder Platoon - 3.36
D Tigole Bitties Wolfpack - 2.82
D Jon Toner Panthers - 2.58
D Ben Dover Steelhawks - 2.53
D The Dude Renegades - 2.51
D Sven Brokstad syndicate - 2.24
D Tor Tuck Blizzard - 2.03
D Tatu Makela Stampede - 2.02
D Bob Bergen Stars - 1.98
D Tig Murphy Steelhawks - 1.94

Defensive Point Shares - Forwards
F Terrance Nova Chiefs - 2.07
F Matthew Auston Panthers - 2.07
F Bobby Watson Chiefs - 2.06
F Roman Augustus Specters - 1.99
F Dani Forsberg Platoon - 1.94
F Dick Skillstedt Chiefs - 1.94
F Joshua Woodcroft Panthers - 1.91
F Sophia Bennett Panthers - 1.91
F Crossfit Jesus Platoon - 1.85
F Viktor Marius Stampede - 1.83

Defensive Point Shares - Defensemen
D Toivo Kosonen Panthers - 4.50
D Richard Physt Stars - 4.45
D Jon Toner Panthers - 4.34
D Adam Kaiser Specters 4.02
D Geoff Moore Chiefs - 4.01
D Tatu Makela Stampede - 3.92
D GOD McZehrl Stampede - 3.82
D Poopity Scoop Chiefs - 3.65
D Bob Bergen Stars - 3.58
D Ludwig Koch Schroder Platoon - 3.34

Now, let’s look at the players who are especially one-dimensional. For most offensively one-dimensional, players are ranked by the difference between Offensive Point Shares and Defensive Point Shares with a qualifier that Defensive Point Shares are below 1. For most defensively one dimensional, players are ranked by the difference between Defensive Point Shares and Offensive Point Shares with a qualifier that Offensive Point Shares are below 1.

Most Offensively One Dimensional Forwards
F Trevor Wilson Platoon - 5.26 OPS - 0.79 DPS
F James Dekens Rage - 4.29 OPS – 0.92 DPS
F Florence Clijsters Platoon - 3.79 OPS – 0.67 DPS
F Dayymo Ralchankinov Platoon - 3.20 OPS – 0.64 DPS
F Alex Winters Rage - 3.41 OPS – 0.90 DPS
F Tony Pepperoni Blizzard - 2.97 OPS – 0.77 DPS
F Jeff Brogen pride - 2.88 OPS – 0.81 DPS
F Eriks Skalbergs Steelhawks - 1.97 OPS – 0.08 DPS
F Cash Savage :barracudas: - 2.79 OPS – 0.97 DPS
F David Fantobens :barracudas: - 2.16 OPS – 0.52 DPS

Most Offensively One Dimensional Defensemen
D The Dude :rengades: - 2.51 OPS – 1.82 DPS
D Sven Brokstad syndicate - 2.24 OPS – 2.22 DPS
D Chippy Chiclets Blizzard - 1.23 OPS -1.25 DPS
D Ben Dover Steelhawks - 2.53 OPS – 2.82 DPS
D Tig Murphy Steelhawks - 1.94 OPS – 2.27 DPS
D Nour Harrak Steelhawks - 1.80 OPS – 2.20 DPS
D Tor Tuck Blizzard - 2.03 OPS – 2.49 DPS
D Liam O’Callaghan Renegades - 1.38 OPS – 2.08 DPS
D Brady McIntyre Blizzard - 1.48 OPS – 2.21 DPS
D Barret MacCarthy Rage - 1.35 OPS – 2.10 DPS

Most Defensively One Dimensional Defensemen
D Chuck Goody Jr. Dragons - -1.22 OPS – 3.07 DPS
D Geoff Moore Chiefs - 0.26 OPS – 4.01 DPS
D Jean-Pierre Gay Steelhawks - -1.22 OPS – 2.41 DPS
D Adam Kaiser Specters - 0.73 OPS – 4.02 DPS
D Shoyu Kikkoman :barracudas: - -0.82 OPS – 2.47 DPS
D Nat Emerson Platoon - -0.84 OPS – 2.27 DPS
D Maximillian Egger Wolfpack - -1.07 OPS – 2.02 DPS
D Mikhaul Petrikov syndicate - -0.40 OPS – 2.67 DPS
D Michael Owens :barracudas: - -0.84 OPS – 2.19 DPS
D Svatoslav Bodnar syndicate - -0.66 OPS – 2.17 DPS

Most Defensively One Dimensional Forwards
F Daniel Smeb syndicate - -0.30 OPS – 1.68 DPS
F Kyle Keenan Jr. syndicate - -0.93 OPS – 0.43 DPS
F Mikkel Haugen syndicate - 0.24 OPS – 1.34 DPS
F Steven Moyer pride - -0.11 OPS – 0.98 DPS
F Paddy O’Sullivan Dragons - 0.01 OPS -1.08 DPS
F Rainbow Dash Dragons - 0.07 OPS – 1.06 DPS
F Bernard Freeman Blizzard - 0.31 OPS – 1.11 DPS
F Kevin Kazarian Barracuda - 0.88 OPS – 1.66 DPS
F Ignatius Blunt Jets - 0.55 OPS – 1.06 DPS
F Jack Kennedy syndicate - 0.84 OPS – 1.26 DPS

[b]Team Expected Points/b]
Buffalo Stampede: 29.11 OPS | 27.96 DPS | 57.08 TPS
Calgary Dragons: 16.06 OPS | 23.98 DPS | 40.04 TPS
Chicago Syndicate: 14.67 OPS | 24.20 DPS | 38.87 TPS
Edmonton Blizzard: 28.47 OPS | 20.78 DPS | 49.26 TPS
Hamilton Steelhawks: 26.97 OPS | 19.82 DPS | 46.78 TPS
Los Angeles Panthers: 22.03 OPS | 25.92 DPS | 47.95 TPS
Manhattan Rage: 28.73 OPS | 22.32 DPS | 51.05 TPS
Minnesota Chiefs: 32.40 OPS | 17.72 DPS | 50.13 TPS
New England Wolfpack: 12.54 OPS | 20.89 DPS | 33.43 TPS
New Orleans Specters: 20.95 OPS | 28.70 DPS | 49.64 TPS
San Francisco Pride: 19.50 OPS | 24.56 DPS | 44.06 TPS
Tampa Bay Barracudas: 19.69 OPS | 22.97 DPS | 42.66 TPS
Texas Renegades: 25.05 OPS | 18.04 DPS | 43.09 TPS
Toronto North Stars: 25.02 OPS | 24.75 DPS | 49.77 TPS
Winnipeg Jets: 11.85 OPS | 18.98 DPS | 30.83 TPS
West Kendall Platoon: 33.25 OPS | 22.71 DPS | 55.96 TPS

[Image: Marius_buffalo.png]

08-24-2018, 01:08 PMWannabeFinn Wrote: Ah yes, the veteran meme player. A surefire bet for maybe 400 TPE Tongue
05-23-2020, 02:25 PMWannabeFinn Wrote: Scoop AINEC
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^^^^^ Thank you JSSSSS
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^^^^Credits to Snussu^^^^

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#2

I don't fully understand it but I like this a lot, any way to calculate it for SMJHL too?

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#3

03-25-2019, 01:30 AMaaronwilson Wrote: I don't fully understand it but I like this a lot, any way to calculate it for SMJHL too?

It's basically a rough method for standardizing players' offensive and defensive contributions with limited statistics available. See the link here:

https://www.hockey-reference.com/about/p...hares.html

And yes, it can be calculated for the SMJHL. It's a lot of work so not sure I will do that lol but you can follow the procedure in the link above, in the OP, and the spreadsheet I posted that you can look at the formulas for clarification if anything isn't quite clear.

[Image: Marius_buffalo.png]

08-24-2018, 01:08 PMWannabeFinn Wrote: Ah yes, the veteran meme player. A surefire bet for maybe 400 TPE Tongue
05-23-2020, 02:25 PMWannabeFinn Wrote: Scoop AINEC
[Image: Skree.gif] [Image: Skree.gif] [Image: Skree.gif]





[Image: Poppity.png]
^^^^^ Thank you JSSSSS
[Image: Poopity_Scoop_1.png]
^^^^Credits to Snussu^^^^

[Image: Scoop.png]
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#4

Ilike

Especially including formulas. Very nice touch.
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#5

I'm one dimensional fasho. Lots of hours in this, much appreciated!

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3 time Four Star Cup Champion S40-S42
S43 Jesster Trophy Nominee Winner

Scored my first SHL goal in just my second SHL game. 2. Manhattan Rage , James Dekens 1 (Mikael Talo 1, Sigurd Hansen 1) at 18:39
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#6
(This post was last modified: 03-25-2019, 06:55 PM by twils.)

03-24-2019, 10:36 PMBaelor Swift Wrote: Most Offensively One Dimensional Forwards
F Trevor Wilson Platoon - 5.26 OPS - 0.79 DPS

What is defence?

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300+ Career Goals, 750+ Career Points
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#7

This is pretty interesting! I was surprised to find that my player (who I basically made to be as offensive as possible) isn’t as bad defensively as I thought.

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#8

Spreadsheet starts out sorted alphabetically by first name, literally unusable

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#9
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2019, 01:15 PM by Baelor Swift.)

03-26-2019, 12:29 PMMavfatha Wrote: Spreadsheet starts out sorted alphabetically by first name, literally unusable

I think you need to learn how to use google sheets before calling it unusable.

Edit: Because I'm not an asshole and it may be helpful for those who may otherwise ask instead of calling it unusable without consulting with the one who made the spreadsheet or even conducting a simple google search...


[Image: Marius_buffalo.png]

08-24-2018, 01:08 PMWannabeFinn Wrote: Ah yes, the veteran meme player. A surefire bet for maybe 400 TPE Tongue
05-23-2020, 02:25 PMWannabeFinn Wrote: Scoop AINEC
[Image: Skree.gif] [Image: Skree.gif] [Image: Skree.gif]





[Image: Poppity.png]
^^^^^ Thank you JSSSSS
[Image: Poopity_Scoop_1.png]
^^^^Credits to Snussu^^^^

[Image: Scoop.png]
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#10

You are inusable

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#11

That's pretty interesting, want this for SMJHL

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#12

"oh 1.22 OPS that's not too bad"

*Sees it is -1.22*

"Oh Jesus fuck"

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#13

03-26-2019, 01:12 PMBaelor Swift Wrote:
03-26-2019, 12:29 PMMavfatha Wrote: Spreadsheet starts out sorted alphabetically by first name, literally unusable

I think you need to learn how to use google sheets before calling it unusable.

Edit: Because I'm not an asshole and it may be helpful for those who may otherwise ask instead of calling it unusable without consulting with the one who made the spreadsheet or even conducting a simple google search...


Woah sorry that was 100% sarcasm, my bad. This was an awesome project and I do understand how google sheets works/why it is sorted like that.

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#14
(This post was last modified: 03-30-2019, 12:43 PM by Pingy Pingu.)

@Baelor Swift
HEY BAELOR
POOPITY SCOOP
AYAYYAYYA
OOGLEY BOOGLEY
BOOPEDY DOO
AYYAYYAYAYAYA NOOT NOOT

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