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GM Tribune - Winnipeg Jets (no I'm not quitting lol)
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approx. 3700 words, ready for grading

The Player's Manager's Tribune

Winnipeg Jets : Offseason Changes, the Draft, Trades, and the Madness Behind the Method

This piece is inspired by the recent SHN article analyzing the various offseason trades, and in particular the writers' analysis of the trade in which the Jets acquired Yoshimitsu Mcleod. The consensus of the writers was that it was a questionable (at best!) move on my part, which I felt was unfair, and replied therein as to why I thought they were wrong. I don't need to harp on that any longer, except to preface all of this by saying I love the media that people do and I hope nothing I said or say would ever discourage people from sharing their views and takes. I might not agree with you, and if I do, I'll tell you why, but always know that you are welcome to express your opinions!

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A couple of people expressed that they enjoyed hearing about things from a GM point of view, so in my not-inconsiderable egotism combined with my need for more SHL bucks, I thought I might share with you some behind-the-scenes musings that go on when considering how to build a team. There are a number of factors which have to be weighed when you think about making a trade, or drafting someone, or signing a free agent, or contract negotiations.



Some of these factors, in no particular order, are:



1. TEAM CULTURE/LR ATMOSPHERE/PERSONALITY

This, in some ways, is a simple formula: -> more activity = better <- It's important in our league to have an engaged and positive atmosphere, where everyone is included but nobody is pressured. The main medium for team communication these days is Discord - the more topics people can talk about and find areas of common interest, the more likely they are to keep coming back! So keeping engaged there is important for a manager, and finding ways to keep your team engaged is a great way to build camaraderie, I have seen channels like pokemons, trivia, memeing, cooking, music, etc. All of these are fun ways to keep people active.

As well, successful teams often have a 'brand' which they use to build an 'us against them' mentality - think S20's Renegods, or BuffaloBros, or Chomp Chomp Water Dogs - things you can rally the troops around and build an identity. Taking over the Jets who have a huge historical legacy as an original SHL team (I won't get into the whole 'Jets' SHL vs NHL argument at this time but it is a topic for future discussion, I think!) was a bit daunting, as in some ways the Jets brand of loyalty, quality, and commitment was not something I would want to change, and I know that there's a lot of ghosts looking over my shoulder to make sure I honour that legacy during my tenure at the helm.

So obviously you look for someone who can enhance that image and be a good fit for the team when you are considering adding players to the team. Sometimes you also look at players who have a previous connection along the way - it is no coincidence that certain SMJHL teams seem to have a pipeline to certain SHL teams, because there's familiarity there and it can be easier to feel comfortable in a place where you know some people. When someone vouches for you, it makes it easier to take a chance on them. By the same token, sometimes people create bad reputations and it can make you wary of bringing in a player who might have a cloud over their head, fairly or not. Generally, I am someone who always believes in giving people second chances, but there are times when that can be difficult to do.

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2. CURRENT STRENGTH OF ROSTER

The ultimate goal of every team is to win the Challenge Cup - you want to ice the best team you can. There's no 'one move' which is going to win you the Cup, but you want to try to incrementally improve with every move you make. The bulk of trades and free agency signings probably fit into this category, as you look for ways to get better.

My first season as GM was the last season of STHS, and I thought we had a good chance to make the playoffs but we were just a couple games short. Unfortunate but the team was built for typical Simon T success - a handful of superstuds who would carry the team to glory because that's how that SIM worked. But then FHM came along and I was quickly and brutally awakened to the new reality - the old approach was not going to suffice. I wasn't familiar with FHM prior to the switchover so it was a harsh tutorial.

So when I look at our current roster, we have lots of good pieces - some elite TPE vets like Brain, Shepard, McScruff, and Muerto who are in their peak seasons now; a few basically inactive lower TPE vets like Svensson, Whacker, and Spanish - serviceable but expendable; and then a group of young and still-growing players like Barron, Ibrahimovic Jr., Zizagooney, Crudelli, and Bale; and 3 blue chip rookies in Liljestrom, Sutherland, and new starting goalie Strom Chamberlain - all 3 have surpassed expectations so far but they are rookies and will likely have some growing pains but that's ok.

Now, going into this offseason, I was not interested in moving any of these active players because they have been great and like I said earlier, loyalty is an important quality of this organization and I have been blown away by the commitment everyone has to stick together and work towards something really great. I will say right now that anyone that ever says they want to retire a Jet will always be given that respect. Conversely, if anyone ever expressed that they were feeling like going somewhere new or wanted to be an FA, I will always respect that and do what I can to make a transition easy as possible.

So that left pretty much the 3 roster spots taken by inactives as the main areas to try and improve. I think we are not in a position right now where blowing it all up and rebuilding is the right strategy - we have a rookie goalie, yes, but he is coming in at over 900 TPE which is better than our starter from the last few seasons - we have 4 defenseman above 1000 with only 1 regressing and the rest coming in stronger than last season. LIlejestrom replaces Grease on the blueline but is not really a downgrade even though he's a rookie. Forward is mostly stronger as only 1 player regressed to fewer TPE than they had last season, and rookie Sutherland is an improvement on the retired Colt. So all in all, I see improvement in all areas this season over last.

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3. FUTURE STRENGTH OF ROSTER / DRAFTING & PROSPECTS

So as mentioned, looking at our roster we have 8 active players S48 or younger who are earning steady TPE. And then 5 players who are in or nearing regression (4 of whom are actively fighting it), and the 3 aforementioned inactives. Spanish is the lowest TPE player but he's not regressing and a solid draft pick will surpass him in 2 seasons. Svensson and Whacker start regressing next season, so it's a bit more urgent to replace them sooner than later.

Where we were in trouble was the prospect pool, since bringing up the 3 rookies left only 1 prospect, an inactive goaltender. So we needed to use our draft picks to restock that cupboard.

At this point, we had our first round pick (which the lotto revealed to be 6th OV), our second and third round picks (21st and 37th) and NOLA's 3rd, which of course they won the Cup which made it the last pick in the 3rd round (48th OV). We had picks beyond that also, but Salary Cap realities meant that we would likely only be able to sign 3 of them, so I was willing to use at least one of these picks as collateral. More to come on that later!

I had begun scouting pretty early as this was shaping up to be a very strong draft, and the more I talked to prospects the more excited I was that we would be adding an elite prospect with the 6th OV, a very good prospect with 21, and a potential gem in the 3rd. So, all good there!

The other thing I think is maybe important to say here is that, in comparison to other GMs and media pundits, I don't really give future picks a lot of value (apart from 1sts). My philosophy is you can just keep trading future picks for current picks if you need to, there's always someone who wants to trade a pick away. So I recognize that is not a common philosophy and that's probably why a lot of people question my trades because I don't place a lot of value on future 3rds, for instance.

4. SALARY CAP

With a finite amount of money that teams are allowed to spend on contracts, you have to be cognizant of where you are spending that cap and how much you have to spend. Going into the draft I had 2.5M to spend on these 3 prospects I planned to draft. It was important to look at prospects' bank account and even be upfront about the fact I wouldn't be able to give a big salary this season. I could release my inactives and try to replace them with something cheaper but I decided against that as there really wasn't any IFAs out there which would give better value. Also I pretty much knew I would not be involved in any FA talks because I just didn't see a way to make it work since almost any upgrade would involve a player in a higher income bracket. I had committed the bulk of my cap already and was ok with that, but there was very little wiggle room (or so I thought! More to come on this later!). But it is a very real consideration and sometimes you are really working the margins to try and make everything fit within the budget.



5. PLAYER BUILD/TPE/EXPECTED ROLE/FHM STUFF

As I mentioned, FHM was a bit of a steeper learning curve but it became obvious that building to a certain role is important and will be something to consider when looking at adding or removing someone from the equation. Now, I will straight up right here say a big weakness I have is that I understand FHM a lot less than a lot of other people, and that is one of the reasons why I asked Strom to be my co-GM, because he has a deeper understanding of how it all works than I do! (That's not the only reason he's the co, but it's a big reason!)

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One thing people don't see is trades that DIDN'T happen - negotiations take place but an agreement can't be reached. This is relevant because prior to the draft, I was talking to a team about a pick/player swap that would have given us a higher TPE defenseman than Whacker - in my mind an improvement! But my coGM and FHM guru nixed the idea because that players's build was not an ideal fit and it wouldn't be worth dropping in the draft to pick him up. And when you are looking at making any trades, obviously it makes sense to look for players who would be well-suited to the likely role they would have on the team.

Now, this is less relevant when considering Drafting, because a prospects build is so raw it isn't really important at the moment - but, it may help to know what their planned build/role is in the future to gauge the potential fit. As well, having someone with a deeper knowledge than I do can give better build advice when players are doing updates. That being said, I generally have the approach that we let the player build how they want - it's their player after all! - but give guidance when asked and help try to show how the different attributes affect how your player will respond in the sim. Also keeping everyone informed as to when TPE earning opportunities arise!

6. WHO'S AVAILABLE? THE TRADE BLOCK, THE DRAFT

People may not know this, but there's a separate hidden GM section of the forums! Within that section is The Trade Block (dun dun dunnnn) where GMs can post up assets (players or picks) that are available or they are willing discuss moving, as well as what they would be looking for in return. There's an agreement not to publicly disclose who may be on the block, but suffice to say sometimes teams are sellers and sometimes they are buyers and sometimes people just need or want a change. So if someone is OTB it is usually the starting point of trade negotiations and the teams try to come up with a deal in which both feel they are getting return value in exchange for what they give up.

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Sometimes a player pops up on the block who is very intriguing and you kick tires to see what the exchange is. Sometimes negotiations are easy, sometimes they require a bit more wrangling, but to me a good trade is if both teams feel they got a return they are satisfied with. Sometimes a player is in high demand and the GM holding them can play off bidders to raise the price, which can inflate the 'market value' of a player, so bidding wars can sometimes lead to a trade which seems to be an overpay, but you have to give to get.

And then there's Draft trades! Sometimes a pick has little value before the draft, but during the draft, all of a sudden you realize somebody is dropping and you make a snap decision to make a play for them. (By the way, the chaos and mayhem of the way we do our live draft is AWESOME and one of the seasonal highlights of being a GM). And when it is your pick, you have to sometimes pick between 2 or more players you really like, and know you can't have them all. Sometimes a player gets picked right before you wanted to take them, and you have to have a contingency plan if things don't shake out the way you want. I will say this last draft class was amazing and it led to some real tough decisions and you never want insult anyone by not drafting them, but you can't draft them all and that can be difficult to pass on someone you know is good quality.

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SO!

All that being said, here are the moves I made this offseason and a few comments on what my rationale was for making them:

PRE-DRAFT

1. The Mcleod Trade - https://simulationhockey.com/showthread.php?tid=107695 - I kind of already commented on this one in that comment thread on the SHN article but it worked on a lot of levels for us. A great person with a great reputation, improves the current roster, improves the future roster, fit in the salary cap, and was available. A couple draft picks to fill in the perceived difference in value between Svensson and Mcleod was the price to pay, but as I said, I recognize that some people probably value those picks higher than I do. Nonetheless, I feel confident that this was a reasonable move if not a blockbuster.

2. The Bojo Trade - https://simulationhockey.com/showthread.php?tid=108023 - so as mentioned, I had been doing a lot of scouting in anticipation of this draft, and was basically certain of being able to draft one of Bjerg, Lambert, Kondos, Big Terry, Oscarsson, Hutton, or Park - basically my top 7 rankings - they wouldn't all be available but certainly at least one of them would be, and I would have happily selected any of them and felt like it was a good pick.



But then a message comes through from BAP - am I interested in Bojo? Well of course I am, he would be a megaplus rating in 5 of those 6 categories. But at the same time I was a bit leery because I felt the cost would probably involve my S56 1st, and as confident as I am about being a better team this season, that S56 pick is a potential lotto pick in an expected Reddit Draft and I was reluctant to give that up. Especially after the last time I did that and it ended up being the 1st OV pick which was a bummer! We bounced around offers and counteroffers until it became obvious that it would take that 6th OV S55 1st to get it done, given how it all turned out, I expect that was their target return all along!

Anyway I wavered a bit, but I pretty much knew I was going to pay up to bring him to the team, and when JR gave the conditional pick to prove they weren't just going to sign bojo back as soon as his contract was up, I had no more reservations and jumped on it. Even though Pojo was a late create in his own draft class, and wasn't currently one of the top TPE earners, he is only 1 season out of his own draft and will be able to replace Whacker sooner than probably any of the players previously mentioned. So personally again I see this as a fair trade, with 2 high-value assets and a couple of medium-value assets being exchanged. So now I have back the 37th OV pick as well.

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THE DRAFT

So now, day of the draft, I have 21st, 37th, 48th OV and $2.0M of cap to spend. I decided I wasn't going to make any trades during the draft and would just use these picks and get the players I felt would be the best fit across all the categories listed above.

21. Zakkira Diporov - Sparky and I didn't even talk until the day of the draft - as much as I had been doing a lot of scouting and reaching out, even day of there were still people I hadn't had a chance to connect with! But Reid and roasty had suggested I might want to give him a look, and so we ended up chatting for almost an hour and I was really impressed. When it came time to pick, there were still plenty of really quality prospects available, but he stood out to me and I was happy to be able to select him.
37. Zelma Zuntnere - Jogurtaa is a long time member and member of the Latvian Mafia, a number of whom had recreated for this draft. Again, there were other players still available here who I had to agonize over and didn't want to necessarily pass on, but Jogurtaa has a great reputation, has some connections to players on the team through past associations, and a healthy $100M bank account :eyes: so it really was not that hard a decision to make
48. Fleetway Super Sonic - Taxman's last player was on the Jets and he had kinda faltered, but he mentioned he was really keen on FHM and it had reignited his spark. His lower TPE was a bit misleading as he was a later FA create, and this led to him being available to pick, and I was happy to bring him back into the fold as a prospect instead of an alumnus!

So at this point I feel I need to stop because I won't be able to afford any more players, leaving some still-quality players out there but what can you do, 3 active prospects plus a bojo out of this draft, I feel pretty good about it all!


POST-DRAFT


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The Ball trade - https://simulationhockey.com/showthread.php?tid=108539 - OK so hear me out on this one! I know it seems so odd and I can't actually argue with people who might look at this as a wtf move, but there was actually a reason behind it. As I said, I totally believed I was tapped out on budget and that's why I stopped drafting. I tell you now, I would have used that 53rd pick in Ball back in the draft if I had realized THIS SIMPLE TRICK THAT GMS HATE earlier. So, the only player I had left unsigned was Ignatius Blunt. I was waiting to sign them until after their regression, so they would only cost 3M instead of 4M, since they would drop below 1K TPE. But what I had failed to realize is that we still had a HTD available because of Grease retiring. So I could sign her at 2M instead of 3! Well fuck! So I noticed that Ball hadn't been signed yet and approached BUF about picking him up, since I could now pay all my draftees and still had a whole 500K left! I really don't like to see active players left hanging, and as mentioned, I was definitely considering drafting them at the time. So the trade wasn't so much a mistake as a CORRECTION of a mistake. I feel there is a safety trigger on this trade in that it only costs us a 2nd rd pick if Ball extends - which he isn't likely to do unless he's committed to building a roster-caliber player in the next 3 seasons, which if he does I will feel it is worth that pick. If not, well, a 3rd rd pick 3 seasons down the road is easy enough to replace if I have to but I don't think I'll miss it that much!

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So that was how I spent my summer! I hope it wasn't too boring and maybe gives some insight into why I am the way that I am.

I truly enjoy GMing and am happy to be back in the saddle. As mentioned, it is a thrill to manage a team that has had so many amazing people in this position previously and I hope people will still have a positive view of the Jets when it comes time for the next person to have their turn.



As always

Good Luck and Have Fun

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~Muerto aka Kez, GM, Winnipeg Jets
Jets  Jets  Jets  Jets  Jets  Jets

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#2

Good read Kez.

Cheers

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#3

Jesus, luke with more blood on his hands. When will it end?

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#4

Awesome read! loved getting the inside and in-depth look. More GMs should do this :eyes:


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#5

This was a great read, thanks bud

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#6

I do love this. Great read Kez Smile

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#7

I still think I’m going to write mine as planned haha.

Great job man.

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#8

J-e-t-s
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#9

Interesting read, thanks for this!

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#10

It was a pretty informative read, boss. Really good read.

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Outlungus
Former Players: Yoshimitsu McCloud (LW, #64) - Outlaws pride Platoon Jets Aurora Ireland
Won a Four Star Cup once, knew ninjutsu, picture editors hated him, never tried free agency
Anton Harrier (LW, #90) - Battleborn Rage Ireland
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#11

Idk, bojo is kinda of a scrub. I wouldn't trade for him

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#12

Go Jets Go!!!!

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#13

Go Kez!

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#14

Love the Bukowski imagery.

The article is probably great too but I admit I did not read it. Although after writing that now I'm going to have to read it. Soon

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#15

Excellent read!

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