I promised, and I am delivering. Welcome to the S76 Week 0 article, where I look at the results of the preseason, at the TPE standings of the respective teams, and try to predict the season ahead. Join me in being apparently not as wrong as one could imagine!

Pacific Division

The division spawning the last two cup winners is, as always, here to be talked first. The big news for this division is the currently beginning downfall of the current core of Edmonton – the Blizzard has decided that they need a new, fresh start and have began rebuilding. That frees up a spot up in the guaranteed playoff spaces, a spot that would be terribly enjoyable for Calgary, if they are up to snatch it. Edmonton shedded a decent chunk of their TPE already, and are now floating just below where Calgary is, but unlike Calgary have minimal interest in actually winning games, leading to what I assume would be the little extra that should push Calgary over them even if the TPE (and other things, like the remnants of roster familiarity, something FHM actually does simulate) would suggest the fight to be reasonably close.

Other than that, not a lot of news out of our western-most friends, LAP is still the best roster in the league and after their dominating cup run predicting anything but 1st our of them sounds insane, SFP is in 3rd TPE wise, nowhere near the sort of fresh-outta-rebuild Calgaries, the fresh-in-rebuild Edmontons, or the mid-rebuild Seattles, so are basically guaranteed top 2, more likely than not a quick 2nd. Calgary and Edmonton are very similar to each other TPE wise, but the leftover experience of Edmonton’s roster will likely make them perform better than the young and inexperienced Calgary. That then leaves Seattle to repeat their bottom of the barrel experience, as they do fall below Montreal in TPE and aren’t likely going to gain much this season yet.

The preseason results sort of support that. LAP leads only losing 1 game, to SFP. SFP has bled a few more points, most peculiarly in OT to Montreal, but the strength of SFP’s schedule makes properly guessing their strenght a little hard as they played either extremely good teams (LAP 2x, TEX), or really bad ones (CHI, SEA, MTL, CGY). Calgary has seen a decent preseason putting themselves at 3rd, losing where expected, winning where expected or predictable, and even having a nice little sneak against WPG to get extra points there. EDM is 4th, but their schedule and wins prove a little confusing here – losing to Manhattan in a pretty decisive fashion, but then beating Buffalo and Atlanta, Edmonton will prove to be a tougher nut than expected, and I expect that to be an important advantage that let’s them grab 3rd over Calgary, likely following the expectation that they won’t outtank Chicago. Seattle’s schedule is pretty hard, but with no expectations anyway, them losing all 7 doesn’t mean a whole lot to change the prediction.

Prediction:

Central Division

Mr. Syndicate’s wild ride has proven fatal for the chances of Calgary to make it to playoffs last season, and this season, Central looks even harder to predict than last. Minnesota went through a managerial change, and has in result lost some of their personnel, but their TPE didn’t hurt for it much. NOLA is basically even with them TPE wise, and will be interested in sneaking away a position ahead of Minnesota again. Winnipeg has started to lose a bit of a spring in their step, but they are still going to be a threat thanks to the experience of their roster, and Texas is currently the 2nd best roster in the league, all within about 200 average TPE apart. Then there is Chicago, the lone little rebuilder that wouldn’t mind continuing to do well, unless it ruins their draft plans entirely.

The preseason suggests similar. Texas leads, based on GD, only losing 1 game (Winnipeg), even though overall their schedule was pretty weak (TOR 2x, once pushed to OT against them, CGY, 2x SEA). Winnipeg lost their only game to Calgary, with their schedule two notches harder than Texas‘, having to beat some Eastern hopefuls and Minnesota twice, but also getting pushed to OT by Montreal, showing that they might have good coaching, but sometimes the hands and the feet just lose out without the level of talent of someone like Texas. The other tie between Minnesota and NOLA is resolved for Minnesota by ROW, with Minnesota’s schedule a good mix of good, decent, and bad, their division record in preseason being 1-2. NOLA on the other side met up with mostly Eastern teams, and faired to expectations, splitting a 2 game series against BAP, beating MAN and TOR handily, but failing to best Buffalo or Tampa Bay.  Finally, Chicago only managed to win the mandatory ride against Seattle and then steal a point against Toronto in SO, so performance about as expected, which is not what we expected.

All in all, that leaves us with one position we could expect to be right on, Chicago is last. As we learned last season, that apparently isn’t nearly as much of a given as it should be, but let’s assume. Going by TPE here sounds like a trap that will lead to ignorance of trends and, more importantly, experience differences on rosters, but just how significant those are is not exactly easy to guess. The only thing left then, is to lean on the preseason standings, as in my opinion, they do mirror the expectations of the outcome fairly nicely, and therefore without any extra work, I am just going to copy them down to a T.

Prediction:

Atlantic Division

Home sweet home, except not really because it makes me sad. Last season, PHI won the division ahead of Baltimore, with Atlanta in 3rd, Tampa in 4th and Manhattan last. This season...strengthens the expectations that the order changes, yet with the stubborness of this division, god knows what actually happens. PHI and BAP are the 4th and 5th best rosters TPE wise respectively, and are by a bit the strongest roster out East. Atlanta sits at 14, the last team between the TPE jump of mid-table to rebuild team, and Manhattan sits at 15, as the theoretically strongest rebuild team right now. The difference between ATL and MAN still is about the same TPE difference that covers the top 4 of Central, so nothing too close, and our last participant, Tampa Bay, is about as far ahead of Atlanta as Atlanta is ahead of Manhattan. Yet, this division has proven that in order to be ahead of someone, pure TPE isn’t always the answer, and Atlanta keeps denying Tampa their spot in 3rd of the division, while PHI and BAP are as close as ever in the battle for 1st. What do we think about that.

The preseason offers an answer...not. 3 points separate the top 4, PHI leading at 10 losing to LAP and of all teams, Montreal, but beating a fair share of decent competition leading to an expected result for PHI. BAP is a point behind at 9, losing in OT to NOLA, to Tampa and to Hamilton, again, teams that you would expect to be capable of beating you and nothing super surprising overall. Atlanta is 3rd, 8 points for them, losing to Winnipeg, New England and Edmonton, but here is an interesting problem where the rest of their games are teams a definite notch below them (MAN, SEA 2x, CGY), leading one to not have a full picture of how strong Atlanta truly is, and if they can challenge up top without winning regular games against contenders. Tampa is 4th, at 7 points, losing to LAP, NEW, WPG in OT and PHI, but in the process beating BAP, NOLA and MIN, meaning that the expectation we have of Tampa is that they can get points against these tougher opponents. Manhattan is a distant 5th with only two wins to their name (EDM, CHI), and while they played a decent few close games with tough opponents, they definitely still seem a notch behind the rest of the division to be clearly considered competition.

So, what do you predict here. The obvious prediction is to follow last season’s, and you would probably have a decent chance at being right – but this division has been shaking for a change for a bit, and I am not sure it won’t happen. The expectation is obvious, PHI and BAP fight for 1st, ATL and TBB fight for 3rd, Manhattan tries to play spoiler and hopes they can bounce high enough to sneak into that fight, but likely won’t. To split the hairs here, I think leaning on the preseason performance works for one of these pairs, but ATL doesn’t have a good enough sample to be truly sure. So, I am going to do what I suggested before, the obvious prediction where if Tampa or Baltimore want to prove me wrong, they are more than welcome to.

Prediction:

North East Division

The fight for the win here is ruthless, agressive and impossible to reliably predict. And then you have Toronto, trying their damnest to make it a 4-way. NEW, HAM, BUF and TOR are all pretty close TPE wise (8th, 10th, 12th and 13th), with Montreal the obvious dud after winning just one game the entire last season. The gap between 8 and 13 is about 150 average TPE, meaning that the fight for the top here is pretty darn close – Toronto gained a massive influx of TPE after trading in the offseason, and despite them not being even close last season, this season they are likely to be much more threatning. That however, also makes it so we have very little frame of reference for how good or bad they will actually be, and new, young rosters tend to have some teething issues on the back of the players not being comfortable with each other yet. When it comes to TPE, the prediction is pretty hard.

How did they fare in the preseason then? Well, New England leads being undefeated over 7 games, perfect 14 points. Their schedule includes some weaker teams, some decent ones, and a fair few games with BUF and HAM, meaning that despite maybe not having the hardest schedule, it’s not exactly something to scoff at. The rest, not so great, with Hamilton only winning 4 (lost to BAP, PHI, NEW, won over EDM, CHI 2x, BAP), but still did way better than Buffalo. Buffalo only won 1 game (Manhattan), faced with an otherwise pretty good collection of opponents (LAP, NEW 2x, BAP, EDM, NOLA), but it has to be said they failed to come up with lines throughout the preseason, likely limiting their true potential a bit, which will prove to be a bit of a problem at getting an accurate read about them. I assume they could’ve won at least some of these games, if that would have been the case. As for the other two, the new hopefuls in Toronto haven’t fared a ton better – beating Montreal, CHI in SO and losing to TEX in OT, but with the rest of their schedule, maybe expected (LAP, TEX again, MIN, NOLA). Montreal surprised a little with scoring the same 2 wins and an OT point (SFP in OT, PHI, lost to WPG in OT), yet losing pretty convincingly to some other of these rosters proves that MTL is volatile, but dangerous enough to potentionally upset, if not very consistently.

Prediction here is interesting. NEW struggled to open last season but eventually got away well enough to win, to the eternal annoyance of HAM, and BUF, while a bit behind, was still right there at everybody’s heels. Now Toronto enters the fray, and with the TPE, they might have a shot, but at this point, it’s fantastically hard to be completely sure about what happens here. As per usual, the last team in the division is pretty set in Montreal, and the rest is up for interpretation. Even assuming NEW confirms their form and stays 1st, without a proper read on Buffalo because of the line issue, you won’t ever by truly sure about your own idea. With that said, the safe way is still the way to go for me here.

Prediction:

With that, let’s actually continue further. Because divisional standings aren’t all that is important for the playoffs, as conferences also mean things for playoff series thanks to the wildcards, and for some teams, missing playoffs also means the sweet, sweet reward of a lottery pick.

Western Conference

Well, here is the thing. There are a few teams that are virtually safe, and just having TPE is enough for them to likely make it through, but thanks to the Central, at least one of the Wildcard spots will be occupied by a pretty darn good team. LAP, SFP, and in my prediction I assume also TEX and WPG should be safe enough to be there just to wait for their opponents, leaving the rest to squabble over. Now, the obvious needs to be said – the WC1 will be likely the loser of the NOLA/MIN fight. The prediction above clearly dictates that if that is the case, our western WC1 is NOLA. With that figured out, is the WC2 a result of the fight between Calgary and Edmonton, or is it Chicago? Seattle is likely not going to be fighting for the spot, and one of Calgary and Edmonton is guaranteed a spot as they will grab the 3rd spot out of Pacific, but in my eyes, Chicago is simply too weak that unless they can reconfirm their form from last season. Now, the important thing to realize is also, who wins the West and becomes the opponent to the WC2 spot. That is a bit harder, as the Western heavyweights fight between Texas, Los Angeles and San Francisco (the 1st, 2nd and 3rd best rosters TPE wise) will likely net us a President’s trophy winner as well. I think however, with the way a certain team walked through the playoffs as if it was nothing, with their brutal win streak to end the season, and with not much changes to their roster, LAP is likely a very obvious pick for all of these accolades, and the one I would go with. With that figured out:

P1 vs. WC2
C1 vs. WC1
P2 vs. P3
C2 vs. C3

Eastern Conference

East has some easy parts to figure out. Between the divisions having a strong top 4 and a clear bottom team, the playoff 8 is pretty obvious to point out – it’s everyone but Manhattan and Montreal. With the TPE lead of PHI/BAP over the rest of the east, the leader of the East is also pretty easy to find out – according to the prediction of PHI winning Atlantic, they would win the conference as well. Now, that only leaves one question: is WC1 the loser of the Atlantic 4-way, or the North East 4-way? Atlantic has better teams up top, but also is worse at the bottom, while North East seems very equal all the way through, which might obviously mean that better team does better and wins more, but also might not? Realistically though, the expected WC1 to me is the loser of the North East 4-way, which would settle East like this:

A1 vs. WC2
NE1 vs. WC1
A2 vs. A3
NE2 vs. NE3

With that, this article is done. See ya next week? (surely, right).

Manhattan Rage | General Manager

thanks Sulovilen for the sig!
D | Great Falls Grizzlies | Player Page | Update Page


S46 | Andrej Doskocil | Old-school defenseman | Peak 1579 TPE | Retired
Drafted 32nd overall to the Halifax Raiders in S45 SMJHL Draft
S45|50 GP 1G/10A/11P 92 hits 48 SBs
S46|50 GP 2G/24A/26P 115 hits 57 SBs
S47|42 GP 6G/12A/18P 76 hits 48 SBs
Traded to Detroit Falcons
S47|8 GP 0G/2A/2P 15 hits 7 SBs
Drafted 8th overall to the Manhattan Rage in S46 SHL Draft
S48|50 GP 2G/7A/9P 93 hits 42 SBs
S49|50 GP 3G/12A/15P 97 hits 66 SBs
S50|50 GP 3G/10A/13P 110 hits 70 SBs
S51|50 GP 1G/17A/18P 146 hits 48 SBs
S52|50 GP 2G/20A/22P 118 hits 56 SBs
Won Challenge Cup with Manhattan Rage
S53|50 GP 3G/15A/18P 286 hits 110 SBs
S54|50 GP 3G/12A/15P 303 hits 103 SBs
S55|50 GP 6G/21A/27P 86 hits 117 SBs
S56|50 GP 7G/24A/31P 88 hits 115 SBs
S57|66 GP 8G/23A/31P 110 hits 140 SBs
S58|66 GP 5G/11A/16P 111 hits 204 SBs
S59|66 GP 6G/13A/19P 99 hits 307 SBs
Total SMJHL RS - 150 GP 9G/46A/55P 298 hits 160 SBs
Total SHL RS - 648 GP 49G/185A/234P 1647 hits 1378 SBs
Total SHL playoffs - 68 GP 5G/25A/30P 147 hits 118 SBs



S61 | Archangelo Scaradog Jr. | Defenseman | 1240 TPE

Drafted 17th overall to the Newfoundland Berserkers in S60 SMJHL Draft
Traded to Maine Timber
Drafted 30th overall to the Manhattan Rage


S72 | Arnošt Hlemýžď | Defenseman | 155 TPE

you underestimate the chicago superstar of inactive forever

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