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Beaver · 11-18-2018, 10:14 PM

Code:
2009 words

Uh yeah oops I meant to post this Friday night then got distracted so everything in here is like 2 sims out of date so hopefully the result of those sims have borne out what follows.

It's that time of season again when people are looking to upgrade their fantasy teams for the back half, hopefully grabbing a riser that'll lead them to TPE. I recently was one of those people and now that I've submitted my swap I'm here to share with the league at large the players I was looking at. For this I'm looking at two categories of players, surprises and underperformers. Surprises are players that were not expected to do well (low ownership rate) but have put up quite a few points in the first half of the season and, crucially, look to be able to sustain those numbers over the back half of the season. That means no players shooting 35%. Underperformers are players that I expect to do much better over the second half of the season than they did in the first half. Often these players will have relatively high ownership rates but are prime candidates to be dropped by hasty fantasy owners only to be scooped up by you, a fantasy player of great intellect and culture. These players are characterized by comparatively few fantasy points considering their context (linemates, time on ice, special teams) usually due to a low shooting percentage, a teammate's low shooting percentage, or a low team power play percentage. These are numbers that tend to have a lot of variation in small samples and therefore have a good shot at regressing upward.

Surprises
Brady McIntyre - D

Owned in 1/17 groups

Drafted in exactly 0 groups, McIntyre has had a hot start to the season as he HAS ALWAYS BEEN ON THE EDMONTON BLIZZARD AND NEVER PLAYED FOR SEATTLE. With 3 goals, 25 assists, 10 hits, 37 shots, and 4 blocked shots in 26 games he currently sits in 13th place in Fantasy Points per game and 5th amongst defensemen. McIntyre is shooting 8.11% while his 5v5 defensive partner, Ensio Kalju, is still searching for his first goal so his hot start appears to be sustainable and considering McIntyre only has 2 power play points in 56 minutes it could be argued that he has underachieved thus far.

Mia Landvik - D

Owned in 3/17 groups

The Wolfpack are not off to a great start this season but that is absolutely fantastic for fantasy defenders given the value of hits and blocked shots. Landvik sits just behind McIntyre in Fantasy Points per game with 4 goals, 14 assists, 90 hits, 45 shots, and 37 blocked shots in 26 games. Landvik is also shooting 8.89% which is likely a bit of an underachievement and her defensive partner at both 5v5 and the power play, Kristaps Ball, is shooting a reasonable 11.11%. New England's power play has been about league average so Mia's 5 points and 25 shots there are what we should expect from the second half as well and New England is only 5th-worst is shots allowed so those blocked shots are likely to continue, as well.

Bobby Watson - F Chiefs

Owned in 3/17 groups

Another player that's put up a good fantasy score with a shooting percentage in the 8s, Watson currently sits 25th in Fantasy Points per game and 13th amongst forwards. In his 26 games he's put up 9 goals, 12 assists, 63 hits, 112 (!!) shots, and 7 blocked shots with an 8.04% shooting percentage. Watson has fit in very nicely on Terrance Nova's wing as he's currently 8th in the league in shots. With Nova also shooting relatively low, 8.25%, the tandem looks poised to have an even better second half and considering Nova is owned in every fantasy group Watson is your way in. His 7.69% shooting percentage on the power play is also very likely to improve and with a good-earning rookie, Muhammed McLovin, on the other wing there is a lot of upside here.

Kelly Rivet - F pride

Owned in 1/17 groups

The swan song for a franchise legend, Rivet is getting all the ice time in San Francisco as well as all the points. Currently sitting at 22nd in Fantasy Points per game and 12th amongst forwards, Rivet is off to a fantastic start. Honestly, this one is a mixed bag in terms of upside and I almost didn't include him. He has 12 goals, 16 assists, 29 hits, 81 shots, and 12 blocked shots in 27 games played while shooting 14.81%. Normally a shooting percentage that high would be a disqualifier but even if you take away 4 goals, Rivet would still be 24th amongst forwards - a starter in our 8-team groups. Also a major factor in including Rivet is playing on a line centered by LeShaun King, a TPE whore who has been rapidly improving this season and on the power play with both King and Jack Tanner who has an incredibly disappointing and unsustainably low 1 goal on 29 shots with the man advantage. With San Francisco sitting a bit below league average on the power play those extra points should cancel out the shooting percentage and considering San Francisco is allowing the most shots per game in the league, expect those hits and blocked shots to continue.

Honorable Mentions:
Spitfire - D Jets

Owned in 3/17 groups
2 goals, 17 assists, 37 hits, 40 shots, 45 blocked shots, 5.00% shooting percentage.

Dick Skillstedt - F Steelhawks

Owned in 1/17 groups
5 goals, 13 assists, 70 hits, 99 shots, 3 blocked shots, 5.05% shooting percentage.

Zach Evans - F Jets

Owned in 1/17 groups (??)
8 goals, 20 assists, 11 hits, 90 shots, 8 blocked shots, 8.89% shooting percentage.

Reginald MacIntyre - D Rage

Owned in 2/17 groups
1 goal, 10 assists, 65 hits, 46 shots, 45 blocked shots, 2.17% shooting percentage.

Shoyu Kikkoman - D Rage

Owned in 4/17 groups
5 goals, 11 assists, 40 hits, 48 shots, 48 blocked shots, 10.42% shooting percentage.

Dieter Dominique - F Wolfpack

Owned in 1/17 groups
10 goals, 12 assists, 5 hits, 121 shots, 5 blocked shots, 8.26% shooting percentage.

Svatoslav Bodnar - D Riot

Owned in 1/17 groups
2 goals, 14 assists, 77 hits, 18 shots, 36 blocked shots, 11.11% shooting percentage.

Bob Bergen - D Stars

Owned in 3/17 groups
4 goals, 12 assists, 36 hits, 50 shots, 40 blocked shots, 8.00% shooting percentage.

Liam O'Callaghan - D Renegades

Owned in 3/17 groups
7 goals, 14 assists, 63 hits, 41 shots, 30 blocked shots, 17.07% shooting percentage.

Underperformers
Charles Walker - D

Owned in 11/17 groups

What an absolute brutal start to the season for the Stampede coming off their first (?) playoff series win in franchise history but pretty much everywhere you look there are signs of unsustainably bad luck in Buffalo (though it is Buffalo...) and Walker is a prime example. With 1 goal, 9 assists, 66 hits, 50 shots and 31 blocked shots he has put up decent fantasy numbers but what really stands out is that 2.00% shooting percentage. That is absolutely coming up. Fantasy players in groups where he's not owned should scoop him up because once Buffalo gets going he's going to be rolling in the points. Not only is his shooting percentage low but the Stampede's power play rate is low and Walker's 0 goals on 18 shots is part of that so as those things return to normal and the young roster continues improving, Walker will make fantasy owners that dropped him regret it.

Ludwig Koch Schroder - D Platoon

Owned in 11/17 groups

The exact opposite of Buffalo, West Kendall is having absolutely no problems scoring - they're 2nd with 89 goals - but that's not true of the entire roster as Schroder has just 2 goals, 15 assists, 30 hits, 54 shots, and 35 blocked shots on the season to pair with a 3.70% shooting percentage. That shooting percentage coming up will bring in points for Schroder but one area that the Platoon have struggled is on the power play where they rank just 11th in the league, indeed Schroder has just 2 points with the man advantage despite 80 minutes there. Those two factors suggest improvement in the second half of the season for the defenseman who's already at 17 points.

Jon Ross - D Platoon

Owned in 8/17 groups

Honestly same entry as Schroder. Ross has 2 goals, 20 assists, 9 hits, 55 shots, and 40 blocked shots with a 3.64% shooting percentage. He's picked up 7 points in 75 minutes on the power play, however, so there's a bit less upside there maybe.

Roman Augustus - F Dragons

Owned in 9/17 groups

Bit surprised to see Augustus available in nearly half of our leagues as he's a proven fantasy performer playing top line and power play minutes for the Dragons so this may suggest that drafters have ditched him after a slow start. This decision could be to your advantage as he has 9 goals, 12 assists, 33 hits, 111 shots, and 4 blocked shots in his 26 games as well as a 8.11% shooting percentage and is under 5% on the power play. Those 111 shots are exactly what I love to see when picking up fantasy players midseason, that puts him 9th in the league. There's also some assist upside as everyone Augustus plays with at 5v5 or on the power play is 10% or lower shooting. Could be a feast in the second half of the season.

Honorable Mentions:
Zanarkand Abes - F Steelhawks

Owned in 6/17 groups
4 goals, 11 assists, 20 hits, 104 shots, 6 blocked shots, 3.85% shooting percentage.

Luke Atmey - F Stampede

Owned in 9/17 groups
5 goals, 9 assists, 72 hits, 89 shots, 5 blocked shots, 5.62% shooting percentage.

And also I lied, there's one more group that you should consider when making a fantasy swap: players that are playing great and are still somehow not owned in your group. Perhaps these players were dropped a week ago and have caught fire since then or maybe your groupmates are just lazy. Who knows. Jack Tanner was never picked up in my fantasy group last season and I barely edged out a couple players for TPE because of it. Could be any number of reasons but that's irrelevant. Go get them.

Go Grab These Guys, They're Putting Up A Lot Of Points But Are Somehow Still Available In Some Groups
Tor Tuck - D Blizzard

Owned in 11/17 groups
9 goals, 20 assists, 60 hits, 53 shots, 43 blocked shots, 16.98% shooting percentage. 7.212 Fantasy Points per game to date.
How is he available in 6 groups? Yeah he's going to regress a bit but right now he's #3 among defenseman in Fantasy Points per game and maybe he regresses to, like, 5th? Go get him.

Teddy Cuddles - F Blizzard

Owned in 11/17 groups (12/17 now since I just grabbed him)
11 goals, 15 assists, 71 hits, 117 shots, 4 blocked shots, 9.4% shooting percentage. 6.050 Fantasy Points per game to date.
Same thing. Maybe he regresses to like 10th-best forward. Maybe he keeps this up and stays 8th. Maybe he improves and winds up 5th. Win-win-win. Go get him.

Toivo Kosonen - D Panthers

Owned in 14/17 groups
3 goals, 17 assists, 47 hits, 52 shots, 44 blocked shots, 5.77% shooting percentage. 5.777 Fantasy Points per game to date.
Rock solid defenseman who's currently 7th in Fantasy Points per game and should finish in that same range. Go get him.

Zander Rhys - D Stars

Owned in 16/17 groups
3 goals, 19 assists, 57 hits, 57 shots, 37 blocked shots, 5.26% shooting percentage. 5.678 Fantasy Points per game to date.
If you're in Group 13 the current 9th-best defenseman and probable 5th-8th or so defenseman is available. Go get him.

Robert Phelps - F Steelhawks

Owned in 15/17 groups
9 goals, 16 assists, 40 hits, 102 shots, 7 blocked shots, 8.82% shooting percentage. 5.35 Fantasy Points per game to date.
If you're in Group 14 the current 14th-best forward and probable top-10 forward is available. Go get him.

King · 11-18-2018, 10:20 PM

That’s my SHL coach

(He’s in denial of being our coach)

***BadWolf*** · 11-18-2018, 10:22 PM

your the best! this is ganna help me. I mean im in last I can only go up... right?

Beaver · 11-18-2018, 10:56 PM

11-18-2018, 10:20 PMKing Wrote: That’s my SHL coach

(He’s in denial of being our coach)

no u

11-18-2018, 10:22 PMBadWolf Wrote: your the best! this is ganna help me. I mean im in last I can only go up... right?

Atmey for Cuddles looks like a great swap for you. If Walker rebounds like he should you may be up there competing for TPE.

King · 11-18-2018, 11:20 PM

11-18-2018, 10:56 PMBeaver Wrote:
11-18-2018, 10:20 PMKing Wrote: That’s my SHL coach

(He’s in denial of being our coach)
no u

Oh my god. you’re becoming @“luketd”

***BadWolf*** · 11-18-2018, 11:59 PM

11-18-2018, 10:56 PMBeaver Wrote:
11-18-2018, 10:20 PMKing Wrote: That’s my SHL coach

(He’s in denial of being our coach)
no u

11-18-2018, 10:22 PMBadWolf Wrote: your the best! this is ganna help me. I mean im in last I can only go up... right?
Atmey for Cuddles looks like a great swap for you. If Walker rebounds like he should you may be up there competing for TPE.

You da best beaves

ErM · 11-19-2018, 01:10 PM

11-18-2018, 10:14 PMBeaver Wrote: Tor Tuck - D
Owned in 11/17 groups
9 goals, 20 assists, 60 hits, 53 shots, 43 blocked shots, 16.98% shooting percentage. 7.212 Fantasy Points per game to date.
How is he available in 6 groups? Yeah he's going to regress a bit but right now he's #3 among defenseman in Fantasy Points per game and maybe he regresses to, like, 5th? Go get him.

Wow. I thought we were friends.

caltroit_red_flames · 11-19-2018, 02:44 PM

@Beaver wtf I've been on EDM my whole career. Friend Blast is the one that came home this season.

Beaver · 11-19-2018, 09:53 PM

11-19-2018, 02:44 PMcaltroit_red_flames Wrote: @Beaver wtf I've been on EDM my whole career. Friend Blast is the one that came home this season.

God damnit lmao, my bad. I guess this evens it out because I called blast you a couple months back.

Avakael · 11-20-2018, 07:14 AM

General point of reference- if anyone wants to make media stuff for fantasy, come chat to me. You'll be surprised what kind of data I keep.

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