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Who's Screwed? The SMJHL Teams, Rated By How Hard Graduation Has Hit Them
#1

A preface: I had to bodge a lot of this together as, during the writing process, the portal ticked over and automatically graduated everyone with a season 72 draft class before I'd had the chance to make notes of who was graduating. There are bound to be mistakes in here because I had to pull from a few places to get this information; I can only hope to mitigate them. 

Every team (with one exception, I think) is going to be losing players to graduation as they complete their four seasons and head up to the big leagues, so the real question left is the one in the title - who's screwed? Let's have a look.


Anchorage Armada
Losing: Dan Johnston (Atlanta Inferno), Joseph Reed (Buffalo Stampede), Kazuchika Okada (Toronto North Stars)
Impact: Heavy

Anchorage are saying goodbye to three members of their roster this year and they're taking some big hits. Reed was the team's highest scoring forward, held down the first line and is probably a big part of why second-year burgeoning star Deep Thought had as impressive a year as he did - as much as folks in the Armada camp say Ubba Lodbrok is ready to step up, even if the Dane can compensate for the lost scoring the depth behind him at centre isn't fantastic. Johnston, likewise, led the team's defensive corps in point scoring and deserves to be on the MVP longlist, but the drop-off from Okada and Johnston to Jean-Francois Bokassa is marked and really makes you wonder who's going to ride alongside the Bangui Banger: Bokassa is the only other defenseman with more than a single season under his belt. It feels much too early to put that responsibility on Carter Crutchfield - perhaps this will precipitate the Armada cashing in their chips and entering the rebuild cycle.


Carolina Kraken
Losing: Westley Kirkpatrick (Toronto North Stars), Lilian Flapberg (Atlanta Inferno), Lazer Gato (Minnesota Monarchs), Chris Robertson (Tampa Bay Barracuda)
Impact: Heavy

Just like Anchorage, the end of the Kraken's season means they also wave goodbye to their top defensive pairing, and it's again going to be a difficult task to replace such an ugly hole. Unlike the Armada, however, Carolina have already started work on it, investing two top 10 picks in last season's draft (their own and the 2nd overall, once the property of Kelowna) in defensive prospects. Neither Ongo Gablogian nor Olivija Agate are quite in a position to step up and shoulder the enhanced competition the top pairing faces, but they may not have much of a choice in the matter either. Carolina have the 2nd overall pick this year as well, obtained through their own merits (or lack thereof) so it'll be interesting for fans to speculate whether the management invest another podium pick on the blueline or if they look towards next season - while they do only have one more year of Rence Sykut and Betzee Nickelback, Dag-Otto Bjorntjanst and Roger Murdoch are waiting in the wings (so to speak) to pick up the mantle down the middle.


Colorado Raptors
Losing: Nicholas Scalice (free agent)
Impact: Minimal

It's almost unfair that the Raptors are back among the top teams in the league because their squad is set up to keep that carousel going for a few years yet. Backup goalie Scalice will age out and will need replacing, but they have sophomore and rookie players already chewing up a lot of key minutes - the impending loss of Jussi Mutou and Xavier Beausoleil will lead to some teething pains next year, but there's a lot of attacking ready to step into their skates.


Detroit Falcons
Losing: Wayne Holloway (Manhattan Rage), Zedward Zilliams (Hamilton Steelhawks), The Murray (Tampa Bay Barracuda), Trevor Lahey (Hamilton Steelhawks)
Impact: Heavy

Detroit's rise to powerhouse was probably not one many fans would have called previously and arguably comes ahead of schedule, so it'd be silly to suggest this season is their championship window. With that said, four of the team's six starters on opening day in season 74 are not going to be there come puck drop in season 75 and unmistakeably the biggest loss is perennial All-Star Wayne Holloway. The goaltender has suffered through a couple of miserable seasons and the Falcons are treating his impending disappearance as extra fuel for their playoff fire, looking to get their venerable netminder a ring and a Cup. Fourth-round pick Luke Fromm has looked very good - 3 shutouts, a save percentage north of .900 and 2.51 GAA - but in very limited action, playing in just 18 games, so anointing him the saviour would be very presumptuous. This is all not to mention the skaters: between them, Detroit's three centres tallied two fewer points than Trevor Lahey, and a lot is going to be asked of Emil Karlsson next season.


Great Falls Grizzlies
Losing: Arnošt Hlemýžď (Manhattan Rage)
Impact: Limited

This rating is not about disrespecting the good name of Arnošt or suggesting he's easy to replace - he isn't. The reason it's going to have a limited impact is purely and simply because the Grizzlies appear to already be looking past him. The defensive corps is going to be poor next season, Peanut will have to develop the muscles of mighty Hercules to carry the can there, but besides Arnošt and Peanut they're all raw rookies. It's very possible Great Falls will be looking at a podium draft pick again next season but I suspect that was always going to be the case regardless.


Kelowna Knights
Losing: Activity Check (Hamilton Steelhawks), Rocky Orwell (New England Wolfpack), Trey Daniels (Chicago Syndicate)
Impact: Middling

There's an argument to be made that these three graduations aren't as bad as my assessment of the impact makes it sound, with the amount of forwards Kelowna have to play with: AC is one of the Knights' top offensive weapons, but behind him is Daniel Durkburg, Jerry Moonshine and if they decide to switch him back to the centre Rodrigo Banes. But even acknowledging that, Kelowna are firmly rebuilding and after losing Check and Daniels will have one line of forwards with experience and then a roster full of sophomores. The defense looks somewhat stronger and doesn't take as big a hit but times are going to be rough for a while in Kelowna.


Maine Timber
Losing: Nelly Celly (Calgary Dragons), Jason Bolden (Minnesota Monarchs), Leon Rizzton (Texas Renegades), Maxwell King II (Manhattan Rage), Buster Knutt (Buffalo Stampede), Daquavion Davis Jr (Calgary Dragons)
Impact: Middling

Despite the ugly numbers, Maine are in a better place to weather losing six of their squad than might seem. Celly was better than backup Shotty McStopper, but McStopper came in as a raw rookie and there is every reason to expect them to improve. King led the team in goals and third in points, but his departure means an opportunity for one of the Francois Lavoie Lavoie trio to play bigger minutes. If they're going to fall down somewhere, it'll be on defense - Maine's defensive corps averages out among the league's best and they will still have Goldbum and Teal'c to rely upon but finding some fresh faces to put in front of McStopper should be the Timber's first priority. As is so often the way, there's strength in depth, and that's taking the bigger hit.


Nevada Battleborn
Losing: Aksel VINSen (Manhattan Rage), I-Stir MyPudding (Manhattan Rage), Shaggy Bear (Free agent), Colin Zwiers (Free agent)
Impact: Middling

I considered listing this as limited, but 1) it's hard to justify losing a top-pairing defenseman and a career point-per-game winger as a limited loss and 2) while Nevada look like they have talent in depth on the wing it's a bit of a smokescreen. Literally Wizard would be the natural heir to VINSen's spot, but despite being formally registered as a left winger he spent this season playing centre, as did rookie Florian Hascek. Matter of fact, the Battleborn only have ONE natural centre on their roster - fifth round pick Kaiden Brown - and that undercuts a lot of what would otherwise look like a real strength. The loss of the Dessert King isn't negligible either - it is one that Nevada are better placed to weather, but even with players like Caspian Leevi showing offensive promise it's a big jump to expect them to pick up MyPudding's slack at the drop of a hat. All eyes there are going to be on Sergey Ivanov, a first round pick a couple of seasons ago who's going to get the opportunity to really cement himself as THE playmaker on this defense.


Newfoundland Berzerkers
Losing: Dan Craig (Tampa Bay Barracuda), Dylan Jacob-Smith (Seattle Argonauts), Wes Thunderbass (Tampa Bay Barracuda)
Impact: Limited

The reason I ranked Nevada at "middling" is exactly why Newfoundland are getting away with "limited" in terms of impact. Dan Craig is obviously a big loss, but his average ice time was not just down from the extremes of last season (almost 22 minutes per game thanks to playing the PK unit) but from his sophomore season as well because the Berzerkers chose to ice a younger first line who certainly did not disgrace themselves. Finding the secondary scoring to replace Craig and Thunderbass will obviously be a high priority, but Newfoundland genuinely do appear to have the strength in depth among their skaters to make this a transfer that won't hurt quite as much.DJS will be missed, though, as possibly the least selfish set-up man in the league.


Quebec City Citadelles
Losing: Rowan O'Beirne (San Francisco Pride), Jaromir Jagrbomb (Manhattan Rage), Jeff Hunziker (Minnesota Monarchs), Lean On (Retired)
Impact: Heavy
I do regret not building some nuance into this analysis because I feel QCC might lie on the border of "middling" and "heavy", but I'm thousands of words into this piece so tough. Much as Citadelles fans will point to their extreme wave of talent - only about to get stronger, as they own the first overall pick in the coming draft - you'd be a fool to suggest that this isn't going to hurt. The Owls are the only team to lose multiple point-per-game players - O'Beirne finished with 67 from 66 games, although it's easy to overlook with players like Hunziker and the Solbergs being in the headlines - and that is going to make life tougher for everybody left. The days of being able to run three killer lines and defeat any attempts at line matching are, if not quite in the rear-view mirror, certainly passing. How well Quebec deals with Jagrbomb's graduation will most likely depend on how much of a step up former first overall Demir Bellona can take: he provided plenty of offense with relatively ice time, and there's 3 minutes per game of powerplay time that needs filling.


Regina Elk
Losing: Adrians Skalbergs (Free agent), Philippe Le Bel (Free agent)
Impact: Minimal

There was a sense that the Elk had already prepared to lose these two to aging out towards the end of the season, knowing they were far closer to a podium draft pick than any success. Skalbergs was scratched for the last handful of games, allowing waiver wire pickup Jennifer Huh to put a few games under her belt before formally entering the draft, while Le Bel's icetime dropped from his campaign last season as he found himself stapled to the third pairing. There's not much more to be said on the matter save that Regina are going to have to do some work in the draft to get close to true contendership.


St. Louis Scarecrows
Losing: Konig Wolf (New Orleans Spectres), Cameron Dallas (Minnesota Monarchs), Kellen Watkins (Minnesota Monarchs), Dee Fence (Minnesota Monarchs), Artturi Lappalainen (New Orleans Spectres)
Impact: Heavy

The Monarchs must have had a scout permanently stationed on the Gateway Arch, musn't they? If Scarecrows fans want to see success, they're going to be watching the highlights from their S72 Four Star Cup-winning run before they tune into the live games because St. Louis has been gutted by graduation - their first-line wingers have both left, second-line centre Dallas is gone, their top defensive pairing are both no more, and this is on top of the fact they would have been picking first overall had they not flipped that pick to Quebec City many moons ago for Elena Maximova. Things are going to be miserable for St. Louis, that's for damn sure.


Vancouver Whalers
Losing: Colt Fox (New England Wolfpack), Scott Seitz (Calgary Dragons), Remington Richardson III (Toronto North Stars), Grell Fortox (Chicago Syndicate)
Impact: Middling

Looking at the plus-minus figures I'm surprised Vancouver finished as high as they did, especially with a putrid -10.4 shots / game differential. While there's an argument to be made that this isn't going to hurt the Whalers as badly as it might appear - Fortox played around half the season, while Seitz and RR3 finished the season as the third-string defensive pairing - there are big question marks about who's going to be their new presence down the centre. Fox will be supplanted by GM's Son but who takes the second-line centre job? Kolen Henderson put up some points but finished with one of the team's worst plus-minus numbers at -27 and Bris Kryant also only played about half the regular season. Finishing 8th in the table was Vancouver probably punching above their weight and I suspect they're going to be overmatched next season unless they strike gold in the draft.


Yukon Malamutes
Losing: Nobody
Impact: Zero

Yeah, the Malamutes currently do not have a single player drafted in the S72 draft on their roster. Six S73, six S74 and five S75, but nobody's graduating this year unless Atlanta decide they badly need a defensive upgrade that Kristian Seppanen would give them.



So, who's screwed the worst? Sound off below, especially if you think it's anybody other than Detroit. 2445 words, according to the site.

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#2

The Dogs stay together

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#3

01-17-2024, 03:28 PMJexter Wrote: The Dogs stay together

Got that dawg in em


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#4

you're all screwed when the owls win the cup next season

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#5

Very interesting take. I'm sure it must have been a lot of work gathering all the information, so thanks for doing that in your free time. Although as a side note i wanna add that i think it would of been worth mentioning Céleste Desjardins as they have been putting up crazy numbers for QCC. Of course it's not quite a criticism per say as i'm sure there are so many more names people can add to this from each team. Nevertheless it's a very interesting and well written media.

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#6

01-17-2024, 03:28 PMJexter Wrote: The Dogs stay together

S75 is going to be a big one for us Malamutes Malamutes Malamutes

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#7

Nice write up! But we'll be fine on the back end without Jagrbomb. Although he was a total stud, we have 4 425D on the team this year and 2 350s. I think we'll be fine on the back end.

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#8
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2024, 12:57 PM by ec06aaj. Edited 1 time in total.)

01-17-2024, 08:47 PMTsunny Wrote: Very interesting take. I'm sure it must have been a lot of work gathering all the information, so thanks for doing that in your free time. Although as a side note i wanna add that i think it would of been worth mentioning Céleste Desjardins as they have been putting up crazy numbers for QCC. Of course it's not quite a criticism per say as i'm sure there are so many more names people can add to this from each team. Nevertheless it's a very interesting and well written media.

I'm sure, but the main thrust here is who's leaving and the holes they leave so I wasn't devoting too many column inches to the existing studs unless it seemed particularly apposite (or in the Solbergs case, because twin sister forwards would probably get 'the headlines' for being an easy to market story). Every team has somebody who would warrant being included if it were on prospects or the future talent pipeline, as you say.

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#9

Nice analysis! I love that article.

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#10

01-18-2024, 12:53 PMec06aaj Wrote: I'm sure, but the main thrust here is who's leaving and the holes they leave so I wasn't devoting too many column inches to the existing studs unless it seemed particularly apposite (or in the Solbergs case, because twin sister forwards would probably get 'the headlines' for being an easy to market story). Every team has somebody who would warrant being included if it were on prospects or the future talent pipeline, as you say.
Ah, make sense, that's a very fair point actually. And i'm sure the Solbergs would probably be an easy to marked story as you say so it make sense mentioning them. Of course i do think you have written a really good media here too, just to make that absolutely clear (Though i'm sure i have mentioned that in my prior reply too).

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