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TheOPSquid · 04-25-2024, 04:07 PM

The Quebec City Citadelles are currently crushing the league again this season, despite taking some big losses over the past offseason due to the expansion draft and graduating players, they bounced back and are on pace to win the regular season again. Leading the league in goals for with 195, while being second in goals against with only 112, the +83 goal differential is the best in the league by a margin of 19. One of the hardest arenas for teams to play against, the Citadelles have a stunning record of 17-3-1 at home and an equally impressive away record of 16-6-0. The Citadelles have an impeccable draft record and have 8 active Season 74 players on the roster with all 8 of them hitting 425 TPE. 3 of their Season 75 players have maxed at 425 already with two of their Season 76 players hitting their 350 TPE cap. A crazy 13 of their 17 players have hit their TPE caps for the season and the roster is primed for another deep run.

We will first go over their roster and see who is playing where before going over what I believe will happen in the playoffs this season and my reasoning for it.

Forwards:

Froya Solberg leads the top line for the Owls. The 5'9 center had a season to remember last season, tallying 127 points and 56 goals. Picking up multiple awards last season, she grabbed the Jared Hanson Trophy, Raymond Lindsay Trophy, Roberto Martucci Trophy, Alex Light Trophy, and was on the 1st All Star Team. Adding on her second consecutive Gold medal with Team Norden, the 1st overall pick by Calgary looks to lead the team to the Four Star Cup in her final SMJHL season.

Sonja Solberg is a playmaking winger that is proficient in the offensive and defensive zone. Tallying her first 100 point season last year, her 66 assists helped out Quebec in all areas of the ice. Having a positive giveaway to takeaway ratio this season while racking up blocked shots, Sonja has been a mainstay on the penalty kill and power play for the Owls her entire time with them. Picking up her second consecutive Gold Medal with Team Norden in the World Juniors this last tournament, the Season 75 1st Team All Star is looking to cap off her SMJHL career with a Four Star Cup with her sister.

Celeste Desjardins had the greatest rookie season the SMJHL has ever seen, putting up 87 points in 66 games. The offensive sniper may be allergic to the defensive zone, but boy do they make up for it in the offensive zone. Being one of the biggest offensive weapons on the Quebec power play, their 132 goals in 241 games is the reason for their success. Able to score from all over the ice and produce with any linemate, Desjardins had a career high of 96 points last season and is on pace to crack the 30 goal mark yet again. Winning the Esa Anrikkanen for Best Rookie and making the Rookie All Star Team, the Citadelles sniper was drafted 2nd overall to Manhattan and will make their SHL debut next season.

Johnny Patey V2 is probably the most versatile player on the roster for Quebec City. Being drafted as a defender, he spent his rookie season racking up points and finishing with a solid 37 points before switching to right wing the following season and tallying another 37 point campaign. Having a breakout season with 72 points last season on yet another position; left wing, Patey V2 is back on the second line left wing spot this season and is lining up to possibly have another 37 point season in his final SMJHL season. Playing in all situations in all positions over the past 4 seasons, Johnny has been on the spot in big moments for Quebec and is going to finish out his SMJHL career strong.

Wyatt King is a left-shot center and the lone season 75 forward from the Citadelles. Playing for the St. Louis Scarecrows in his first two seasons, Quebec has been able to help him smash his career highs in virtually every stat. With 19 goals and 25 assists so far, his 44 points have already crushed his career highs of 14 goals, 14 assists and 28 points. Rocking a faceoff percentage of 58.7%, his ability in the dot gets better each season. With over a point per game on the third line, depth scoring has been a huge contribution to the Citadelles success so far.

Scape Goat is in the midst of their first season in the SMJHL after being in free agency all of last season. Taking their talents to Quebec has yielded them some great results so far, tallying over a point per game with 15 goals and 30 assists in just 43 games. Playing on the third line for the Citadelles with King and Skovgaard, the right wing playmaker uses their speed to either set up their teammates or walk into the slot and wrist it by the tendy.

Anna Skovgaard was the first overall pick in Season 75 for the Citadelles, after being picked up for a short stint on waivers in the end of Season 74. Tallying 65 points in 66 games playing center last season, Skovgaard is on pace to beat that this year as she already has 51 points in 43 games, all while playing on the third line. Skovgaard was nominated for the Esa Anrikkanen for rookie of the year, and was honoured by being placed on the Rookie All Star Team. Taking a step forward this season, Skovgaard is an important and versatile forward for Quebec City.

3WW Wingmate-Roc is an offensive leaning forward for the Citadelles and has been centering the second line so far this season. The 6'1 winger spends a ton of time on the penalty kill this season, averaging 2:43 on the kill per game. Scoring 20 goals this season, they are looking to double their rookie season output of 11 goals last season.

Nor Ge is in the midst of their rookie season at the moment, having a solid season with 29 points in 43 games. With a positive plus minus of 8 to go along with 91 hits, the physical forward does not shy away from the physical side of the game and is willing to forecheck hard in order to earn their team a scoring chance.

Defenders:

Abdi Smokes is a solid defender that is wrapping up their junior career at the end of Season 76. The Monarchs prospect has never been an offensive powerhouse but is one of the best shutdown defenders in the league for the Citadelles. Amassing 125 takeaways in their career so far as well as 328 blocked shots, Smokes relies on their stellar positioning rather than physical play to break up offensive plays. Locking teams down on the second defensive pair, Abdi Smokes is a great defender that is a big part of the team's penalty kill.

Juan Tymer is one half of Quebec's first pair Latvian duo. A great two-way defender, the Winnipeg Aurora's 8th overall pick has 142 points in 241 games and is coming off a 56 point season. Putting up a solid Corsi For % over the past 3 seasons of over 56.5+, Juan Tymer has been great at both ends of the ice. He has been able to light up whatever team he faces while not sacrificing the defensive side of his game. Putting up 179 takeaways while only giving the puck away 41 times in his career shows a wild ability of not wasting possessions for the team. Tymer is in his final season for the Citadelles and is wearing the A this season.

Leo Roze may be the most underrated defender in the league and makes up the second half of Quebec's Latvian duo. Not a huge point scoring defender, the 6'6 defender is going to hit over 600 career blocks this season and currently sits at 591 in the past 4 seasons. Putting up a Corsi For % of 57+ in his past 3 seasons and a Fenwick For % of 57.9+ in the same seasons, the ice is always tilted in favour of Roze when he is on the ice. Averaging 2:44 on the penalty kill per game, Leo Roze is one of the most defensively sound defenders in the league. Roze won the Alexis Metzler for best defensive defender and was on the Defensive All Star Team in Season 74. He will be relied on heavily for the Citadelles in his final season's playoff run.

Bog Damsel came over from the St. Louis Scarecrows in a trade in Season 74, and has been a big help for the Citadelles ever since. With a fighting record of 7-4, Bog Damsel has cracked opponents teeth and forces opponents to think twice before they lay a hit on a Quebec player. Switching from Right Defense to Center then back to Right Defense, Bog Damsel is currently rocking with Frederik Gronlund on the third pair this season. Putting up 23 points so far for the Owls, Damsel has been great on offense and defense. Most importantly, Damsel is 2-0 in fights this season and racked up 110 blocks already. Bog Damsel is entering their final season in the SMJHL before graduating to the Toronto North Stars next season.

Supah Dupah is another big part of the Quebec defensive core both figuratively and literally. The 6'6 defender is great on both sides of the ice and is in the midst of his second season with 30+ points from the back end. Starting off on the left wing in Season 74, Supah is now in his third season with the Citadelles and playing on the second defense pair with Abdi Smokes. Putting up a 61.6% Corsi For so far this season and his 64.2% Fenwick For, lead all defenders on the Citadelles. Putting up 272 blocks in 2 and a half seasons so far, Supah Dupah has spent time on both the Penalty Kill and Power Play and has been slotted in on the first unit a ton this season. With the graduation of the majority of the defensive core at the end of this season, Supah Dupah is primed to take the reigns with this next defender.

Fredrik Gronlund is a 6'11 giant on the back end that plays a great two-way game. With 26 points in 43 games this season, Gronlund is relied on at 5 on 5, the penalty kill, and the power play. Playing on the third defensive pair with Bog Damsel, Gronlund is at just above a point every two games which is a more than respectable number for his time on ice. Gronlund has 1 more season after this one and will be looking to help the aging core of the Citadelles win it all this season before they take a step back next season.

Goaltenders:

Song Ju-gong is currently in his third full season in the SMJHL and has one more to go after this one. After being picked up for a 3 game stint on waivers in the final few games of season 73 where he went 3-0 with a .912 save percentage, Quebec drafted him 7th overall in the following draft. Arguably the best goaltender in the SMJHL since his debut, Ju-gong has put up a record of 95-19-9 so far and a career average save percentage of .910. With a sub 2.60 Goals Against Average, Ju-gong has single digit losses in each of his past three seasons while posting 30+ wins. Song Ju-gong will no doubt be one of the biggest contributors to the success of this core and has been an absolute brick wall for his junior career so far. Song Ju-gong will be backstopping the team as they go on their playoff run this season.

Yerik Akmetzhanov was a free agency pick up this past offseason and is currently 8-1 for the Citadelles. Putting up a .935 save percentage and a sub 2 Goals Against Average, the Citadelles backup goaltender only played 32 games prior to his stint in Quebec. Playing 32 games in Season 73 for the Nevada Battleborn, Akmetzhanov has played great in his limited role this season.

Now on for the big question, will QCC win the cup this year?

The Quebec City Citadelles have become synonymous with success and winning over the past few seasons. With Froya and Sonja Solberg leading the way on offense, this could be another season where we see the dynamic duo lead Quebec City on a deep playoff run. At this point in the article I will look through the past 15 seasons and comment on some trends for each team that has won the cup and will determine what makes a champion before seeing if Quebec ticks the boxes.

Quebec is currently on pace for 102 points this season and are racing towards another Laurifer Trophy for the Best Regular Season Record. Quebec has been pretty unlucky the past two seasons in the playoffs, running into the eventual champions in both runs, losing in 6 games to the Colorado Raptors who went on to win the Four Star Cup in Season 75, and losing in 6 games to the Detroit Falcons in round 3 of Season 74 before Detroit won the cup in that season. After looking at the past 15 seasons worth of data (team records, scoring leaders, playoff success, and the rosters of the top teams in each season), Quebec's luck is actually worse than what the past two seasons have shown. (I stopped at 15 seasons due to just too much numbers as I track it all by hand and idk how to use a scraper)

Do regular season results mean playoff success?

Absolutely. Over the past 15 seasons the teams that finished top 3 in the league have won the cup 13 times. There has been only two times a team that finished outside the top 3 have won the cup. In Season 69, Quebec City won as the 6th seed with 83 points over Detroit who finished first in the league with 98 points. The only other time was two seasons earlier in Season 67 when the Maine Timber won the league as the 4th seed with 85 points against the Citadelles who finished first with 90 points. In the past 15 seasons the Laurifer Trophy winner has won the cup 7 times and appeared in the finals 11 times. Quebec and Vancouver are the only teams that have finished first in the league over the past 15 seasons and not made the finals. Quebec in Seasons 75 and 74 with third round appearances and Vancouver in Seasons 73 and 62 with third round appearances as well.

Posting a record of 51-12-3 last season and a record of 48-12-6 in Season 74, the 105 point and 102 point campaigns by the club are the most points a team has finished with since Season 71's Maine Timber finished with 107 points. Looking back through the past 10 seasons, only 3 teams have eclipsed the 107 point marks and that was the Maine Timber with 107 in Season 71, the Detroit Falcons with 109 in Season 68, and Detroit again in Season 65 with 120 points. In the past 15 seasons, the 9 teams that have finished with 102+ points and won the league (1 season a team finished with 103 points but finished second in the league) 7 of them have won the Four Star cup in that season, the two times they haven't won the league is Quebec these past 2 seasons.

Every team that has finished first in the league(in the past 15 seasons) in back to back seasons has won the cup in one of those two seasons. Maine finished first in Seasons 70-72 and won the cup in Season 71, Detroit finished first in Seasons 68-69 and won the cup in Season 68, Newfoundland finished first in Seasons 63-64 and won the cup both times, and Vancouver finished first in Seasons 61-62 and won the cup in Season 61. Maine is also the only team to win the Laurifer Trophy in 3 consecutive seasons and they captured the cup in their second season. In the case of Quebec, Season 74 had an added element of randomness with the introduction of 4th lines and a full BOT line for each team after the drafts had already been concluded, resulting in a scramble for active players and players playing out of position.

Does a higher scoring roster result in more success?

In most cases yes it does. The way I measured it was using the top 10 point scorers for every season and seeing how many the team that won the cup had on their roster. One of the biggest strengths of the Season 75 Quebec team was that they had 4 of the top 5 scoring players on their team, the only time something similar happened was Newfoundland in Season 63 where they had 4 of the top 6 scorers in the league or Nevada in Season 71 where the top 3 point scorers were on the same team, but they didn't finish first in the league.

If you open up the stats a bit more to the top 10 in scoring you get a few more results with 4 teams having 4 or more top 10 point scorers rostered at the same time. The Season 75 Quebec City Citadelles(1,2,4,5 point scorers), the Maine Timber in Season 70 (3,4,9,10), the Detroit Falcons in Season 68 (2,4,6,9), and the Newfoundland Berserkers in Season 63 (1,2,5,6,8). Nefoundland and Detroit won the cup both of those seasons, but Quebec and Maine did not.

There are only 4 teams that have won the Four Star Cup in the past 15 seasons that have not had a top 10 point scorer on their team: the Season 72 St. Louis Scarecrows, the Season 70 Newfoundland Berserkers, the Season 69 Quebec City Citadelles, and the Season 66 Nevada Battleborn. The other 11 times teams had 1 or more top 10 point scorers on their squad when they won the Four Star Cup, with teams averaging 2 top 10 point scorers when they win the cup.

What does this mean?

So now we have established a couple trends that have happened over the past 15 seasons for each Four Star Cup Winner that Quebec has been an exception to:
- If they won the Laurifer trophy in consecutive Seasons they have won the cup in one of those seasons.
- They are more likely to win the cup if they have 2 or more top 10 point scorers in their lineup. But at minimum 1 top 10 point scorer increases their odds.
- Teams that have finished with 102+ points are more likely to win the cup in that season.
- The only time a team has finished first in the league in three consecutive seasons they won the cup once.

BUT it is not over yet.

This season they are on pace to hit all 4 of these marks again:
- Currently on pace to win the Laurifer Trophy
- Currently on pace to hit 102+ points with a 103 point pace
- Will have Froya Solberg finish top 10 in points guaranteed, with the possibility of 3 more pushing to the top 10.
- On pace to win their third consecutive Laurifer Trophy.

With this squad of players slowly coming to the conclusion of their SMJHL careers together before 9 of them graduate to the SHL next season, I predict that this is the season that Quebec City gets it done. It would be a storybook ending for the Citadelles if they pull it off this season, graduating their most recent core by winning the best award they can get in the SMJHL, the Four Star Cup.

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