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Dextaria · 11-01-2020, 07:52 PM

Ready for Grading

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This season the SJHN are doing season previews for each round of the SMJHL playoffs. Arkz, Shuff and I have analyzed each matchup and made our predictions while Juke will use the series stats to calculate the percent chance that each team will win the series (Example from last season’s SHL Challenge Cup final: here). These graphs will be updated daily so be sure to check back every so often to see what are your team chances!

KELOWNA KNIGHTS Knights

Shuff: The Knights took their first round matchup in seven games, winning game six and seven to move on past Anaheim. The Knights now draw the Whalers. The Knights sold at the deadline sending both Rotticus Scott (preseason) and Simon Takshak (midseason) to Vancouver, which will add another level of intrigue to this series.

Arkz: What a surprise! Congratulations to the Kelowna Knights for upsetting Anaheim and making it to the second round. Kelowna had a disappointing regular season, but they seemed to have picked it up when it mattered. They skated well against the Outlaws and upset a team that, at one point, had the second-highest point total in the league. Regardless how this following series goes against Vancouver, this season should be considered a success for the Knights. As Shuff mentioned, they traded some key pieces away for draft capital and still got farther than a team that bought at the deadline (Anaheim).

Dex: The Kelowna Knights are the worst team pointwise entering the second round. Looking at the series graphs against the Outlaws, it seems like the Knights were just able to make the big saves, and score the right goals, when they needed it. Certainly an uphill battle for the Knights but regardless it should be a good series for the Battle of BC. Especially with Scott and Takshak who got traded to Vancouver from Kelowna this season as Shuff mentioned.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: CHRIS GOODNAME
Quite a good name indeed, I must say. Against the Outlaws, Goodname put up four points, but was a -7. His advanced stats say he was great, with a CFrel% of 6.1%, and was extremely unlucky with a PDO of 89.5. He put up 19 points in the regular season, with a CFrel% of 4.1%.

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
Peter Ramsey, what a beast. Ramsey faced the most shots out of any goaltender in the first round with 257. To put that in context, Outlaws goalie Vincent Mietitore, who only played one minute less than Ramsey, faced 211. Fortunately for the Knights, Ramsey stood up to the test and had a GAA of 3.38 and a SV% of .907. While that was the highest GAA in the first round, I consider GAA a team stat and not indicative of a goaltender’s play. In terms of GR, Ramsey was second with 77. He wasn’t the most impressive goalie in the first round (that distinction belongs to Detroit’s Thor Odinson), but he still was consistent enough to keep Kelowna in it. He’ll have to find another gear against Vancouver, however.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
As FHM isn’t able to show playoff powerplay and penalty kill stats to my knowledge, I will be relying on the PPG stat from Juke’s graphs from the Kelowna-Anaheim series. The Kelowna Knights were scoring a number of powerplay goals that series averaging 0.43 powerplay goals per game. This is higher than their regular season average of 0.32 powerplay goals per game that saw their powerplay at 12.9%. Furthermore, their penalty kill was able to effectively stop the Outlaws powerplay that averaged 0.69 powerplay goals, limiting them to 0.14. It seems that the Knights’ special teams are trending in the right direction and could make a difference in this series.

VANCOUVER WHALERS Whalers

Shuff: The best team in the regular season, the Whalers are finally primed for their first serious run under GMs dmills and boom. This is on the back of a very strong S54 S55 and S56 draft class. They may lose up to 9 starters for next season so their window is limited. They then traded a few draft picks to acquire Rottius Scott (preseason) and Simon Takshak (midseason) to fully stack their roster top to bottom, giving up picks to further really commit to this season being their run at the Cup. The Whalers allowed 2.02 goals a game the least in the league by .7 goals (Armada). Their defense and defensive play by their forwards allowed them to surrender just 23.98 shots per game well better than the league average of 30.8. Their offense is there too, with the 3rd most goals in the league at 3.38 a game. Easily the favorite to win the championship the Whalers just have to do what they have been doing.

Arkz: Well, what can I add to Shuff’s wonderful detailed overview of the Whalers? As Shuff mentioned, Vancouver was the best team in the regular season and led the league from the start with few hiccups along the way. They’ve hedged some of the future on pick ups for this season in Scott and Takshak, showing that Vancouver is all in on this season. However, now that we’re in the playoffs the weight and pressure will all be on Vancouver to perform. They will be losing players this season to call ups, including many of their leading scorers. If Vancouver isn’t able to make a run this season, it could be some time before they find themselves in such a position again.

Dex: Entering the playoffs, the Vancouver Whalers 8 of their last 10 games. They weren’t able to win their last game to push their team to 80 points on the season, but regardless the team is still performing well. They had the second highest goals for per game in the last week of the regular season, and both goaltenders Jon St. Ark and Name Redacted put up save percentages above 0.920 with goals against average below 2.10 in that last week.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: DANIIL NIKIFOROV
Might as well watch the likely MVP. The Whalers just have to keep doing what they had been doing the entire season, and Nikiforov has been the biggest part of that. I’d also keep an eye on Luffy Richard, he is a 425 winger playing on the 4th line, expect big numbers from him in limited minutes.(I was so tempted to fit myself somewhere here but I won’t.)

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
Vancouver was one of the few teams in the league that actually fielded a two-headed monster in goal. While most teams started a backup that collected around 15 games or less, the Whalers featured two goalies that started 27 and 24 games apiece. The veteran, Name Redacted, is expected to get the start in the series. He boasted a 20-7-0 season, with a 2.25 GAA and .907 SV%. His backup, Jon St. Ark, comes into the playoffs with a 1.62 GAA and a .930 SV%. Whichever goalie Vancouver decides to start in the playoffs, Kelowna will have a challenge ahead of them.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
The Vancouver Whalers had a dominant penalty kill during the regular season at 89.6% which led the entire league. This allows the team to play physical and undisciplined sometimes, while still having confidence that their penalty kill can bail them out. Their powerplay on the other hand was surprising as it was below average even with all the lethal players on the team. It’s definitely not terrible but if the team would like to tweak something, this would be it in my opinion.

PREDICTIONS

Shuff: Whalers in 5. So for the second straight series I’ll pick the Knights to fall in five. They were down 3-2 to Anaheim, I wasn’t way off. But here Vancouver is the much better team, and I’ll take them (us?) in five. And you should all boo dex for refusing to give a prediction. BOOOO DEX BOOO.

Arkz: Look, I’m on the Whalers and the last thing I want to do is jinx my team. But look, Kelowna’s season is already a success and they are playing without the weight of expectation and that goes a long way. Still, this is potentially the most talented squad the Whalers have ever featured. I’ll echo Shuff, and say Whalers in 5, don’t @ me.

Dex: As a member and captain of this Vancouver Whalers team, I am going to hold back my predictions regarding my team. I hope for a good and intense series against the Kelowna Knights and may the better team win.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 1
KEL 0 - VAN 2
Arkz: So far this series has gone about the way we expected. Stretches of good play from Kelowna, but they just haven’t been able to keep up with the deep Vancouver squad. Kelowna is going to have to dig deep if they are going to stave off the potential sweep.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 2
KEL 0 - VAN 4
Shuff: Bring out the brooms, Vancouver with the sweep for the second straight season the Whalers win their first four playoff games. The Whalers hope to avoid last year’s fate where they lost the next four as well. Arkz and I both with the correct winner, however we thought the Knights would take a game here. And BOOOOO DEX for refusing to pick, BOOOOO.

PRESERIES GRAPH

SERIES GRAPHS (UPDATED DAILY)

THE VANCOUVER WHALERS WIN THE SERIES

GAME 1

0 - 4

Arkz: I could have sworn this game was a 3-2 win for Vancouver, but I must have been dreaming. No, instead this was a shutout victory for Vancouver, who started their rookie Jon St. Ark in the first game. Stopping all 23 shots against him, St. Ark helped establish the tone for the series as Vancouver wins convincingly 4-0.

GAME 2

2 - 6

Arkz: Although the final score to this game was 6-2, through the first half of the first period this game was incredibly close and competitive. Then the dam broke and the Whalers scored three in the first. Kelowna managed to battle back to a 4-2 score, but Vancouver was just out of reach and the Whalers went on to close it out.

GAME 3

1 - 4

Shuff: Vancouver wins 4-1, 2 goals in the third to seal the game. James Hagan opened the scoring, but Vancouver scored the next four, including one by Daniil Nikiforov.

GAME 4

2 - 4

Shuff: Name Redacted had to one up Jon St. Ark, so while St. Ark got the shutout to start the series Redacted gets one to end it. Faced just 20 shots, the Whalers defense was quite impressive all series long. Bring out the brooms Vancouver.

COLORADO RAPTORS Raptors

Shuff: A tight series with Quebec goes the way of Colorado and they move on to face Carolina. A matchup of the league's best two powerplays and 2 of the worst 3 PKs as dex will get to. Another round where special teams should be crucial. Getting just two goals with a man up in 7 games against Quebec (just .33 a game, half of the .66 a game they had in the regular season) speaks volumes about Quebec’s PK and ability to stay out of the box (they took just 30 PIM over the series with 16 of them coming in a game one loss). Colorado is likely happy to see a worse PK this round.

Arkz: That Colorado/Quebec series was interesting. I honestly did not expect Colorado to perform the way they did and basically smash the Citadelles in six games. With a series goal differential of 19-10, the Raptors won convincingly over a Quebec City squad that played well down the stretch. To me, the Raptors are a better version of the Knights. There’s some talent here, and the offense is peaking at just the right time. The Knights managed to score at least two goals in all their games in the season, and hung six on the Citadelles in the decisive game 6. The Raptors may be gearing up for a run here, if they are able to keep up that momentum.

Dex: I feel if you are to root for an underdog that could surprise this playoffs, I think it’s the Colorado Raptors. As mentioned in our round 1 previews, the Raptors came into the playoffs hot with outstanding play from both their offense and goaltending. This last series with Quebec City was no different as they averaged 3.17 goals per game with a goals against of 2.18. The team just seems to be clicking right now.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: YANNO ROSEJAC
As Arkz will say below (sorry Arkz I knew you’d say it) , Rosejac is a rookie. He had a great first round, a SV% of .917 good for second in the round and first of teams that won. A similar performance is one of many parts needed for a Colorado upset.

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
Shuff, you don’t know what I’m going to say in these reports. But yes, Colorado goalie Yanno Rosejac is a true rookie, still awaiting which SHL team will be drafting him at the end of the season. Rosejac was dominant in the series against Quebec City, even pitching a shutout in game three. It’s been a long season for Rosejac, but he’s peaking at the right time.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
For the Colorado Raptors, this is where they get the edge over the Kraken. The Raptors in the regular season had the best powerplay at 24.8% which was almost 4% higher than the Carolina Kraken powerplay. Their penalty kill at 80.7%, while not great, also was higher than Carolina penalty kill by around 5%. In this last series as well against the Citadelles, it seems that these trends continue as they averaged 0.33 powerplay goals, but also allowed 0.33 powerplay goals against per game.

CAROLINA KRAKEN Kraken

Shuff: Carolina. The 2 seed. Weren’t we just here before? The Kraken are once again the second seed in the SMJHL playoffs. Last season they fell in the semis to.. the number one seed? Might as well make fun of the playoff format. The Kraken first have to win this series before they worry about the next. This isn’t a team that does anything specific special, they have the 2nd best powerplay, they took the 2nd fewest penalties, they scored around half an extra goal per game than they allowed, with around 4 more shots than their opponent, and as arkz will get to, their goalie is nothing special. A team that really is greater than the sum of its parts.

Arkz: Carolina was the top team in the East, and it wasn’t really close. Still, the Kraken stumbled a little bit down the stretch, which may have more to do with them facing a number of teams that were playing for important seeding placements whereas Carolina had the second seed basically locked up. Still the Kraken will hope that the team from the first half of the season shows up instead of the one that played towards the end of the season.

Dex: The top dog of the East, the Carolina Kraken. Although they were the best team in the East, the Kraken still stumbled into the playoffs. Losing 6 of their last 11, the team hopes that it was just a fluke and that they can return to their conference leading form. As expected with 6 losses in their last 11 games, the team had the 4th worst goals for per game and their goaltending wasn’t spectacular either. The only bright spot in that last week was Vitecek who had 14 points, 10 of which were assists. So again, the Kraken better look to shake off this lull in their season quickly.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: AXEL FOLEY
The defender leads the Kraken in ice time, and is a stalworth on both sides of the ice. He had 42 points from the back end, with 13 coming the well-run powerplay (21% on the season). Watch for Foley to keep scoring points, and keep other offenses out of the Carolina zone.

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
Carolina features their starter, Blunt Man, who played in 34 games in the regular season, going 20-12-1 in that time. He had a couple of shutouts and a .903 SV%, which puts him right in the middle in terms of performance in the league. Fortunately for Blunt Man, his skaters are pretty skilled and are able to score enough goals to balance everything out, but Blunt Man will have to take it to another level if he wants to help his team make a run and get back to the semifinals.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
The penalty kill is really not the Carolina Kraken’s strong suit at 75.9% in the regular season, the league’s worst penalty kill. Thankfully for them, the team is extremely disciplined with the second fewest short handed chances at 83. Their powerplay on the other hand could be as lethal as the Raptors’. It’s at 20.9% and the team actually scored the second most powerplay goals. However, I think the Kraken’s strength is 5-on-5 and maybe they should try to stick to that and get a couple of powerplays for them. I would be worried if they start taking penalties.

PREDICTIONS

Shuff: Colorado is a good team. I do not at all want to take that away from them. I fully expect them to give Carolina quite a bit of trouble. But the Kraken were 20 games over .500 and the Raptors were exactly .500. The 4 game series was actually tied 2-2 each team taking a game on the road, and goals were tied 11-11. So I’ll predict a long series with the better team taking it. Carolina in 7.

Arkz: As Shuff mentioned, Carolina and Colorado tied in their season series, but many of those games were strangely lopsided. Yeah they finished with an 11-11 split, but when a team just didn’t have it, their opponent made them suffer. And I think that’s what we’ll find in the playoffs. Both teams can smell blood in the water when the other side isn’t giving it their all and they’ll exploit it. I’m going to go with the hot hand though, Colorado in 7.

Dex: I’m going with Arkz here. The Colorado Raptors have been my “underdog” team this playoff run. The team had good regular season offensive stats and it seems that their defense and goaltending was able to come together in the series against the Citadelles. With this, I think the Raptors can upset the number 2 team in the league. Colorado in 6.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 1
COL 0 - CAR 2
Arkz: Two games in, and two times Carolina has won with a 2-1 score. So far the Raptors have run into an incredibly hot goalie, but if Blunt Man loses a step there’s a good chance Colorado can find themselves back in this series.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 2
COL 1 - CAR 3
Shuff: Carolina is one game away. With all three of us having this series go long, with Dex and Arkz even giving Colorado the win, seeing a 3-0 lead for Carolina surprised us quite a bit. But this series is not over. They never are. Not until the fat lady sings.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 3
COL 1 - CAR 4
Dex: I think this series was a lot closer than it looked. The just Colorado Raptors took 2 big one-goal loses early and from that it is hard to climb back from being down 0-3. For the Kraken, things appear to be clicking for the next round. They've shown that their defense and goaltending can win games, and that their offense can bail them out in other games. Prediction-wise we were all pretty off, but Shuff did guess Carolina to move on.

PRESERIES GRAPH

SERIES GRAPHS (UPDATED DAILY)

THE CAROLINA KRAKEN WIN THE SERIES

GAME 1

1 - 2 (OT) Kraken

Arkz: Someone told me that Colorado won the first game in overtime, but I think I got pranked. Carolina actually was the team that clutched it out and won in overtime, but it was a competitive game from start to finish and Colorado has established themselves.

GAME 2

1 - 2

Arkz: This game also finished 2-1, but didn’t need overtime to get there, as Vincent Wolfe scored the game winner a minute and a half into the third. The story continues to be that Blunt Man is an absolute machine. He stopped over forty shots in this game to keep Carolina in it and stole a win from the Raptors. Carolina will hope he’s able to keep this up if they want to win.

GAME 3

3 - 6

Shuff: Blunt Man is just too good. 3 goals on 38 shots, while Carolina scored 6 on 33. Will this ever catch up to them? This was a tight game going into the third, but goals by Vitek Vitecek and Vincent Wolfe but it away.

GAME 4

5 - 1

Shuff: Rosejac with a great game for Colorado as the other goalie is able to win a game, letting up just one goal on 35 shots. Blunt Man allowed 5 on 33. And a five(!) point night for Hiroshi Ohira, scoring a goal and getting 4 assists! He was all over the ice.

GAME 5

4 - 7

Dex: The two teams were neck and neck to start the game. The game was tied 3-3 heading into the third period and that was when the Kraken offense took over the game. Goals from Hellstrom, Kozlov, and Smith gave Carolina the 2 goal lead in spite of Colorado's Makinen JR. scoring to try to keep the Raptors in it. In the dying minute Oda scored the empty netter to send the Kraken off to the semifinals.

MAINE TIMBER Timber

Shuff: Stumbling and bumbling through a first round against a team much worse than you is not exactly an inspiring way to start the playoffs. Maine was down 3-1 to St. Louis, and had to come all the way back to take it in seven. They are coming in hot, having forced themselves to win the last 3 games. Now they face a much better Newfoundland team. My unbold prediction is Maine will not win this series if they fall behind 3-1.

Arkz: I’ll be honest, I was already starting to write my brief on St. Louis vs Vancouver when we were about halfway through round 1. However, Maine made me pay for that, and managed to beat their demons and win in seven games. And the crazy part is, I have no idea how to really take that series and if it portends anything for the Timber vs Berserkers series. Maybe we just have to consider that every Timber vs St. Louis game happens in some weird Twilight Zone. Fortunately for the Timber, they have a much better record against Newfoundland, as we’ll get to in a bit.

Dex: This last series shows that the Maine Timber were able to shake off their regular season issues with a better goals against average. Even though people may say it was against a “weaker” St. Louis team, I would say that the Scarecrows revamped their team following the trade deadline and they showed that they were better than when the season started. I think if the Timber are able to keep up this better defensive game, they could upset the Berserkers.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: ALEXANDER OSCARSSON
How about that for a first round? Oscarsson had 8 points in seven games and it wasn’t shooting through the moon, at just 8.33%. He had 29 points in the regular season. His corsi was an even 50% in the regular season which improved to 57% in the playoffs. Has Oscarsson found another gear?

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
Legend Leo Bloomfield bailed out his team down in that previous series. In the final three games of the series, Bloomfield gave up 1 goal, 1 goal, and 2 goals in the deciding game seven. Unsurprisingly, that means Leo has some of the best stats among playoff goaltenders so far. However, he did that against a team that only scored 119 times in the regular season. Now he’s going against a team that scored 153 times.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
The Maine Timber’s powerplay was good over this last series against the St. Louis Scarecrows averaging 0.29 goals per game. Even in the regular season the Timber had a slightly better powerplay compared to the Newfoundland Berserkers. Their penalty kill on the other hand was stellar keeping the Scarecrows to only 0.14 goals per game. As I said before, it seems like the team was able to get it together defensively and if they can keep this up, the team may have the special teams advantage.

NEWFOUNDLAND BERSERKERS

Shuff: The defending champs! A bit of a down season, some championship hangover perhaps for the Berserkers. Settling in as the three seed avoids the Vancouver/Carolina side of the bracket nicely, so Newfoundland might not mind trailing Carolina by just three points.While dex will get to the numbers and the special teams is not so good, they and Kelwona both scored 4 shorthanded goals this season (Detroit had 5 but with around an extra 40 minor penalties), so opposing powerplays may want to be careful.

Arkz: What a weird season for the Berserkers. Around mid-season, they were faltering like crazy and it looked like Maine was going to pass them for overall positioning in the west. Then they found another gear and managed to climb within three points of Carolina to finish with the fourth-most points in the league. We shouldn’t count the defending champions out. While they don’t have all the talent they had last season, this is still an experienced team that knows what it takes to go the distance.

Dex: The end of the season, although only winning half of their games in the last week, was enough to push them to almost first in the East. A big part of that came from their above average goals for per game, their goaltender Cale Amundsen putting up a save percentage around 0.913, and the rest of the East faltering a bit. Some may even say that they are the top dog of the East so they should be able to put up quite a fight.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: ELIAS KLERKLAND
An obscure defenseman? No. Klerkland had 21 points this season, and 2 shorthanded goals, He is shooting just 6% so that my very well self-correct in the postseason. His CF% of 51 is not very good compared to the team (-.7% CFrel%) but he is still a vital player, and one that is worth keeping an eye on.

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
Cale Amundsen, what a beast. The veteran goaltender appeared in 42 games for the Berserkers, notching the third-most minutes played in the league. He put together a stellar 25-14-3 record, with a 2.45 GAA and a .914 SV%. Here’s the kicker though, he had seven shutouts in the regular season. Seven! The next closest, Anchorage’s Scoochie Stratton, had five. The Berserkers no long have the scoring talent to blow teams off the ice, but they’ll feel comfortable in a low-scoring affair with Amundsen in goal.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
The Newfoundland Berserkers’ special teams are not all that special. Their powerplay in the regular season was below the Timber’s at 15.4%. However, their powerplay was able to click a lot better nearing the end of the season. Their penalty kill was also below average at 81.6% so the team is most likely relying on their 5-on-5 play this series.

PREDICTIONS

Shuff: A Four Star Cup rematch from last season, but this time it happens in the quarterfinals. These two teams played seven times over the season, with it going 5-2 Maine, goals 22-15 for Maine, one shootout and one overtime both going Maine’s way. So we can see Maine with a solid advantage in this regular season matchup. Combine that with Maine coming in hot, with a 3 game win streak with their backs against the walls against St. Louis, I’m picking the underdog here. Maine in 6.

Arkz: I mean this really comes down to how you feel about Maine and St. Louis and if there’s any takeaways there. To be honest, I really don’t think there might be. So, if we put that series aside, we have to look at the Timber vs Berserkers history, and as Shuff mentioned it's a bit ugly if you’re a Newfoundland fan. However, maybe Maine finally vanquished their boogeymen and are finally able to actually take on the challenge in front of them. In that case, we’ll go for Maine in 7.

Dex: I think that although the Timber may have the advantage based on their regular season matchup as Shuff has said, the Berserkers were still one of the hotter teams in the East entering the playoffs. The team has the advantage 5-on-5 in my opinion so if they can halt this momentum that the Maine Timber have then they should be able to take the series. Though I expect the Timber to still put up a fight. Newfoundland in 6.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 1
MET 0 - NL 2
Arkz: Apparently the Berserkers spent the first round bye watching tape from their performance last season, as they’ve come out swinging in the second round. Maybe Maine was exhausted emotionally and physically by their St. Louis series, but they will need to wake up if they want to avoid the brooms.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 2
MET 1 - NL 3
Shuff: And here we go again with the Timber. Down 3 games to 1. Where have we seen this before? Newfoundland will try not to be the third team in two season to blow a 3-1 series lead to Maine. So I had Maine in 6 which is out, but I also said that they won’t come back from down 3-1 which is funny. Arkz had Maine in 7, dex with Newfoundland in 6, both on the board.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 3
MET 1 - NL 4
Dex: Another short 5 game series where the higher ranked seed made it past the round. The Timber weren't able to overcome being down 1-3
this time. With that, it looks like my prediction of the Newfoundland Berserkers moving on proved to be correct. However, I don't think any of us predicted the series to be as short as it was.

PRESERIES GRAPH

SERIES GRAPHS (UPDATED DAILY)

THE NEWFOUNDLAND BERSERKERS WIN THE SERIES

GAME 1

1 - 3

Arkz: In the opening game, the Berserkers jumped out to an early 2-0 lead in the first round. Maine and Newfoundland would each score again, but by then it wasn’t enough. Not sure if Maine is having a hangover after their STL series, but not the way they wanted to start.

GAME 2

2 - 5

Arkz: Sometimes teams battle back and rally after a tough defeat. This was not one of those times. Once again the Berserkers came out with a fury in the first, scoring three unanswered goals this time. Maine would add a few to their credit, but two goals in the third for Newfoundland brought this game to a close, 5-2.

GAME 3

5 - 2

Shuff: Maine with 3 goals in the first to put this one away early, Kyle Sutton, Franz Zipfel and Victor Ball. Newfoundland made it 3-2, but Maine would win 5-2.

GAME 4

2 - 6

Shuff: A huge third period for Newfoundland, putting up five goals, including one by Elias Kierkegaard to make a tied game a blow out. Maine actually won the shots on goal battle with 39 to 31 from Newfoundland.

GAME 5

2 - 3 (OT) Berserkers

Dex: What a nailbiter of an ending for the Maine Timber. The team was down 0-2 in the third before scoring 2 goals to tie the game up and send it to overtime. However, there wasn't any magic left for the Timber as Souppan scored for the Berserkers 5 minutes into overtime, eliminating the Timber and sending the Berserkers to

ANCHORAGE ARMADA Armada

Shuff: A nice five game series against the Falcons, the Armada should be rested enough to take on Nevada. Five tight games, with Thor Odinson keeping the Falcons in games despite the Armada outplaying the Falcons by quite a bit. C.K. Supernaw is a good goalie, but he shouldn’t be on par with Odinson. Sadly for the Armada there is no reason for them to be able to control the game against the Battleborn like they did with ease against the Falcons.

Arkz: Well that previous series probably got a little frightening in spots for Anchorage. Detroit’s Thor Odinson played on his head, but the talent disparity was just too much for the Falcons. Anchorage came in and dominated game five and put Detroit away, but I’m sure the Armada have to be concerned about where their offense went in games 2, 3 and 4 (combined three goals). Still, if they are able to avoid a nuclear-hot goalie, Anchorage should be able to get back to their regular season form, in which they scored the second-most goals in the league at 170.

Dex: I think the Anchorage Armada are a lethal team. Both their 5-on-5 and special teams have been amazing, ranking second in the league for most, if not all, those categories. I think although their offense seemed to have disappeared in the Detroit series, it could be attributed to a hot goalie in Thor Odinson, and a low PDO for the team at 96.49 compared to Detroit’s 103.51. If the pucks begin to bounce their way once again, this could be another series win for them.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: POJO BISCUIT
The defenseman scored the series ending goal in OT game four on Odinson to win the game one-nothing, gave the Armada up a commanding 3-1 lead that they did not let up, unlike some other team. He put up 5 points (3 goals 2 assists). In the regular season Biscuit had 10 goals and 17 assists, he may have found something in the playoffs.

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
Tough to really rate Armada goaltender Scoochie Stratton on his performance against Detroit. Stat wise, he was fantastic. 1.59 GAA and .908% with a shutout. However, that was against Detroit, who scored the second-fewest goals in the regular season. Scoochie also wasn’t tested much, only facing a rough average of 17.5 shots a night. So the question will be, will Scoochie regress to his regular-season numbers of 2.73 GAA and .893 SV% against stronger competition in Nevada.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
We already know that the Anchorage Armada have been excellent on special teams and their penalty kill has been no exception in this past series. Their penalty kill stopped every single man advantage that the Detroit Falcons had and the Falcons had a great powerplay as well during the regular season at 20.3%. The Armada’s powerplay on the other hand looked a little weaker compared to the regular season; however, I could once again attribute that to running into a hot goaltender as well as a low PDO. With regards to special teams, the Armada have the advantage.

NEVADA BATTLEBORN

Shuff: Nevada. A little fluke called divisions kept them from playing Detroit in the first round, the Armada actually had a better record, but divisions. So Nevada got to rest as the Armada played the Falcons. Nevada’s puck possession is not their strong suit, the team corsi is a tad under 49.0. They actually average 4 less shots a game than they allow. The entire team has a PDO over 100 except Sven Gunnar. This is not really a recipe for consistent winning, so we will see if this catches up to them.

Arkz: Listen, if I’m the Nevada Battleborn I’m pissed. This is looking to be, potentially, the most competitive series in the second round, right there with Maine and Newfoundland. Nevada had a strong season, with a 28-18-4 record and finished two points behind the Armada in the West. 158 goals for an 142 goals against is a tighter goal differential than you would expect to see out a team with a first-round bye, it will be up to Nevada to show they are a contender against Anchorage.

Dex: The Nevada Battleborn came into the playoffs winning 6 of their last 12 games. Their defense in Bane and Grandmaster Funk had 8 points each in the last week, and their goalscoring was excellent above 3 goals per game. Their defense and goaltending has been just average though in comparison to their offense. If the team can figure out their defense, this could be a good series against the Anchorage Armada.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: RAIVO HELMINEN
He spent 142 minutes not on the ice due to penalty. He still had 35 points. If Helminen can cut down on the PIM a little bit in the playoffs and continues to score, the Battleborn can play with anyone. If his reaction to the tighter games of the playoffs is to take more penalties, then the Battleborn are not in good shape.

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
Along with Vancouver, the Battleborn feature two goalies that split time this season. Both C.K. Supernaw and Phillip Weaver played in 25 games this season. Supernaw was the better performer, with a 15-8-2 record and a SV% of .917. Still, Weaver was right there with a 13-10-2 record and a .911 SV%. We’ll see if Nevada decides to start Supernaw in net every game, or if they look to give him a rest and play Weaver.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
The powerplay hasn’t been the team’s strong suit for most of the regular season. Their powerplay sat at 12.8% which was the second worst in the league. This in addition to the Armada penalty kill that has been red hot means that I don’t think that they’ll have many opportunities with the man advantage. Their penalty kill though has been better, just behind Anchorage at 84.5%. Although, I still would avoid taking any penalties against the Armada who proved to be able to score with their man advantages.

PREDICTIONS

Shuff: Season series was tied at 2 a piece, including an OT win by each team on the road. That’s about as even as it could get. Goals were 13-10 for the Armada, but that is mostly a 6-1 win in Anchorage. Fairly evenly matched teams, just two points separating them over the entire regular season. I think Nevada has been a little bit too lucky over the season and that catches up to them here in a long series. Armada in 7.

Arkz: Thor Odinson really throws a wrench in this prediction. The man played out of his mind, and the question is if his performance was more on him or Anchorage slumping something fierce. I’m inclined to put most of that performance towards the son of Odin having a series of a lifetime and give the Armada a pass. If that’s the case, a tested Armada team should be able to take care of business here, Armada in 6.

Dex: I think this is again one of those series where we all agree with one another. We agreed that the Armada were going to beat the Falcons, and here we are again saying that the Armada will defeat the Battleborn who have the home-ice advantage in the series. The Anchorage Armada have the advantage in most categories from 5-on-5 to the special teams. Armada in 6.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 1
ANC 1 - NBB 1
Arkz: As expected, this has been the most competitive and entertaining series so far. Both teams have decided that offense is going to be their focus, with sixteen goals combined being scored in the first two games. This one has the makings of going the distance if both sides can keep this up.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 2
ANC 3 - NBB 1
Shuff: How about a big two wins at home for the Armada to take a commanding lead to Nevada for game five? We all had Armada winning this in six or seven, they have a shot to take it in five tomorrow.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 3
ANC 4 - NBB 1
Dex: Other than the Kelowna-Vancouver series, this Anchorage-Nevada series was the only other series that the majority of us predicted correctly. We all predicted the Armada to win and they were able to do so in 5 games, a couple games less than what we predicted heading into this series.

PRESERIES GRAPH

SERIES GRAPHS (UPDATED DAILY)

THE ANCHORAGE ARMADA WIN THE SERIES

GAME 1

4 - 3

Arkz: If you had to get tickets to just one series in the second round, your pick would have to be this Nevada and Anchorage tilt. In the first game, Anchorage scored three goals to Nevada’s one, and while Nevada would play hard in the second and third periods, they couldn’t complete the comeback and the game ended 4-3.

GAME 2

4 - 5 (OT) Battleborn

Arkz: Taking it as a challenge to see if they could out-do their game one performance, Nevada game out roaring and ended the first period up 3-1 over Anchorage. Then things got crazy. Anchorage tied it at 3 off a goal by Vladamir Petrov in the third. Then Raivo Helminen put the Battleborn back on top with about ten minutes to go in regulation. However, with roughly six minutes left, Slava Petrov tied the game and sent it to overtime. Five minutes in, Nevada’s Chad Danger scored and tied the series at 1-1. What an absolute gem of a game by both teams.

GAME 3

4 - 2

Shuff: Anchorage is just out matching Nevada right now. Shots in this game was 36-20 for the Armada.

GAME 4

7 - 1

Shuff: With a chance to keep what should be the most competitive series in this round close, Nevada got the doors blown in on them, a 7-1 loss. Grandmaster Funk with his second goal of the series to open the scoring, but Nevada scored the next seven goals. Wow.

GAME 5

2 - 1

Dex: Another bit of a nailbiter of an ending as the Nevada goaltender Philip Weaver held the Armada to only 2 goals on 41 shots to give his team the best chance on keeping the series alive. However, their late goal by Strongo would be their only one as they weren't able to tie the game. The Anchorage Armada move on to the next round.

Quote:7140 words ready for grading, split 30/30/20/20 between @Arkz, @mee, @juke, and I

LordBirdman · 11-01-2020, 08:04 PM

Arkz · 11-01-2020, 09:18 PM

Look at these hack frauds picking their own team.

mee · 11-01-2020, 09:29 PM

BOOOOOOOOO DEX BOOOOOOOOOOOOO

***trashae*** · 11-02-2020, 12:14 AM

I BELIEVE THAT WE WILL WIN! GO KNIGHTS GO! READY TO TAKE OUR SPEARS AND GO WHALING! Knights

FlappyGiraffe · 11-02-2020, 12:32 AM

Go Kraken!

Quality media piece gentlemen

***Ohtaay*** · 11-02-2020, 11:36 AM

Nice work gents! great read to start the week!

Dextaria · 11-03-2020, 01:27 PM

Odds and recaps updated for day 1!

Dextaria · 11-04-2020, 02:22 PM

Quick series and we're on to the semifinals!

Arkz · 11-04-2020, 04:47 PM

We want Bama

Ronniewalker · 11-05-2020, 03:43 AM

Great stuff guys! Go Boat Gang! Armada

Sigs by sulovilen , Ragnar , supertardis101 , Leviadan , High Stick King , Carpy & KaleSalad

S69 Challenge Cup Champion - Philadelphia Forge Forge

S59 & S62 Challenge Cup Champion - Texas Renegades

S57 Four Star Cup Champion - Anchorage Armada Armada

S57 & S58 WJC / S62, S64 & S66 IIHF Gold Medalist - Team Finland Finland

After 69 shots on net with still no SHL goals to show for it, even the opposition started to feel so sorry for Lemo, that they decided to help him out :D

- Bad pass by Jack Klompus, he gave it right to Lemo Pihl.

- Lemo Pihl rips it to the net...

- Lemo Pihl will find the empty net, that should do it!

TEX @ MAN, S59 game 31

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