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grok · 01-26-2021, 11:59 PM

The Watchlist: Game 3 and 4 Storylines

Good evening! The Watchlist is back to our regularly scheduled programming, giving you an easy digest of our S57 Challenge Cup Finals. We took a break after Game 3, so Games 3 and 4 are both below (plus a little sneaker about why we took off).

Match point Chicago as they take two at home

In two games that could not be any more different, Chicago completes their 3-4 homestand with as many wins in the pocket. This forces match point at Hamilton’s barn in Game 5, a must-win for the Steelhawks. Chicago looks to keep the pressure on and the momentum rolling for a quick finish to the series.

Game 3 was the Chicago-Hamilton experience we have come to know and love, but dialed all the way up to 11. Truly a Mach 5 tornado of a game with 10 total goals, Chicago sealed the win with a late empty net goal for a 6-4 win at home. Martjin Westbroek stole the show for Chicago with two power play goals and an assist on the game, while Hugh Jazz and the Hamilton defense kept the Steelhawks in the game until the bitter end. If you’re a fan of high-scoring, heart-stopping offensive play, you need to watch this game.

Game 4 was from an entirely different universe. After 3 showstopping affairs averaging nearly 9 goals per game, Chicago and Hamilton both converted to a heavy defense-first style and forced a white-knuckle slugfest of an overtime thriller. Although the overtime period itself was relatively brief, ended by a game winning goal by Westbroek, the regulation game was as tense as tense can get. Over 70 shots on goal, 37 blocked shots on the game, a .978 performance from Soonika and a .928 performance from Jobin, Ryan Shepard taking a frankly unfathomable 28 faceoffs and winning 57% of them, and most of all only two minutes of 5 on 4 in the entire game. While it ends up a heartbreaker for Hamilton, they truly put in a gutwrenching performance outshooting Chicago 22 to 3 in the third period and converting only once. Hugh Jazz again tried to keep the team in it, but Westbroek’s overtime goal gave a third win to Chicago.

These two games tell us one important thing: these teams can both do it all. Game 3 was a no-defense slobberknocker of a game that, quite frankly, could have set a league record with a couple more lucky bounces. Game 4 was a pared back but vicious defensive struggle, in which Hamilton was still able to put over 40 shots on goal. These two teams are truly standard-bearers of the quality of SHL hockey, demonstrating these two unique styles back to back in the same building. No matter who wins, the SHL will have an incredibly talented and deserving representative holding the Challenge Cup through S58.

Westbroek heroics put him on collision course with Razov voters

Before the first game of playoffs, we reviewed some Razov candidates. Well, throw all that out the window because Westbroek just wants the damn trophy. Finally getting some power play time after two games of highly disciplined play, Westbroek potted two power play goals in Game 3. He supported those goals with a third even strength goal in Game 4. Westbroek now has 9 goals and 11 assists on the season, along with an overtime game winner in the finals--that’s nothing to sneeze at!

Westbroek will still have to battle through his own team to solidify himself as the top candidate. Soderberg leads him by a single assist, Connolly’s defensive stats make him a unique two-way option for voters, and Daniel Smeb’s name recognition might be enough despite his lesser goal total. Westbroek needs to go full Superman Mode in Game 5 (and beyond, if necessary) to secure a Razov trophy. As is, however, he’s started making himself a stellar case and set himself up for a shot at the gold.

Jazz emerges as a Steelhawks scorer

Hugh Jazz has had a solid but unexceptional run through the team’s first two playoff rounds. A handful of points playing in a slightly sheltered role, he was good enough and didn’t get in the team’s way for their whallopings on Atlanta and Winnipeg. Boy oh boy did that whole thing change in Game 3.

Jazz apparently decided to transform from Hugh, average winger, to Hugh, elite sniper over the course of one day. He put up a goal and an assist in the Steelhawks 6-4 loss in Game 3 and the team’s only goal in the overtime slugfest that was Game 4. Suddenly, Hugh Jazz looks like one of the premier goal scoring talents on the team, single-handedly sending a playoff game to overtime and piling into the team offense in a game where they needed to score as much as possible.

Chicago has seen a huge improvement by switching up their lines, giving an over performing second line anchored by the frankly mental Gunnar Soderberg an increased role and more ice time. This has paid dividends for the Syndicate in Games 2, 3, and 4. With players like Jazz emerging as offensive weapons, Hamilton may benefit from practicing increased offensive responsibilities for those players.

Special teams make all the difference in Syndicate Game 3 win

When a team only gets 5 power plays opportunities in an entire series, you gotta make them count when you can. Neither Hamilton nor Chicago are known as particularly gooney teams (at least not anymore, wink wink), so when they give you a chance on the 5 on 4 you better score. Neither team was doing a great job of power play scoring until Game 3, where Westbroek scored once on the 5 on 4, and once on the empty net during a late 5 on 3.

Both teams frankly need to do better on special teams. As we discussed in the Game 2 Watchlist, their top scoring players derive a large percentage of their production from the power play. Westbroek scoring on the power play while Hamilton’s Scarn and Morgan fail to capitalize could be all the difference in a critical match point game. If Hamilton can’t control the discipline and get the power play unit rolling, it could be disastrous as they return home for Game 5.

Momentum swings in low-scoring Game 4

If I gave you an over/under on the total goals in Game 4 at 4.5, you would slam the over. Not a question, not a discussion. You would. We’re talking about two teams that went 8, 7, 10 (!) all in a row. Two teams that would have made that under one time in the regular season. You certainly would not have said 3, and one was in overtime. Not a single person in this league saw a 1-1 grindfest happening in this playoff matchup. And yet, we so received.

Chicago’s Tibuk Soonika once again had some Even Number Magic and stopped an extraordinary 45 shots, including a damn near 23 straight in the third period. Chicago’s skaters threw themselves in front of another 20. A late second period goal put the pressure on the Steelhawks, and they went all out in the third. However, they just couldn’t make it happen.

I always say overtime is a crapshoot. If you make it to OT, anything can happen. Just thinking rhetorically, would you say the worst team in the league could never score the first goal against the best team in the league? It could happen! And that’s, frankly, the scariest goddamn sentence in the world. “It could happen!” A harbinger of utter unpredictability, caution and care thrown fully to the wind, and some damn exciting hockey. Chicago got it this time, but can anyone say it was destined to go that way? If they do, they’re liars who are lying to you. Fight them.

Steelhawks high shot totals, low conversion rate continue to frustrate

It’s a hard day to be a Steelhawks fan. Not because you’re down on the team, or the players, or coaching. It’s a hard day to be a Steelhawks fan because sometimes the puck luck doesn’t go your way. You shoot and shoot and shoot, and somehow they keep going on the pads, off the post, anywhere but in the net. High quality be damned, it just doesn’t work out for you.

The Steelhawks have crushed the Syndicate in scoring this entire series. Game 3 was the first time Chicago actually led on the SOG line, and Hamilton rightfully shellacked them within an inch of their lives in Game 4 for having the nerve to “play offense” for a change. But despite the high shooting, Hamilton still struggles to convert those shots into goals. We talked about expected goals and shot quality in the Game 2 Watchlist, and it all applies here again. Shot suppression should matter in these kinds of matchups. When conventional wisdom isn’t working, maybe it’s time to look outside the box. We have to imagine Hamilton’s coaches are desperately seeking some type of mold breaking, innovative offensive strategy to fix their conversion woes.

Syndicate face a unique challenge in Game 5: an away game

Home ice. It’s the only place Hamilton has won in this series. And looking back at the regular season performances, that might matter a lot. Both teams were 2-1 at home in their 3-3 regular season split. Hamilton looked their strongest playing at home. Chicago looked their strongest playing at home. It seems like home ice is actually a tremendous value between these two teams.

Hamilton is at a key juncture in the series. Obviously every game matters--saying any specific ordinal game is more important than the others is boogeyman hogwash. But when you get to match point, playing in front of a home crowd is a bit comforting. A bit nostalgic, even...normal. The Steelhawks need to take advantage of Game 5 to build momentum back into the Chicago stadium that did them dirty for Games 3 and 4. They must hope the home ice advantage will play in their favor.

Winnipeg gets a celestial rebrand

ICYMI--the SHL’s Winnipeg franchise rebranded to the Winnipeg Aurora today, ending over 50 seasons of the Jets branding. The new Aurora brand, paying homage to the Northern Lights readily visible from Maintoba, marks the close of a dynamic postseason for the franchise. Between this stunning new brand, the gorgeous blue and green uniforms, and a deep playoff run to inspire the locker room, the Aurora are well positioned to come out swinging and shock the league in S58.

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LordBirdman · 01-27-2021, 12:17 AM

Great recap for someone not watching the sims, thanks

DeletedAtUserRequest · 01-27-2021, 06:09 AM

Great work!

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