10-27-2020, 12:49 PMWally Wrote:

10-27-2020, 12:41 PMDuff101 Wrote: Firstly, as I mentioned earlier shutouts are effectively equivalent to GAA. Goalies that get shot on less have less shutouts. Secondly, my rationale behind it was focusing mainly on shots stopped, and Knox Booth stopped nearly 13 more shots per game compared to Vilde. The point isn't necessarily to punish goalies on good teams but to reward ones who put the team on their back. The fact is Knox Booth had way more of an impact on the team than Kata Vilde did. If we take the average save percentage from all goalies this year (~.916) and apply it to Booth's SHA the team lets in 31 more goals and he now has the third worst GA out of any goalie (right now Knox is 10th). By that same methodology, Kata Vilde lets in 23 and moves from 19th GA to 17th. So what does this mean? First off those ten more goals that Knox would have let in are HUGE, and probably represents anywhere from 3-6 games lost as a result. Second, it means that Knox Booth had way more of an impact on team success than Vilde did, while having a harder road to doing it. That's really the core of this article. Knox Booth was way more valuable to his team than Kata was.

I also have been keeping track of a graph of sv% compared with SHAA for every goalie performance over the year, which I'll put below. Take with the data what you will.

And the quality of shots Knox faced versus Vilde?

And shutouts are equivalent to GAA? So in your opinion, shutouts and wins have no place in goalie rankings?

Point A, the index doesn't give us shot quality so I can't use that and if there's a place somewhere that does that I'm missing I'd love for someone to point it out. In that case I would do a weighted average of shot quality and factor that in. 

Point B, in short yes. Less shots per game increases the likelihood of a shoutout. Here's a graph of SHAA and this season's shutout numbers. So yes, shutouts and wins aren't indicative of goalie skill and serve as a team stat. However, they can be used to determine a goalie's team contribution. Save percentage is also a flawed stat but it's the best we have.

Let me posit a hypothetical for you. Let's say we have a goalie with a .950 sv%. That's ABSURDLY good. But if that goalie faces 60 shots a game the odds say that they'll let in 3 goals a game and probably have very few shutouts, and if the team around them is garbage they won't have that many wins either.