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How'd We Do? (2x Draft Media)
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(This post was last modified: 11-25-2020, 06:15 PM by JayWhy.)

** GRADER: Due to character limits had to separate into 2 posts, East is in the first post, West is in the 2nd post on this same thread. Thank you! **
Quote:Word Count: 15,500

As a note before you read this, yes I am aware that moves have been made since I started on this. Yes I know Jax Duggan isn't on Hamilton, Petr Mikulak isn't on Baltimore, etc. If I stopped to change things every single time that a move happened, I would never have met the deadline for double media. This was a big one so I did the very best I could with it to be fair. I appreciate any who read it, and understand any who don't because god is it long. I know most will scroll to their team's section and read only it, I don't mind. Enjoy as you will.

How'd We Do?
A Team By Team Breakdown of Needs Heading Into the S57 Draft and How They Were Addressed

Entry Drafts are often exciting, but in a way that is different from any other event with regards to your favorite franchise. While you can go to free agency or a trade deadline excited about what’s to come, those are immediate returns. It fulfills that desire we all have nowadays to get instant gratification on whatever is happening. The Draft is a completely different story.

Going into the Entry Draft, teams aren’t going to be looking for who to step into the line-up immediately. Reasonably speaking it will be at least a year before these players see SHL ice. For most, it may even be two or three. Development cycles are long, tedious and it takes time to eventually come out at the end with the needed end result.

While that’s from the fan perspective, from a team perspective it’s even more taxing in some ways. Variables change regularly in the SHL landscape. Here today, gone tomorrow is a real thing. You could see players retire, leave in free agency, or be traded in an instant. Things are always moving forward, the question being how far forward they move. Teams have to go into the draft analyzing not just the immediate needs and how to address those, but focusing on the full picture view of their needs in three seasons, or five. They have to look down the road, see the traffic light and determine if they need to hit the gas, hit the brakes or if they’re going to make it remaining steady.

That is the point of this exercise. I’m going to look at every team in the league and review what players they may need to replace in the next one to three seasons, and how they addressed that with regards to the draft. In the future I may expand this out, and explore how they utilize trades and free agency as well to further they end goal, especially considering the cap implications that all of these factor into as the landscape continues to change in the SHL with the new minimums in play. However, this is going to be a more basic look into how teams are developing and growing.



[Image: Atlanta-Banner.png]
ATLANTA INFERNO
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S39) D - Brady McIntyre, (S39) D – DeMaricus Smyth, (S40) RW – Manuel Gotze, (S43) D – Maximillian Egger, (S44) LW – Rainbow Dash, (S44) LW – Nathan Explosion, (S52) C – CT Carragher
Prospects: (S55) C – Stan Q. Next, (S56) D – Max Goodman, (S56) D – Michael Withecheck, (S56) C – Josh Dolphin, (S56) RW – Kenji Sugimoto

After one season, the Inferno were looking great. Expansion teams often can go one of two ways, either competing immediately or rebuilding immediately. To the luck of Atlanta, they were put in a position that it was easier for them to compete and they managed to make the playoffs immediately out of the expansion similar to the New Orleans Specters.

The issue in this sometimes is that you end up with older players that you’ll need to replace sooner than later, and no team starts with a wealth of picks realistically. Looking at it, they have three defensemen who are older and regressing, two of whom are nearing 20 seasons at this point. They have two defensive prospects in Goodman and Withecheck, but Goodman doesn’t look very promising at this point and likely will be released as soon as possible. Defense should be a priority target for them.

Another big issue I noticed is that they only have one natural center on their roster in CT Carragher, and while he’s young, he hasn’t been training hard. He’s only at 590 TPE, and hasn’t updated since the start of September. That in mind, they need center depth badly in their system. Josh Dolphin looks like he could be an okay prospect, likely a middle-six center. Stan Q. Next is similar, on pace to be called up in S58 after exhausting his send-down status, but Next isn’t going to be lighting the world on fire exactly. They may surpass Carragher when called up, but they’re still not top tier options. Getting a high-end center is huge in todays game, and is going to be a major piece to the puzzle for Atlanta to get one. They do have a few other forwards that look to be on the outs, but Kenji Sugimoto is good enough to expect him to be able to fill a depth role and possibly grow beyond that a few years down the line. The bigger focus is going to be on the center and defense aspects.

So let’s take a look at how they did in the draft:

Atlanta Selected: C – Pablo Salvatici (11), D – Michael Scotch (22), D – Bjorn Thornsen (29), LW – Tres Sombreros (47)


The team absolutely nailed the draft. Picking first at 11, they ended up with arguably the best center in the draft in Pablo Salvatici. This is a player you can build your franchise around up front who gives them a legitimate superstar in the middle of the ice. While Next and Dolphin will be good players, Salvatici is a next level guy that team needs to drive play and is going to be a big piece to the Inferno puzzle in the next few years.

They also addressed their defense issue pretty well. Knowing that Withecheck is a good player who is maybe a season or two from stepping in and being an impact player, they went into the second round and targeted defense. They traded one of their other aging defensemen in Geoff Moore and a future second to get Michael Scotch at 22 and then a few picks later picked up Bjorn Thornsen to go with him. The now trio of top tier defensive prospects in their farm system is going to be very important to replace the three outgoing. It’s a lot easier to find wings than it is high end centers and defensemen, and Atlanta shot for the moon with these ones and came out with some of the best in the draft.

Meanwhile, speaking of wings being easier to find, they stuck around into the third round as other teams passed and picked up a second-year eligible player in Tres Sombreros. While Sombreros isn’t an extraordinary prospect, he’s somebody who looks like he could develop into a depth role on a solid team and can play a good part for them. As long as he stays committed, he could easily be like Nathan Explosion, a key cog that helps get you to the dance.

All in all, Atlanta got exactly what they needed for the future. They still have some holes to shore up now, especially giving up a roster player in a draft day trade. However, they look good for the future with now a star center and some high end defensive prospects in the mix.



[Image: platoonbanner.png]
BALTIMORE PLATOON
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S44) RW – Brock Nuck, (S46) RW – Petr Mikulak, (S49) D – Cal Clucker, (S50) D – Daniel Kuster, (S51) C – Henrik Lundqvist Jr.
Prospects: (S55) RW – Young Logo, (S55) D – Teddy Park, (S55) C – Hubert Andrews, (S56) D – Jimmy Dekens, (S56) LW – Lucas Johansson, (S56) D – Vili Afalava, (S56) D – Zebulon Leavitt, (S56) D – Tanjiro Kamado

Baltimore is a fascinating case study. On paper, they have very few outright stars currently. Nat Emerson is aging quickly, and is the rock on their otherwise porous defense. Karl Krashwagen and Ethan Duncan are the only real offensive threats at any given time. However the key to this is to look more so at the age of their team. They have eight players who are from S53 or younger, still within just a five season window of the starts of their careers. They’re in a difficult space right now where their defense is weak in part because of slower growing players, and in part because they’re too young to have an impact. It is what leads to an interesting study of their prospects, however.

While on their current roster they sport, while they have easily replaceable defensemen, they also have players like Valentin Kalashnikov, Sabo Tage, and Adam Friedland. The oldest of these three is from S52, all of them are still very young players who have yet to come close to their peak performance. However in their farm system they have five defensemen. I’m not a rocket scientist, but with six spots and five in the system, you’re either betting hard that someone is going to fail or struggling to count. The good in that is the bet was correct as Jimmy Dekens at the least looks unlikely to make it to the show, but Teddy Park was a sixth overall pick in S55, and in S56 Vili Afalava, Zebulon Leavitt and Tanjiro Kamado were all picked between 16 and 24, fairly high picks. All of these are players who look like the real deal, meaning that in S59 it’s likely Baltimore could have Sabo Tage, Kalashnikov, Friedland, Park, Afalava, Leavitt and Kamado all vying for six spots on a line-up and none of whom have hit their peak yet, the closest being Sabo Tage with two seasons until his hits it. They may be betting on one to fail, but with all of them looking good, it’s possible they may need to look for suitors to swing something in the next couple of season.

And swinging is what they need to do, by the way. They’re a team that doesn’t seem to have the same direction offensively as they do defensively. While you can win games by a one goal margin by playing tight defense and getting great goaltending, you need someone to put the puck in the net for that one goal. Outside of the two listed earlier, they lack any players over 1000 tpe up front. They have players on pace for it, younger guys who will develop to that point, but they lack the true talent right now to make any impact. Ultimately, Baltimpre shows a team that is, and should be, planning for the S60s and nothing in this draft is going to change that. At best, it helps them a little more toward that goal as they get an opportunity at getting a true top tier talent at forward to take them to the dance. They’re in a similar boat to Atlanta, but instead of the center depth – Baltimore has Duncan, Lord Raiden and Daniil Nikiforov down the middle for a pretty strong punch actually, even if they won’t be that strong of a punch until S60 at the earliest – they need players on the wings for they center depth to activate with and really put together something special up front. It’s taken them a while to get there – they haven’t made the playoffs since S49 and likely won’t see it at any point in the S50s – but the team is finally set up for their decade of dominance. Now it’s more so a waiting game and getting the necessary wing depth.

Baltimore Selected: C – Rob Wright (24), C – Victor Fedorov (38)

Baltimore is an enigma.

Let’s review, they have three great, young centers who will not start hitting their peak for at least another three or four seasons at the least. They have a ton of defensive depth in their system. They have a good young goaltender who is set up to become one of the best in the league as that defense around him grows and develops. The only thing they don’t have in droves is wing depth. They go into the draft and grab – centers. I’m half thinking they’re hoarders who latch on to something, they hoarded all the defense they could hold and now they’re hoarding centers.

What likely is the case is they believe in the system of centers can move to any wing without trouble. While that’s the case in our simulation league, let’s pretend for a moment – as if we aren’t already pretending to be hockey players, let’s go. Centers typically are players more inclined to the center of the ice, needing the puck on their stick and making plays. They may also often be more defensively suited. This may be the play for Baltimore, make a team of more defensive minded players and counter-attack rather than push the pace. However, there’s always danger in having too many players who have a need for the puck on their stick to operate. At some point, you need people more inclined to work to open space than working to create it.

If we go outside of the world of pretend that we all foster here, there’s other concerns in this in terms of the users. Teams are a culture as well. They have an image that they have to foster, develop. When you aren’t making the playoffs for likely a decade, you have to be developing something to make your name with. This team recently was more so in the news for some negativity on the site, and then they drafted others who have a certain reputation as well. They have a strategy, and this may be part of the culture they’re developing, but it does make you wonder what the back-up plan is if they need to head into free agency or anything like that.

Nonetheless, not my place to judge character of anybody else considering I have my own reputation also. The decisions made were the right ones in the sense that they continued to deepen their forward depth in the prospect pool, even if I may disagree to some degree.



[Image: Buffalo.png]
BUFFALO STAMPEDE
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S43) C - Hippo Passamus, (S44) D - Poopity Scoop, (S50) C – Rintarou Okabe
Prospects: (S55) D – Kolja Kekkonen, (S55) D – Johnny Shuffleboard, (S56) RW – Eero Makinen Jr., (S56) G – Chimkin Tendy, (S56) RW – Walter Burke

I’ll be honest, I struggled here. Realistically there is no reason that Passamus or Scoop would be gone in the next three seasons. Is it possible? Of course, anything is. But realistically, they’re just the oldest players on the team and thus the most likely to be replaced. Okabe is put there because he’s a slower earner than the others around him, being at 1000 tpe as a S50. That is surprisingly good value, honestly, considering the cap implications of a super team in the modern SHL. That’s somebody who can hold down a spot and play at a discount. They may have preferred him at 999 tpe for that extra million in the bank, but he’s still a good player. Ultimately, I don’t foresee a world that they replace him until somebody comes along that can sign for longer term at a discounted rate than that $4 million he currently would be due.

The other key to that being, they don’t have a ready replacement currently. In their system they have two wings, two defensemen and a goaltender. Realistically, one of those defensemen looks primed for the SHL sooner than later in Johnny Shuffleboard, while Kekkonen more so treads water until an opening comes available. Between the forwards, Walter Burke could make his way to the team, but may be more of a trade chip kind of player. Chimkin Tendy in net is likely to work his way into some work on the big squad, and with the league expanding to 66 game seasons, it will be important to have a good back-up to hold things down. Ultimately, the team is just really well set up.

That’s the difficulty of this. This is why people – this is where we cough out an ml – say to stop giving Buffalo first round picks. Two of the players on my list of possibly replaceable as of the time of research for this article were nearly 1800 TPE still. They aren’t going anywhere soon, realistically, and yet they have prospects in the system that while maybe not incredible are still good. This is a team with no distinct needs, who just continue to get the best players available and continue to cycle like there’s no problems. They have it possibly the easiest. The only target I could name for them in the draft would be a center to replace Okabe as the players drafted in the S57 draft would be due to come up in S60 which would be Okabe’s first season in regression and a perfect time to phase him out of the third line role and give it to a young up and comer. This is just a fantastically built team that’s a bit terrifying from an outsider view.

Buffalo Selected: C – Anton Mihailov (17), LW – Mikhail Borisnoff (46)

Would you look at that, they went for a center. This is somebody who in the short term is able to replace Okabe once S60 comes around. In the long term, has the potential to usurp Passamus. That’s the kind of pick you want to make, somebody who will take the spot of someone on the outs, move into the spot of someone firmly planted and push them out for the next crop. This is a great pick for them, and something I can’t speak a lot on. Mihailov is going to be a good player. Borisnoff is a shot in the dark, at that point in the draft other teams were passing, but you never know what you may find. They’ve struck gold before with those with a current prospect actually. In S55, Johnny Shuffleboard wasn’t really a touted pick. He fell into the third round, was taken 38th overall. He is now the top prospect in their system and looks primed to take over a spot or be an extremely valuable trade piece in the future. Either way, he’s a legitimate diamond they found later in the draft. Borisnoff may not look impressive right now, but all he has to do is put in the work and one day he could be a sleeper that people talk about and ask how did that guy fall.

If any team is good for that, it’s Buffalo. They have the ability to take pressure off a prospect. While there are teams that need people to update and improve quickly, Buffalo has the benefit of time. They can let a prospect develop on their own pace and let them find their way into the right lane for them. Does it hit 100% of the time? No. Buffalo doesn’t need it to. They continually rack up picks while being a top dog in the league still, and they’ll be able to continue doing so for a long time still. If they hit on 25% of the picks it’s a victory for them, and it makes it worth it to just try. It’s an interesting strategy, and it’s paid off some dividends already.



[Image: Chicago-Banner.png]
CHICAGO SYNDICATE
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S46) LW – Kit Smeb, (S46) G – Tibuk Soonika, (S46) D – Jules Watt, (S47) D – Akashi Sixnine
Prospects: (S55) C – Lassi Suhonen, (S56) D – Bud Weiser, (S56) G – Mat Smith, (S56) G – Damien Vertigo

While we’re working through the gauntlet that is the Great Lakes Division, Chicago is a fascinating place to stop and look. They have a team that isn’t really old, but is at their peak. With that in mind, they have some pieces needing replaced. They only need to replace the depth parts, but the depth is something that helps drive championships and is something they don’t seem all that prepared for replacing.

If you look into their prospects and compare to who will be needing replaced, they did just graduate a S54 forward, they have another forward in the wings in Suhonen, one defenseman and two goalies. However they need to replace realistically one goaltender guaranteed – it never hurts to have two – and two defensemen. This is going to be a draft that I fully expect them to target defense in considering what they look like going forward. You can’t always guarantee you’ll strike gold in free agency, and they have the high-end pieces to compete both now and in the near future. This draft is going to be important to determining how long that window goes for them. We hear the adage of defense wins championships. While Chicago is more of a run and gun type of team, they work off of great defense and all it will take in a division as strong as theirs is one weakness for them to suddenly be on the outs of the playoffs. Only three out of the four teams in the division make it, and with what we just said about Buffalo and are about to with Hamilton, it’s possible they could be in for a rocky ride if Toronto inserts themselves into the mix as well.

In this situation, Chicago should ensure that defense is shored up, and especially so when looking at the fact Bud Weiser isn’t exactly a star prospect. Suhonen isn’t really a top tier forward prospect either. They have the great goaltending depth, but beyond that, they’re more filled with the types of players you would expect them to be considering they consistently would finish high in the standings and make deep playoff runs. They have the middling prospects, the good but not great, they people who don’t really drive the bus but will ride in it. They aren’t going to hurt you to have, but in a division this close with a lot of great and not as many “just fine” players, you need to be sure to get some head turners in place when you can.

Chicago Selected: C – Kian Hamilton Jr. (34)

That is a choice. This is a team that definitely leans more recreate heavy, which is understandable having a management group and userbase that is older and more experienced in the league. However, going for a center in this is a bit of a change that I didn’t see coming. With no clear top tier defensive prospects, and realistically having the forward prospects needed to replenish what you need for the time being, I thought it was a shoo-in. I guess I thought wrong.

This is one of those moments where as an outsider I do have to make a statement. I don’t know the big picture plan here. I’m taking a single moment in time, a small and potentially insignificant moment, and extrapolating it out. If I took these same snapshots like I am now throughout my Manhattan tenure, there would be plenty of times where you’d be left to scratch your head I’m sure. In no way am I saying they made the wrong choice, or am I saying that of anybody. I’m just saying that I don’t know that I would have made that choice in their position given the information I have available currently.

While I don’t think I would have gone back to the well of forwards and recreates, they worked with what they had available to them at 34 all things considered and got what is likely to be a good player out of a difficult pick.



[Image: Hamilton.png]
HAMILTON STEELHAWKS
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S44) D – Ray Bork, (S47) D – Jax Duggan, (S47) LW – Dale Miller, (S49) C – Skao Anazibf
Prospects: (S55) RW – Devin Basher, (S56) D – Evangelos Giannopoulos

This is a very good team. Let’s look at the players I marked as in danger of being replaced, there are two defensemen after Igor Volkov’s retirement. There are two forwards after Robert Phelps retirement. Of those forwards and defensemen, Duggan and Miller are in their peak seasons. This is part of why they’re likely to be replaced. They’re starting on their downswing and neither really reached great heights. Some would say Dale Miller especially came up short of expectations.

In terms of Bork, he’s an older player that’s about to start hitting a harder regression scale. He’s going to be fine for a few seasons, but they’ll need to find a replacement soon to be able to take over as we turn over to the S60s. Then looking at Skao, he’s a very good player, just going to be reaching regression in the next few seasons and from there we’ll see where things go. He’s the least likely among this list to be replaced at any point, but if the right situation comes along and depending on how the cap hits, he’s one that could be on the outs.

Hamilton is a weirdly positioned team, and I say that in a good way. They have two defensemen, two forwards and a goalie all S52 or younger. They have peaking S46, S47 and S48 players currently to carry them deep, and a plethora of younger players to maintain that window. As these mid-S40s start to regress and lose their foothold, the S50s they’ve gathered will take over and continue the window for a long period. This team is well established to be a powerhouse for a very long time thanks to the way their window was built out. Devin Basher is a great addition for them to take over for Miller as soon as next season, Giannopoulos likely takes over Duggan’s spot. What they need now is just to look in the draft for a defenseman to take over for Bork as he ages out and from there they are perfectly set up as Anazibf will be fine moving forward provided the cap doesn’t squeeze him out.

Heading to the draft, I expect to see them target a defenseman early and maybe get a security forward in the later rounds in order to help ease things in case they do have somebody get squeezed.

Hamilton Selected: D – Wen Baters (28), RW – Tokkulu Lakkamaa (39)

Roughly in line with my expectations, they actually ended up with a fantastic defensive selection at 28. While normally that’s a difficult place to be picking, somehow Baters fell to them and it gives them a legitimately good player who is able to take over for Bork in S60 without issue. He should be a very successful long-term piece for Hamilton. Meanwhile they also went about and picked up a forward prospect late who has the ability to push somebody out if things get tight. It’s exactly the strategy I saw there, and works pretty perfectly for them. Cap is going to become a problem in the SHL, and knowing how to deal with the cap is going to be very important. Part of that is having the prospects to take over spots in the line-up as people get pushed out. Hamilton has set themselves up well for that.

The real story in this is just how far Baters dropped. Looking at talent level and tpe levels, you would expect him to be around first rounders like Matty Sandeen or Robert Feltersnatch or early second round picks like Farley Hank or Michael Scotch. Kai Ichinose was taken in front of him even, which we’ll get to later on. It would usually lend itself to say that there was a problem in the interview process. However, this seems like a situation more so of teams not doing their proper homework. Oftentimes teams put scouting on the backburner and because of it struggle to see the opportunities in front of them. This can lead to some questionable decision-making. Realistically, Baters is likely a late-first to early-second round talent and he fell out, and now a team who did do their homework and paid attention is going to benefit from it. This mistake may just haunt teams in the long run.



[Image: Rage-Banner.png]
MANHATTAN RAGE
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S41) D – Reginald MacIntyre, (S41) RW – Piotr Czerkawski, (S42) LW – David Kastrba, (S43) C – Jax Aittokallio, (S46) D – David Vent
Prospects: (S55) D – Jed Mosley Jr.

Yeesh. Let’s take a look at this step by step. This is a team with some old players on it. Realistically, they’re some of the higher end guys from their respective draft classes as I don’t expect Aittokallio to be gone in three seasons and Czerkawski and Kastrba could easily make it through those three but likely not much beyond them. David Vent is going to be an interesting scenario as he’s occasionally hit or miss with his training, and while he could go the distance and play into the S60s, it’s looking less and less likely that he will.

This all leads to an interesting predicament for Manhattan. As you can see, they haven’t exactly been going all in on drafting at any point. While Hamilton has a current and future window with two active cores and Buffalo has a higher high-end than them with a frequently replenishing cast, Manhattan is stuck in kind of a similar position as Chicago. They’ve been blessed with the ability to finish high in the standings, but they’ve been cursed with poor pick placement or making moves to try and get over the hump. This all leads to a situation where they have one defenseman as a prospect and they’re in line to replace Reginald MacIntyre likely next season, but they’re unprepared if some unforeseen circumstances arise with Czerkawski, Kastrba or Vent. This team prepared for winning, and didn’t really look too far back into the future.

That isn’t to say they haven’t had their success thanks to it. This is a team that was a laughing stock for the majority of nearly 50 seasons until this recent run, but it comes at a cost. As they hemorrhaged picks to make improvements, they failed to draw in the pieces needed to replenish their team. The likeliest scenario here is for them to go for forward help as Vent is able to survive, and likely could last longer than Kastrba and possibly Czerkawski. What this team really needs though is an influx of youth, they need more prospects and they need them quickly. Without a second round pick, I don’t think that’s going to happen. They just need to get the best player they can and focus on what to do from there.

Manhattan Selected: D – Matty Sandeen (13)


I have the benefit of knowing the behind the scenes here. The team was originally focused on getting a forward, but was drawn through interviews to Sandeen in the end. They had a plan to move up into the second round with a future second round pick, but unfortunately were rebuffed until the point that their man was taken. It ends up in a limbo situation where they just didn’t have enough to get what they were looking for in the later stages of the draft, but they thought they were getting a great player where they had the pick. It makes sense to go to Sandeen, you don’t know with Vent, as was stated above, where things will go from here. He could decide it’s his time, he could last a while longer. Either way, you don’t overlook top tier talent and Sandeen was high on the board all over. He’s somebody expected to become elite in the league, or at the very least in the “great” territory that can be hard to come by. While there are holes to fill, Manhattan at least has somebody to pair up with Jukka Timonen in the future to help cover those holes as much as possible.

I won’t say it was a perfect draft, because it obviously wasn’t. Manhattan should have gone for a forward realistically, and there were many on the board that were a similar skill level to Sandeen at the least. It’s an odd choice to go for the replacement of a younger player than to start developing people to replace the forwards who you desperately need to find replacements for. This is a bold choice and one that ultimately could reflect poorly in the future if things don’t spin the right way later on. This was the last choice of the Co-GM Arnost Holub in Manhattan, and some have to wonder where his eyes were really focused if it was the betterment of the team or if he was more looking ahead at his league position he was offered. We may never know for sure, but this could be a big factor in the legacy he leaves as a General Manager in Manhattan.



[Image: newwolfpack.png]
NEW ENGLAND WOLFPACK
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S45) D – Dominic Montgomery, (S46) D – Perry Morgan, (S50) RW – Sasha Dangelchek, (S51) RW – Stan Hanson
Prospects: (S55) LW – Ryan Rieley, (S55) RW – Alexander Oscarsson, (S55) RW – Gudmunder Kristjansson, (S55) D – Leonids Balzams, (S56) D – Mikhael Petrov, (S56) D - Teylora Petrov, (S56) RW – Alexis Vermette, (S56) D – Grandmaster Funk, (S56) C – Calvin Hobbes, (S56) RW – Adrian Ayers

Holy mackarel!

I’m going to get into that deep prospect list here in a moment. I first want to address the players likely to be replaced. Montgomery is in a pretty good position and could likely last through the next three seasons, but for this exercise I’m going to lean toward the side of caution. Stan Hanson hasn’t updated in a month at this point, and if that’s the situation, he likely is going to be out-earned quickly by one of the kids in the farm. The real one I want to address is Sasha Dangelchek. There is unfortunate news surrounding him, and it at times feels odd to place him on lists like these. However, from a purely managerial standpoint, a player that Isn't earning needs to be replaced at some point with someone who is.

The thing for New England that is good is they really stocked up on picks and as such have really stocked up on prospects. Take a look at that list, and all of them are from the last two seasons alone. We can likely write off Rieley, Funk and Mikhael Petrov. Adrian Ayers is more of a toss up I believe. After that you have some legitimately top tier prospects. Oscarsson and Kristjansson are likely to be first line players at some point. Balzams and Teylora Petrov are very much on track to be top four defensemen. Alexis Vermette and Calvin Hobbes are definite top six players. They don’t have as much need as some other teams for immediate replacements, and so these prospects are likely to develop in the SMJHL more so than being early call-ups. However, they’re players that I could see taking over in the SHL sooner rather than later.

This is what makes New England very scary moving forward. When things were falling apart for them a bit, they turned the lemons into diamonds and cashed in. Now they have a plethora of picks in the S57 draft that we will discuss shortly and from an outsider view, nowhere for them to even go. I don’t know what the plan is, but right now it seems they’ve stockpiled so well they could reasonably get to a point that they have to sell off great players because they just don’t have the room either on the cap or on the roster. This is how a Buffalo gets started, and It's possible New England in the early S60s starts to enter a reign of dominance and rides it into the S70s and beyond.

New England Selected: C – Jonathan Granstrom (1), RW – Brennan Huff (9), LW – Bas O’Bigbers (16), C – Kaapo Kampainen (27), G – Bigga Foryu (35)

This is what you call a haul. Three first round picks and two second round picks is often a big deal, and what they did here is stellar. The top pick overall is easily going to be a big-time impact player, couple him in with Huff and O’Bigbers in the future to create what is likely the starting line-up in the S66 Challenge Cup Finals when they hit their absolute peaks. Add in that they grabbed Kaapo Kampainen, a late bloomer who is already over 300 tpe, and a goaltender in Bigga Foryu who is legitimately a high-end prospect who could turn out to be a surprise in the draft.

This is something that sets them up in such an incredible way for the future. While this likely means that New England isn’t a big threat until the S60s, they are going to be a team that in S62 starts making a lot of noise and in S64 and beyond is going to be ridiculous to play against. Other teams should be terrified of how the S60s will go because this is a team that looks a lot like the New England of the early S30s led by Jasper Clayton, one of dynasties of the SHL.



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TAMPA BAY BARRACUDA
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S46) D – Kalevi Karhunen, (S50) RW – Kalevolaripaavo Kaspertommevisnapuu, (S50) G – Ian Venables, (S50) D – Jack Wilson, (S50) D – Flash GOrdon, (S52) RW – Mega Tron
Prospects: (S55) RW – Taylor Gervais, (S55) D – Colin Lambert, (S55) RW – Pavel Kharlamov, (S55) D – Adrik Baranov, (S55) D – Joorgustraad DuBolk, (S55) LW – Jesse Seppanen, (S55) D – Igor Victory, (S55) LW – Turg Turg, (S56) RW – KnockedOut ByOvechkin, (S56) C – Aleksander Kozlov, (S56) RW – Vladimir Petrov, (S56) D – Boris Petrov, (S56) LW – Valterri Kauppinen, (S56) G – Phillip Weaver, (S56) G – C.K. Supernaw

I nearly had a heart attack at the number of prospects in the New England system, Tampa Bay has five more! Granted, New England has been consistently a playoff threat still and is in a position where they may not need the plethora of prospects they have. For Tampa, all of these people have their place. I listed off the most likely to be out of the line-up in three seasons. I wouldn’t be surprised if the current day Tampa Bay Barracuda look absolutely unrecognizable by S60. While not every prospect is a bomb, they have plenty who are ready to light the world on fire.

This is the special thing about this team. They were a laughingstock not too long ago in this league, realistically in a position where they probably couldn’t beat the top SMJHL team even. Now they’re in an enviable position honestly, stacked with prospects and with space to play them. Tampa won’t be a contender still for a while, and I don’t expect to see them making the playoffs again in the S50s or even the early S60s, but this is a team set up to peak around the same time as New England. In this group alone they have a top four defense that is formidable in Lambert, Baranov, DuBolk and Victory. Their forward prospect pool is deep in terms of number, but shallow in terms of skill though with Taylor Gervais, Pavel Kharlamov and Jesse Seppanen not looking quite on pace. They may need some work on the forward side of things.

Ultimately, that would be my goal if I’m Tampa Bay here. I would look to get additional forwards, and specifically on the wing. They have the center depth they need with Kozlov joining Michael Fitted and Matt Forrester. Now it’s just looking at the wings and seeing that with Turg Turg, Kauppinen, Petrov and ByOvechkin they have a solid group that can have some reach for spectacular even, but they may not be the level that matches New England when the two teams reach their peaks. I’d look for a high end forward and maybe some good depth defense, though the defense could come in a later draft.

Tampa is a team in a luxurious position where they don’t need to draft right now, they can take a draft or two off and come back to get players to fill out another peak. I think this draft isn’t going to be make or break for them like it is for a team like Baltimore or Manhattan, and they can take advantage of that kind of desperation.

Tampa Bay Selected: Nobody.

With that, Tampa actually didn’t do anything. This was the perfect draft for that. It wasn’t the deepest and strongest draft, they could afford to sit it out and just bide their time. Like I said, they won’t be a threat until the early S60s at the earliest, this is the long game. Nothing in the SHL is a sprint, actually, and this is no different. This was a wise move and something I think will pay off later for them realistically, even if they could have probably gotten something out of this draft to help them.



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TORONTO NORTH STARS
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S49) LW – Anthony Archer, (S50) LW – Ricky Bobby
Prospects: (S55) RW – Liam Slate, (S55) LW – Ryu Jones, (S55) RW – Juni Panda, (S55) LW – Vincent Wolfe

When I was researching this article, I legitimately gasped when I realized what Toronto had done. With their acquisition of Adam Barron giving them a high-end defenseman now and giving up this draft, they actually set themselves up perfectly. I reached out to the General Manager to tell him how amazed I was by what he’d done there. The team looks stellar. By the end of S57 they should have maybe two players under 1000 tpe and have two of the best prospects in the league Liam Slate and Ryu Jones joining the squad. This team is prepared to take over Chicago’s spot, and could find themselves ready to start challenging Hamilton and Buffalo in the early S60s. They’re still in a grey area, but they’re clearly positioned in a way that just makes them frightening to go up against.

This is the work of a great general manager. It may jokingly pain me to say that at times, but this is really incredible work. They have nobody to worry about regressing right now, and even when they do with Kandinsky and Carpet, they’re top tier players that you can expect to remain on top for a long time still. They may be in a spot to move one or both of them, but they’re actually in a position to dictate that entirely themselves going forward. Toronto doesn’t have to listen to the whims of the league and follow suit, they now are the leaders who will be driving that. They’ll be making change only as they decide it and only as they feel a need to. This team is positioned to be a powerhouse of the S60s, it just took a lot of painful grinding to get there.

Like I said they traded out of the draft for Adam Barron, a great move for a likely 2000 tpe player who is going to be dominant and helps to bridge the gap they needed to get them over the hump a little sooner. They don’t need any more prospects really, at least not for a little while. They’re in the twilight part of the rebuild where they’re about to become contenders, legitimately. I couldn’t be more proud.

Continues on next post

An old man's dream ended. A young man's vision of the future opened wide. Young men have visions, old men have dreams. But the place for old men to dream is beside the fire.
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Thanks to Jackson, Copenhagen, and Harry Hans!

GOING DOWN IN STYLE. TOAST4LYFE
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(This post was last modified: 11-25-2020, 06:15 PM by JayWhy.)

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CALGARY DRAGONS
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S40) D – Otis B. Driftwood, (S41) G – Kata Wilde, (S43) LW – Nicky Pedersen Jr., (S44) LW – Mikael Choybuk, (S46) D – Bernik Vrzala, (S46) D – Olivier Klozoff, (S48) RW – Atlas Rush
Prospects: (S55) D – Chris Goodname, (S55) C – Mack Daddy, (S55) G – Keisuke Suzuki, (S56) D – Sachimo Zoidberg, (S56) LW – Logan Wong, (S56) RW – Thomas Rose

Alright, so this team falls under a middle ground of Manhattan and Chicago. They have good prospects like Mack Daddy and Chris Goodname who are likely to come up next season and replace Driftwood and Rush, actually. However from there, Zoidberg fills one defensive position needing filled and Rose may be on pace, but Wong doesn’t seem to be as committed as his ancestors were and they may find it difficult for the two to replace Pedersen Jr and Choybuk directly. This still leaves them with a likely goaltending gap as Suzuki doesn’t look like the answer to be the back-up, even though Calgary does have a capable up and comer to be their goalie of the future. It also leaves them with one defensive gap open that they need to address.

Ultimately this is a team similar to Manhattan of needing to get young players in as they have the longest list of teams named thus far with seven likely to be replaced soon. They need to look for the best player available, but they should have an eye on that defensive gap. Defensemen typically need longer to develop to a level that is capable in the SHL. The difference in defending in the SMJHL to the SHL is huge and time is needed for them to develop. Offensive players can step in earlier and start contributing, but defensive players need some help to get going. While I wouldn’t be surprised if they go best player available in any way, I think it would be a mistake not to try and get that defenseman now as it won’t be long until the defense they have starts crumbling and the super team that hasn’t missed the playoffs often may start stumbling and struggling to get there.

This is a team that is very interesting to say the least, because of this situation. They just had a superbly dominant run in S56, but they’re aging significantly in some areas and were in some ways carried by great defense combined with great goaltending. That isn’t always guaranteed in this league, as we’ve seen historically. No matter if you’re a goalie guru, you aren’t going to be perfect 100% of the time, and when half the defense is heading for the old folks home it’s going to be hard to keep teams in front of you and keep the puck out of your net. This makes Calgary a great candidate to watch closely moving forward as you have no idea what’s going to be happening with them and when father time is going to catch up.

Calgary Selected: C – Luukas Lilja (14)

They had one meaningful pick, similar to Manhattan actually. And in an interesting way, while Manhattan needs everything but more so needed to lean toward forward and took a defenseman, Calgary one pick later was an exact opposite. They could use any influx of youth, but more than anything they probably could’ve used a defenseman. They ended up with a forward. I’m not going to say if it was the right move or not, I haven’t at any point in this article. I’m just going to say it’s interesting the parallels between these two teams as they age and the way they combat it.

Calgary got a very good center prospect here, and that’s a big deal still. Like I said for Atlanta early on in this article, the center is one of the most valuable positions in the league and any time you can get an elite centerman you should take it. I don’t know that Lilja is elite, I don’t know if he’s great. He may be, and that’s the gamble Calgary takes here. While there were defensemen on the board for them, the potential for Lilja to be elite is clearly there and they felt the need to get the talent that could carry the team later than another piece of the machine. I don’t blame them for that. It makes sense to do and likely could benefit them later, but I do wonder the effect that will have later as well in terms of their ceiling. Are they going to reach the same heights as S56 again? As the defense ages, can they rely on their goaltender to bail them out consistently?

These questions are the same for a lot of other teams, and something that they’ll have to address. For now, they took a top talent and at the very least, it sounds like it could pay off well for them. Only time will tell.



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EDMONTON BLIZZARD
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S46) D - Eric Vanderberg, (S46) D – Chico Smeb, (S46) RW – James Truong, (S48) G – Emiko Spector, (S49) D – Denver Wolfe
Prospects: (S55) G – Peter Ramsey, (S55) D – Terrence Smith, (S55) D – Axel Foley, (S56) C – Rikki Petrov, (S56) D – Bane


This is a team that at one point looked like they were in some trouble, people had been leaving just last off-season and they struggled with filling things out. Then they went into the season and played like nothing happened and here they are in, honestly, a spectacular position. They only have a few people in line to be replaced, and realistically James Truong is unlikely to need replaced any time soon specifically but there does need to be a place for Petrov. Instead it’s the defense that will be the biggest trouble for them, and thankfully they have Axel Foley in the mix. The problem is that Foley doesn’t cover all the holes, he’s just a patch over it.

Vanderberg has announced this to be his last season, there’s been consistent rumors around the compete level of Emiko Spector. Thankfully, Foley and Ramsey are going to be ready to step in if not this season then in the next without any really hiccups in the process. What Edmonton needs to do now is focus in on that defense more. Terrence Smith was a big name who was 13th overall in the S55 Entry Draft. Bane looked promising at one point. Both flamed out rather quickly, however, showing that the promise they had was more so that they had a high skill level for SMJHL play. It’s unfortunate and means the while Edmonton has temporary bandages over the defense problem, they need some help quickly and that should be their primary focus going forward.

They have a more than capable team of covering up gaps on the team, they can be competitive without having a stellar defense. However, as their goaltending swaps over, they’re going to be facing an uphill battle if they don’t find a way to shore things up. This is a pretty straight-forward one and I don’t see a way it goes any differently.

Edmonton Selected: D – Rude Sniff (15), G – Tyler Ward (33)

The Blizzard hit the nail on the head pretty well with this one. While goaltending isn’t exactly a major need in their system with Peter Ramsey looking like a solid replacement for Spector in the coming seasons, Tyler Ward was at that point in the draft among the best remaining players and is a good pick up. Like I said earlier, in a league expanding the number of games in a season, you’re going to need to find ways to rest your players more often and goalies take a beating. It would be best to have multiple options available in net, and Ward is at the least likely to be a good back-up and looks capable of becoming a 1B to Ramsey’s 1A status in the future.

The key to this draft for Edmonton though was in the defense, and we knew that going in. Rude Sniff is somebody who has previously had attitude issues rumored, but nowadays hasn’t been talked about nearly as often. He’s got superb talent, in the same vein as most of the players taken before him, and could ultimately prove to be a number one defenseman in the distant future. At the least, the Blizzard have gotten themselves a future top four defenseman who can step in when the time comes for someone like Denver Wolfe or Chico Smeb and there won’t be that big of a change. Considering the gaps they have in the line-up, that’s perfect for Edmonton and lines them up with a need to continue growing out their defense moving forward. I would expect in the next few drafts coming up Edmonton will be a big player on the defensive side of things in order to fill those holes, even though it means their defense may struggle a bit in the early seasons of Ramsey and Ward.



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LOS ANGELES PANTHERS
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S37) D – Jack Tanner, (S39) D – Jon Toner, (S42) D – Jordan Von Matt, (S43) LW – Philipp Winter, (S43) D – Craig Finley, (S47) D – Thomas Bathory, (S47) RW – FIlip Zadina, (S47) D – Khan Smeb, (S50) LW – Andrey Barbashev
Prospects: (S56) G – Ragnar-Alexandre Ragnarsson-Tremblay, (S56) LW – Jonas Caspari, (S56) D – Jonas Kahnwald, (S56) RW - “Long” John Donair, (S56) LW – Grape Fruit

This is a team that is intriguing at the least. They have a few good young players, including two prospects who are graduating to the SHL this season in Linus Grimstad and Elias Kierkegaard. However, the holes on this roster are deep. Kierkegaard is going to take one of the defensive spots listed above, Tony Ford while no longer growing is going to be the top defenseman on the team, but otherwise the team is in a jam. They have old pieces and a weak defense because of it, and after graduating Kierkegaard to the SHL roster only have one defenseman in the pipeline as well. I don’t see a way they won’t be picking defense, but let us talk a little about the forward side as well.

The team has been preparing for this. Winter is going to last a little while longer, the question is commitment to how long he wants to go. That’s entirely up to him, but he has the ability to last past the three-season mark. The others – Zadina and Barbashev – are unlikely to be good enough to last that time. Barbashev can fill the spot, but isn’t somebody you want in that role. Zadina is going to be regressing and falling out of favor quickly with that. They thankfully have the ability to replace them with John Donair and Grape Fruit. The two are fantastic S56 prospects, which is interesting when you look a little deeper and see they were second round picks. This is great value for second rounders as they’re among the top earners in their class. So while I think Los Angeles may benefit from taking a look at the forwards, maybe in round two since they show they’ve had success late in drafts, it isn’t something where they need to. It just would be good for planning purposes considering the uncertainty around how long Winter is able to go. You never know when a wrench gets thrown into things and you have to adjust and having all bases covered is better than no bases covered.

Otherwise, it’s a clear-cut team here. They have a porous defense that is honestly shocking in some ways as beyond Ford and Bathory they don’t have much to write home about with their back end. Kierkegaard is going to be a star in the future, but this team has mostly players who are S49 and older, not getting any younger and going to be hitting regression or getting hit harder by it by the time anybody picked here would make a difference. They’re realistically stuck in a middle-ground position where they aren’t going to likely be good enough to compete for a Cup, but also won’t be bad enough to get top tier picks. It’s because of that they need to be creative with what they do, and so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some draft day moves being made from this team either. With a new General Manager in tow, the team could decide it’s time to refresh things and get even younger and aim for a specific window. They already have a few good S56 prospects to go with their S50 and younger players on the team. If they take a shot at getting younger, they could focus on this being their core and really become a powerhouse for later like teams like Tampa and New England are doing. I don’t know that they’re thinking the same way, but it’s an option I’m seeing available in this snapshot view.

Nonetheless, they are definitely the team to look for with defense on the board and it wouldn’t shock me to see them walk away with all defensemen as they try to fill their holes. It’s just the question of how long Knox Booth can hold them up, or if he may break down sooner than later.

Los Angeles Selected: D – Sean Gatez (3), D – Jari Heikkinen (8), D – Kai Ichinose (26)

Like suspected, they did go all in on defense in this draft. That is somewhat questionable, but Isn't entirely unexpected or out of the blue. This is a good strategy, Gatez isn’t known for being the most talented player but is somebody considered a good leader and can help set the tone for the next generation in Los Angeles. This is the key to drafting as well sometimes, as I alluded to with Baltimore. You have to build a culture in your organization. With new management in Los Angeles taking over a team that had a lot of older players, they were comfortable and could set a different example of the culture than what this management group wants. Ultimately you sometimes have to balance the person side and their leadership with the talent side. Gatez may not be a number one defenseman in the future, but he could get there and even if he only ends up in the top four maybe, the way he effects the mentality of the team is important and will have a huge effect on how things go for Los Angeles going forward. Ultimately, I think this was a great pick and it was justified further when they got to pick number eight and got Jari Heikkinen. Heikkinen is a tough-nose defenseman who has the talent to be a superstar in the league. Sure, like anybody, he could fall short. However, in this situation, Los Angeles got two defensemen who could be a top pairing in the future and are great personalities to help drive the message of the locker room and bridge the divide of older generation and new. They really lucked out in his falling, but that’s part of the draft is identifying who will get to where. While Heikkinen had the talent to go third overall, they knew he would fall to eighth. While Gatez may have fit as an eighth overall, he wasn’t going to make it there. Los Angeles played this draft wisely.

That is until the second round, where I was left scratching my head at first. Kai Ichinose at the time of the draft had I believe 216 TPE, didn’t look to be a stellar pick up. At the time there were others on the board like Wen Baters if they felt they had to go defense, but I’m also not sold they needed to go the defense route. While their defense is definitely in trouble, they have a window right now to pick up defensemen over the course of a few seasons rather than having to stack up in one draft. There were a lot of great forward prospects still available to them at this point, including Kaapo Kampainen who was taken the pick after. I probably would have gone the forward route to not put too many eggs in one basket, but again I’m not them and I don’t know what they do. Since the draft, Ichinose has bulked up well and could prove to be a steal at that point, we don’t know yet. However, for right now, it’s a situation that looks a little suspect and makes you wonder if they could have traded back in the draft or waited until their next pick at 44 to still get him. That’s something we’ll never know, but it does make you wonder. I’m not here to judge picks, like I’ve said, he could turn out to be great. I just don’t know that I agree with the choice myself.

With that in mind, while I would have gone with a forward somewhere along the way, you can’t deny Los Angeles knew what they needed and got it. These defensemen should all see the roster by S60 and should be serious contributors to the team.



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MINNESOTA MONARCHS
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S46) D - Dylan Karlsson, (S48) RW – Ravyn Tedisko, (S48) D – Noah Tedla, (S51) LW – Thicc Cheezy, (S52) C – Stirling MacTavish, (S52) RW – JMac NCheese, (S53) D – Ben Van Dijk
Prospects: (S55) RW – Asclepius Perseus Flitterwind, (S55) RW – Alex Marshall, (S56) C – Rock Strongo, (S56) RW – Kynwyl Pearce

This team is graduating two defensemen in Slimey Snail and Tinke Jutila who are likely taking the spots of Dylan Karlsson and Noah Tedla. That will be a change to this as it does mean they have less defense to replace, likely needing to get one more on the roster. That is something to consider, though, as Matthias Seger is hitting regression now and the team has yet to make the playoffs since the season he was drafted in S46 and looking at this likely won’t be until the S60s. The team may want to prepare for a world where Seger seeks a change of scenery, because while he’s always been very committed there, a long streak without playoffs is very taxing on a player.

Something important to notice about Minnesota in comparison to other teams on this list is that it lacks older players. It isn’t that the team is aging poorly like some others, and needing to replace the old big guns they had in place. This is a team that doesn’t have many big guns outside of Seger and Mika Mayfield. This is a team that has already been committed to rebuilding before this point and has been trying to grow out from there. This is the example of a team that didn’t draft well. Just take a look at S52 where they took Danny Marston, who is a good player for Toronto instead, and ended up with Stirling MacTavish in his place who hasn’t been around for months. JMac NCheese was promising, but hasn’t updated in over a month and at this point looks to be slower in doing it. CT Carragher is a replacement level player for Baltimore. They only got one true player out of that draft in Cal Labovitch.

This is a team that needs to focus in on their scouting department more it seems like. I’m sure they may have, actually, but from an outsider view we’re seeing where a draft that should have played a bigger part for them in S52 at this point is actually a bust. S51 and S53 they didn’t have their first-round picks. When you’re a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in over a decade in the SHL, I see no viable strategy that says you should be moving first round picks when there’s holes in your roster. In S54 the team had to trade into the first round, they got Jack Klompus out of it thankfully, but they also failed on PBJ Souppan and Grapefruit Lizard before getting Slimey Snail. S55 they got a great pick in Devin Basher, and now they’re in Hamilton. Minnesota did get Flitterwind back, but there’s definitely something going on.

This is where I wonder about the culture aspect of a team. They struggle to get new players committed it seems, being hit or miss on draft night more often than not. Sure, teams are often fifty-fifty in the draft, but this is a team that isn’t making the playoffs and needs to get a jolt. It’s because of that I’m not going to specify a position in this. Sure, they could look forward or defense and honestly both ways would get them better. They need talent, young talent. What they need most is leadership. They need someone that isn’t the General Manager or in management to help guide the locker room and steer the ship in the right direction. Right now, they’re in a whirlpool, sometimes they spin in the right direction, other times they veer off course. They need someone who can find the path around this and get them to the promised land. This is a tall task and a tough order, but it’s something that can be done. Committing to the locker room is what will make this team improve and is going to actually make the scouting look better by proxy because the players they’ve picked who maybe were more on the edge instead are going to find new commitment with true leadership in the locker room.

Minnesota Selected: D – Arsene Leclerc (2), G – Hugo Gronroos (30), D - Jimmy Nutcluster (40), RW – Kyle Murray (58)

These are talented picks, legitimately. At 40 you likely aren’t getting much in the SHL draft, and at 58 it’s a needle in a haystack to find someone who could become something. Those picks become more about cap management than they do about the picks themselves. The important parts here are Leclerc and Gronroos. Like I said earlier, this team needs to focus on the leadership in the locker room. The question now becomes are Leclerc and Gronroos going to be the people who drive the locker room forward? I don’t know the answer to that, but I can say as someone who has messed that decision up before, it’s hard to miss on a number two pick. I’m sure he’ll be just fine.

This team is interesting, because they have some great prospects who are going to be impactful, but they don’t have a lot of great prospects, or a lot of great players, or a lot of anything. They miss out in depth most of all, and so they needed to pad that as much as they could. Leclerc will be a good defenseman, the team will likely be more defensive heavy to start competing while they develop. This is a good strategy and a smart move, you can get more wins if you form a good defensive barrier and go for those 3-2 wins than if you try to out gun somebody and they bulldoze you. This team knows what they’re doing in that way. The question is if this actually pans out. I can’t answer that personally right now, but with regards to history of the member, this could end up being more of a toss-up than expected.

Like I’ve said with others before, I don’t know what they saw. I’m not in their locker room to know what they have there truly. This is all an outsider viewpoint, but one that sees some rough seas as they frequently are moving prospects out or losing people altogether. I know it isn’t easy to manage a team in the SHL, and there will always be bumps in the road. This could be the stabilizing force that helps slow those bumps or stop them entirely, or it may not. We’ll find out in possibly five seasons, but for now they made the best choice they could with the information presented and got what they needed most which is talent.



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NEW ORLEANS SPECTERS
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S42) D – Geoff Moore, (S43) RW – Lil Manius, (S43) LW – Nicholas Williams, (S43) C – Steven Moyer, (S47) RW – Boruvka Banananak, (S48) D – Darnell Johnson, (S49) Derek Bohne Jr., (S51) LW – Kenny Creller, (S54) LW – Kwame Dakari
Prospects: (S56) RW – Zbynek Dobrovsky, (S56) C – Xavier Doom

Woof, huh.

So that’s a long list of players needing replaced, and paramount among it is that Geoff Moore, Nicholas Williams and Derek Bohne Jr have already announced their intentions to retire at the end of the season. That’s going to be pretty painful for them as losing two defensemen and having none in the wings doesn’t usually bode well for a team. There is also rumor of them losing top defenseman Rex Kirkby to free agency, at which point their defense may start looking a lot more patchwork. Meanwhile they have a lot of forward spots being filled by players who aren’t growing any more, some of which are actively regressing to a point that they may just be replacement level soon enough. That is a major issue for the team.

Here’s the thing about New Orleans though -- this was the deal they made when they went for being competitive out of their expansion draft. That paid off for them, they won the Challenge Cup and have never not been in the playoffs at this point in their franchise’s history. That is remarkable, but it does come with a cost. They haven’t had many picks and are now staring down the barrel of a shotgun held by Father Time himself. Moyer and Manius are good players, but for how much longer. Banananak is starting to regress, and Darnell Johnson will be too meaning that’s four defensive spots to be filled. Creller and Dakari haven’t been online in over a month and there aren’t really any signs of that changing. They even have to consider goaltending realistically as while they have a great goaltender in Aleister Cain, he’s regressing pretty hard too now and Olli Saarinen Jr. ended up slowing down later in their career. They’re still good and serviceable, but it may be a good idea to get a back-up plan in place.

This is a team in the same spot as teams like Calgary and Manhattan and Chicago. They bought in hard to be competitive and now they pay the price, needing to restock quickly and effectively. It’s possible to get the pieces needed, but it’s going to be a tall order for them as well. Dobrovsky Isn't a bad prospect per se, but he isn’t going to be a superstar. Doom looks good, so they have that going for them. This team Isn't really going into the draft looking for one specific thing, they’re going in looking for everything. Talent, young talent, is the goal here. Whoever they get is going to be asked to step up quickly and so they need to get the best player available at every spot to guarantee that this downswing they’re about to enter isn’t one that lasts.

New Orleans Selected: LW – Vlastislav Malik (4), G – Jon St. Ark (10), C – Cian McFelter (12), D – Robert Feltersnatch (18), D – Farley Hank (21)

This is how you restock the cabinets. The Specters had the benefit of four first round picks and five in the top 21 of the draft. That’s a big haul to bring in from a draft. They got the forward talent needed to replace players like Manius and Moyer as well as the defensive players needed to fill things out there as the defense continues to crumble a bit around them. They even managed to bring in the best goaltender in the draft in St. Ark to help quell the fears about Cain and Saarinen not being the answer for the long term.

This is going to be a major draft for the Specters and is a big turn for them honestly. This could be the new core for them, and I’m sure that’s what they’re hoping for. When you get this many first-round picks in one draft it's through great planning usually, and ultimately is that crux of the team that drives you to a Cup ten seasons later. They still have a lot of pieces to fill because while Malik and McFelter are players who fit in for Moyer and Manius, that leaves three forward spots, specifically on the wing, needing filled and by the point they fill those Cloutier and Muller may need replaced as well. They brought in two defensemen, but they really need another two to go with Kaspars Claude – who is about to hit regression as well -- and Conner Hutton. This team is still a work in progress for sure, they aren’t guaranteed to be top dogs in ten seasons. They did lay good groundwork here though, and provided they can keep this up should see no problem with at least maintaining a playoff caliber moving forward.



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SAN FRANCISCO PRIDE
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S39) D – Liam O’Callaghan, (S42) G – Geezus Kryyst, (S48) D - Padraig Sarantez, (S48) RW – Bobby Bobcalf, (S48) D – Haley Knight, (S49) C – Jake Primeau, (S49) LW – Ricky Spanish, (S51) D – Luciano Vessot, (S51) C – Stracimir Petrovic, (S52) D – Noah Nystrom
Prospects: (S55) D – Rikard Bjerg, (S55) C – Sven Gunnar, (S55) C – Walton Stromberg, (S55) G – Nicolae Antonescu, (S55) D – Nathan Thomas, (S56) LW – Yngve Simonsson, (S56) LW – Patrik Money, (S56) C – Daedalus James, (S56) RW – Kev Kevens, (S56) G – Valterri Aalto, (S56) LW – Chad Danger

This is a lot to digest, honestly. Let’s start where all good things do with the beginning. This team is realistically going to be overhauled multiple times over. They endured a horrible situation with a major cap punishment of over $12-million and that isn’t even the beginning really. They fall into a difficult situation due to missteps taken previously from the bust at #1 overall Simothy Drunkebird in S52 to the trade for Geezus Kryyst giving up picks while the team still have other holes needing addressed more urgently. The team was a mess, to say the least, and continues to be at this point. They’re guaranteed to be toward the bottom of the league and are truly aiming for the early S60s to be their renaissance at the best. This is where their prospects will start to thrive is around S62.

That said, the team has good forward prospects, at least enough to fill out two lines and some of them could be superstar caliber like Walton Stromberg. Rikard Bjerg is a great defensive prospect, though they need a lot more than one and Nathan Thomas is okay but probably doesn’t move the needle much. He should be serviceable in the SHL level and maybe could surprise a few at his peak. This is a team in need of talent, they’re going to go in and search for the best player available every chance they get, because they’re now so devoid of that talent due to the cap punishments laid on them and the hemorrhaging they did for what ultimately was a short run of playoff contention. It’s a team where so much has already been said that there isn’t anything left to say, yet there’s no way to remain silent on them either.

This team is one that should also look toward defense, which is a common theme for most teams. Defense is a prime position that with the expansion has been stretched a little thin around the league, meaning it’s also hard to come by. San Francisco unfortunately doesn’t have much to fall back on to make the transition any easier, and until they get the defense in their system they’re going to be kind of like Minnesota was with Seger but in their case with Bjerg. Defense is going to be a big piece of their puzzle, and now that they have a great goalie prospect about to make their debut, It'll be very important to line things up right so they can have a great defense around them when they start entering their peak. They could continue getting some forwards as well, but the focus should be on the back end and making sure you stack up when It's time for things to come around so you aren’t just finding fillers in free agency later on where the picking gets slim.

San Francisco Selected: D – Ruggs McOoooh (7), LW – Jarmo Kekalainen (19), C – Igor Petrov (31), RW – Mikael Koskinen (32), C - Sonata Diamante (36), LW – Anna Pontecorvo (37)

Alright, okay, cool cool cool cool. Not exactly what I expected, as they continue to have very little defensive depth in their farm system. They did get one of the top defensive prospects in the league at seventh overall, so that’s a win. It does help them toward that ultimate goal, but they failed to do it again at any point. While Kekalainen is a great player, you can see Farley Hank, Michael Scotch, Wen Baters were all there for the taking as well. So it isn’t something where they didn’t have great defensive options available, it’s where they chose to go for more forwards. I don’t know if the idea is that they’ll run and gun and outrace the opponent, but this is definitely an interesting strategy that from the outside is harder to relate to. I don’t know how the plan goes from here, but I fully expect it to be defense heavy going forward. In a draft that had a lot of great defensive depth, they now have to hope everyone else got their fill and that defense is heavily available in the coming drafts as well. That’s a lot of ask for, and they may not get that to come together as well as they need it to.

All in all, this was a team that needed talent and they got it. These are good picks, a lot of forward talent that could help them in hedging their bets on who they already have. I just have to wonder if it’s going to be good enough to wait on defense to come around to them rather than seek it out at times considering the situation they’re in where they have Bjerg, Alex Petrenko on the roster and now Ruggs, but that fills out only half of the defense. Beyond that yes, Nathan Thomas and Fleetway Super Sonic are there but they’re slower earning players who likely won’t move the needle any closer to a Cup. I think they missed the mark here, personally, but again like with all teams I don’t know what they’re seeing that I may not be or what they know that I wouldn’t. This could be a situation that I’m not seeing the full picture, but it’s definitely something that isn’t inspiring a lot of confidence currently. A few seasons down the line, we’ll see how this actually ends up going. Maybe it’ll all come around, but they definitely need to focus on defense in the next draft coming up.



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SEATTLE ARGONAUTS
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S43) D – Tig Murphy, (S46) C – Knute Knurtsson, (S46) C – Kristoffer Svensson, (S46) RW – Anastasia O’Koivu, (S49) G – Nolan McMahon, (S49) D – Mikas Bieksa, (S50) LW – Gylfi Eriksson, (S50) LW – Alexei Rykov
Prospects: (S56) C – Dee Centerman IV, (S56) RW – Vaseline Podcalzone, (S56) D – Yuuto Kira Cloudera Jr., (S56) RW – Zdenko Beranek, (S56) RW – William Salming

The other expansion team, this one not so blessed as Atlanta was as they weren’t as competitive out of the gates. However, they are building a solid prospect depth pool. The key here being that they have only one defenseman in their farm system and that’s going to be important, as they fall under the same situation as everyone else in needing more defense. This gets to be even more important as Cloudera is a slower earner and likely isn’t going to be capable of replacing someone like Tig Murphy in the long run, making it that Seattle is really going to be reeling for a high end defensive prospect soon. Cloudera should be fine as a Bieksa cover-up instead, and likely surpasses Bieksa’s level even.

The focus of Seattle currently is similar to Atlanta, you just need to continue to bring in the best players you possibly can with the picks you currently have. They need to stock their cupboards, and this is a prime time to do so and especially with so much defense available in the draft. Their prospect depth is mostly on the wing, with one high-end center prospect who will be perfect to replace their weak depth as Knurtsson and Svensson both age their way out of the league. Podcalzone is a very good wing prospect, while Beranek and Salming are ideal for that top six role where they could likely play up to the first line if needed. That fills the wing spots I have listed here for them and leaves them in need of just one more player to truly fill out the spots they’re missing.

Seattle is also one of the teams in the market for goaltending as they found this season Nolan McMahon from Los Angeles was definitely better fit as a back-up than in a starting role. I fully expected Seattle to target goaltending in their first draft last season, but instead they delayed on it. This time around they cannot afford to delay it and are going to have to go after a goaltender, most likely with their first pick. While defense is a priority, if you don’t have someone behind them to stop the puck, the defense can only do so much. It’s going to be a back end heavy draft for Seattle nonetheless and we should expect to see them targeting the best players available no matter what position they end up.

Seattle Selected: G – Yanno Rosejac (20), D – Ren-Ekelemchi Shimizu-Okoli (23)

Just as expected, they went after a goaltender with their first pick and got one of the best available in Rosejac. This is a pretty straightforward pick as they don’t have a high-end goaltender and with McMahon just two seasons from starting regression, Rosejac should be in place to replace McMahon as soon as S59 even. It won’t take much for Rosejac to out-earn McMahon and at that point the sky is the limit and this should be a major pick for Seattle’s future renaissance.

The pick of Shimizu-Okoli is also a big piece to their puzzle, though, and not something to scoff at. At the very least this is a player of the caliber to play a top four role, and that’s important. As they lose Murphy, Cassius Darrow is stepping up into a bigger role. While they need a top tier player to replace Murphy in the long run, getting someone who is maybe more defined as “good enough” is a great route to go. They should still look to prioritize finding an elite defenseman as Darrow is in the early stages of regression now, but they should see no issue moving forward with their plan and possibly starting to compete in the early parts of the S60s. This is a good plan by Seattle as they just continue to fill out the farm system and move to the future piece by piece.




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TEXAS RENEGADES
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: None
Prospects: (S55) LW – Theo Kondos, (S56) LW – Slava Petrov, (S56) LW – Lemo Pihl

Well hello there, Toronto-West. This is again a remarkable job done that I can only say bravo to. They have nobody in line to be replaced, if I nitpick I could say the back-up goalie could be a target to go. It doesn’t ultimately matter all that much. Their oldest players are Andreas Kvalheim -- the Dar master – and Josef Kubinec, two players who are still beyond exceptional. Maybe you could say Ivan Maximus could be in danger of being squeezed out by the cap in the same way that Skao Anazibf is for Hamilton, but realistically he’s still a great player and is pretty young. He’s probably the most at risk on the team, realistically.

This is where we hit a different situation, though. Texas has a deep team where only the recent graduates Mikkel Asmus Sondergard and Joseph Fantobens aren’t in the 1000 tpe level yet and Sondergard is almost there as is. Next season Theo Kondos is due to come up to the SHL level, Slava Petrov and Lemo Pihl will be a season later. Texas is a team in an unenviable position of not having room on the roster for even Kondos who is a top-tier, high-end player. Kondos is the kind of elite player that can take the place of a Kvalheim down the line. The question now becomes what they do, they’re going to have to take a good player and move them out and possibly for cheap considering they’re in this position with it. That’s when cap implications come in, we could see one of Sulfurgold or Hudson be on the outs. They’re a little slower growing than Kondos, and their contracts end at the end of the season. Moving one of them and giving the extra $1-million pay raise earned by Edward Wiliams to him gets them into a position to maintain the same cap flexibility while opening a spot for Kondos. That then gets to a difficult spot a season later when Pihl and Petrov are both due up and they have to make a decision of who’s spots do they take or do they move Pihl and Petrov for future assets to take the place when some of their current crop starts to falter in say the mid-S60s most likely. If aiming for those mid-S60s, you suddenly don’t need to make any picks actually until S60 itself at the earliest and likely later than that.

Texas is in a fascinating spot, perfectly in line to take off and so I wouldn’t expect them to get involved in the draft and honestly they’re in the position of using their picks as leverage to enhance their roster where needed, granted it’s hard to see where it would be needed. Who knows, maybe something will happen, you do have to prepare for the unexpected to happen still. This is a team to watch for the long term, though.

Texas Selected: Nobody


They made the right choices, they got out of the draft and didn’t have to worry about it. Now the question becomes how to handle things moving forward. They’re going to be fascinating to watch because they’re the team best placed to be meeting Tampa Bay and New England in the Challenge Cup Finals in the future from the West, if FHM allows a natural bracket instead sometime. It will be interesting to follow how they navigate this period where they’re packed to the brim with talent and have picks to move as well. They need to be careful how they plan as the cap will come into play, but they’re easily there with Toronto as a great placed team for the present – minus the Great Lakes Division – and the future.



[Image: Winnipeg.png]
WINNIPEG JETS
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S43) LW - Ignatius Blunt, (S43) C – Goku Muerto, (S43) LW – Jack Kennedy, (S46) D – Osbert Whacker, (S46) RW - Yoshimitsu McCloud, (S52) RW – Bale
Prospects: (S55) RW – James Kimanje, (S55) LW – Zelma Zuntnere, (S55) RW – Victor Ball, (S56) D – Sarah Burke, (S56) C – Jst Maro, (S56) D – Jasper Maximov

This is the image of a team in transition, the issue being that they’ve been that transition team for a while now. Winnipeg is the kind of team you get when you try to retool rather than rebuild. The team has a mixture of players where they have maybe one or two from every draft since S43. That can be great sometimes, if you’re a consistent contender and everyone is maxing out and so you keep hitting different windows as you go. However, this is a team that hasn’t been the max out talent that you’re looking for with that style. This is a team that has no defined window. They’re the middling team who, now that we have the expanded playoff format, will likely make the playoffs but they just don’t show the promise to be the team that goes far.

That is to say, I don’t know what they should go for. It looks like most of their older players are forwards, so forwards would make sense to go after. Otherwise, do they go for more picks? Do they make a move for younger players? They had to move Adam Barron to Toronto recently, and they brought in some great prospects in Kimanje, Burke and Maximov in the process which is spectacular. They have most of the prospects to replace what they’re going to be losing, but are they going to hit their peaks at a time the others in their system are also peaking to justify them? This is a confusing situation to be in, it complicates things because at no point do you have a season that is all in with this set up and so either you’re always all in or you’re always outside and this team feels in that middle ground that is likely more so on the outside.

I know the old adage of anything can happen in the playoffs, but now we’re four seasons into FHM and it’s continued to prove that isn’t the case. At the very least, you have to have a collection of talent peaking at the same time to be good enough to make it into the Conference Finals even. This isn’t like STHS anymore where anyone who made it to the dance got a lottery ticket to hit big. It’s now that there’s the homecoming court that gets to choose one of them to make it, and the teams on the outside are the nerds about to get swirlied or something. It isn’t great, and so while it’s good to be a team trying to make it in, you would rather be a team with the defined peak to make it far.

Winnipeg Selected: LW – Dwayne Gretzky (5), LW – Freyja Hellstrom (6), G – Vincent Mietitore (25), RW - Marabelle Octive (43)

Once again the team is looking the same as always. They did great here, they got high end talent early in the draft between Gretzky and Hellstrom, and Mietitore and Octive are great later pick-ups in the draft as well. It’s just that now you add the two or three forwards from this draft to the two defensemen from the previous draft and the couple of forwards from the draft before and you continue to have a period where you don’t have a specific window. Could the Jets be a team that wins a Cup in the S60s? Sure. Could they also be a team that spends the next 10-plus seasons getting taken out in the first round? Also sure.

This is a good draft for a team that needs to replace big pieces, which Muerto is a big piece for Winnipeg and McCloud as well. They’re going to be useful and impactful to the team, the question is more so of when and how that effects Winnipeg. They got great players, but the vision isn’t as easy to see from the outside. Maybe they have different views of how the team is built, or maybe they’re just trying to stay in the hunt. I don’t actually know, I don’t speak to General Managers prior to this article because I don’t need to. From the outsider view, this is confusing and makes me wonder when, or even if, at any point Winnipeg is going to bring home another Challenge Cup. It could be that I’m missing a piece to the puzzle, it often is. It’s just difficult to see that big picture view right now.



That’s it, over 15,000 words in discussion of how teams did addressing their needs and how teams are doing with building their teams. Some teams did great with adding the talents they needed, some of them really just need to get talent at all. There were headscratchers, of course, but most of it was pretty straightforward.

While I said this often throughout, let me reiterate here at the end that in no way am I specifically judging and saying anyone did the wrong thing at any point. Like I’ve stated before, this is a snapshot of a moment in time. Since I started on this article, players have moved, trades have been made and the world continued to spin. It would be impossible for me to know the ins and outs of all of the teams in the SHL while running my own. I’m looking at roughly three feet of a mile of a 5K. There’s a long, long way to go and so much is going to happen that what I see now may not even be what I see in a month. So please, don’t take it personally, I’m just taking a look from the outside and saying what my mind is thinking.

That wraps it up, and I hope you’ve enjoyed the ride as much as I have. Teams will always be changing, things happen that make plans change and keep you on your toes. It’s just a matter of when and where that change happens. When it does, maybe I’ll make my way back to the media to talk about it again. Good. Night.

An old man's dream ended. A young man's vision of the future opened wide. Young men have visions, old men have dreams. But the place for old men to dream is beside the fire.
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#3

Insane work. I thought my articles were solid but you're over here making me look like a peasant! Great write up.
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#4

Just finished the whole thing and it was probably the best draft related media piece piece in the entirety of this weird 2020 year. Great work JY and a very interesting ( and at least in BUF's case spot on). I hope you'll get a decent sized bonus for quality

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#5

Thanks again man that all means a ton coming from you, but the real credit has to go to all my players for their hard work and dedication to making Toronto into the type of team I envisioned us being when I applied

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#6

JayWhy? Does the Why stand for Why are you so intelligent and good-looking? Great work. Wow.

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#7

this might be the best media i've read all year

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#8

hell yeah jy, this was some awesome stuff

(stop making me question my wishful thinking about the open market pls)

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#9

Awesome work, holy cow. Also appreciate the love given to Toronto. Glad to see we aren’t the butt end of jokes anymore... we’ve come a long way with a long way to go.

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#10

This is so good. I enjoyed reading parts of it (as it was a lot to read and I skimmed a bunch). Its definitely good to say this is where I disagree and instead of getting into something you step away. It was really well thought out. I'm excited to see the future of the teams that are developing

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#11

This is the best read I have seen on SHL so far. It really helped me understand the teams I am going to see in the SHL ins a couple years, thank you for that!

Cheerz

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#12

What a great article, very well done!!

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#13

Wow, what a read. Great work man!

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#14

Great article!
This is as mentioned earlier probably the best media I've seen in my time here

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#15

15.5k words...wow.

Great read too.

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