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[FFMAN] Still trying to make a mock draft? Look no further! We used SCIENCE - Printable Version

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[FFMAN] Still trying to make a mock draft? Look no further! We used SCIENCE - Mediocre_Fred - 09-12-2020

[Double Draft Media - details at bottom]
Fred's Fantastically Mediocre Analytics News








S56 Draft Class Body Mass Index Analysis
And Perfect Mock Draft
Written by Mediocre_Fred
S56 Draft Class Body Mass Index Analysis


SHL got you down? Are you at a loss as to who to put in your mock draft? Or perhaps you are a GM and you can’t decide on who to pick and when?

Well this is the study for you! 



Our analytics team here at FFMAN have been working tirelessly for the past few hours in order to get this crucial information out to the public as quickly as we could. Our chief analyst thinks this data is so useful that you might likely be able to set up your mock draft without looking at anything else. Our team combed painstakingly through every players’ data and crunched all the numbers for you so that you won’t have to. That’s right, we have all the information you will need to nail that mock draft and/or select the best players for your team. Fred’s Fantastically Mediocre Analytics News is proud to present to you…


Body Mass Index in the Season 56 Draft Class: a Case Study


First things first, what is the Body Mass Index (BMI)? Well, according to the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, BMI is a measure of body fat based on height and weight that applies to adult men and women. And that is what we have here in the SHL, ladies and gentlemen. Adult Men and Adult Women. Now you may be asking yourself, “What does BMI have to do with SHL ranking?” Don’t worry, we’ll get to that.


Now onto the data. We will use this chart as a reference for the different levels of BMI: CHART.


[Image: gBbYtXz.png]


In Figure 1 we have a pie chart representing the number of players in the different categories of BMI. As seen in the reference chart, a “Normal” BMI is from 19 to 24. There are currently only 12 players in this range. Next is “Overweight”, which holds the majority of the Season 56 draft class at 66 players. “Overweight” is defined as having a BMI between 25 and 29. And finally we have “Obese”, which ranges from a BMI of 30 to 39. There are only 5 players from Season 56 that fit into that category.


Well what can we do with information? Nothing. At least not yet. Let’s take a look at the Season 53 draft class, which many believe is one of the strongest draft classes we’ve seen in recent times.


 [Image: ySmQl60.png]


In Figure 2, you can see right away that there is a little more variety within the Season 53 draft class. Unlike Season 56, this class has a player that is “Underweight” and a player that is “Extremely Obese”. We actually have fewer players in this class that are rated as “Normal” than we do in the upcoming S56 draft class, which is interesting. Still, though, the trend where the vast majority of players are in the “Overweight” category continues.


But this doesn’t really help us with ordering anything. We know that the majority of players from both classes are overweight. But how will things change if we take TPE into account? Figure 3 displays The max TPE a player has that falls into each of the BMI categories present in the Season 47 draft class. We chose to look at the S47 draft class because that is the oldest class that hasn’t started regressing yet; therefore, they should be a good representation of peak SHL performance levels.


 [Image: Vh7L8j1.png]


The “Overweight” category has the player with the highest TPE with Eko van Otter at 1986 TPE. The “Normal” category is close behind with the highest player, Corey Kennedy, having 1930 TPE. And finally we have “Obese” trailing behing with the max player, Esa Parmorg, having just 1831 TPE. We can apply this same analysis back to Season 53 draft class, but it likely won’t give us the same type of insight as this data gave us, as they are still a growing class and haven’t peaked yet. You can see the graph in Figure 4. 

[Image: 6xIsWEV.png]


Fittingly, “Underweight” has the lowest TPE at 180. “Obese” has the second lowest with the player Zoltan Topalo at 766 TPE. “Extremely Obese” and “Normal” are neck and neck with 900 being their max. Reid Sutherland tops the players of the “Overweight” category with a total of 942 TPE. The main thing you can take away from this chart is that the underweight players and the obese players don’t seem to be earning as much TPE as the Normal, Obese, and Extremely Obese players do.

Again, the Max TPE for each category doesn’t give us anything useful by itself. It is just an outlier, after all. Or is it? Figure 5 displays the average TPE for each BMI category for S47.

[Image: HHZqko0.png]

This time, “Normal” takes the top spot for S47 with an average TPE of 1484.5. Not too far behind with 1476 TPE average is “Overweight”. Way below with an average of 1347 TPE is “Obese”. With this new information in mind, our analytics team is starting to be able to create a way to rank the upcoming draftees.


In Figure 6, you can see that “Obese” is now the top. Figure 6 is the 

[Image: Slsj3yv.png]

average Total TPE per BMI label for all of the draft classes that are still playing in the SHL. It is very surprising that “Obese” is the on top, since all of the other charts showed it as one of the lowest in terms of average TPE. Next we have “Overweight” with 819 TPE, which is not very surprising. It has been on the top in most of the other charts we’ve looked at. “Extremely Obese” is surprisingly high, which indicates that, while there may not be a lot of extremely obese players in the league, the ones that exist are high TPE earners and likely a good pick.These are followed of course by “Normal”, and “Underweight”.Now that we have this information, we can begin to craft the perfect draft order. We will keep it to the first round for simplicity’s sake. We’ll be following these rules based on the information we learned above.

  1. As far as long time earners go, Normal BMI and Overweight BMI, in that order, seem to be the best. We learned this from looking at S47 Average TPE
  2. For short run earners, Obese and Overweight players are the best choices. We learned this from looking at S53
  3. Extremely Obese players are likely to be elite players in the mid run, but they might not last as long as some other BMI types
  4. Underweight players under perform
  5. If you want a safe bet, go for the Normal players. They might end up earning a lot of TPE, but worst case scenario they end up being average
  6. If you want a safe bet, go for the Normal players. They might end up earning a lot of TPE, but worst case scenario they end up being average



And now for our recommended picks

  1. Aleksander Kozlov - With a BMI of 26.3, Kozlov fits right into the middle of the Overweight category. The lack of Normal players made us choose an Overweight player first @FlappyGiraffe
  2. Teylora Petrov - BMI of 30.2 Right at the fringe of Obese. Looking like a good short term TPE earner, but could end up doing very well in the long run too @"Panda"
  3. Vladmir Petrov - BMI of 30.6 Same as above @Muford
  4. Sarah Burke - BMI of 26.3 puts them right in the middle of Overweight. Wolfpack will pick them up first as a potential short term TPE earner and then @Kyamprac
  5. Calvin Hobbes - BMI of 24.9. Wolfpack will grab them as a potential long time earner to help with the future @krazko
  6. Rock Strongo - BMI of 27.4 A solid Overweight choice @Leafs4ever
  7. Tanjiro Kamado - BMI of 30.8 puts them firmly in the Obese category. The Pride will hope for a good amount of TPE earned in the coming seasons from this player @Andy
  8. Jonas Kahnwald - BMI of 26.6. Another solid Overweight player @Festinator
  9. Knockedout Byovechkin - BMI of 25 means that they are just on the edge of being a normal weight player, but are technically overweight. We think that the Jets are going to leverage that weight and hope for a good long term TPE earner @ddrector
  10. Boris Petrov - BMI of 34.3 makes them a solid Obese player. @LimJahey
  11. Slava Petrov - BMI of 25 also makes them just barely Overweight. Will hopefully turn out to be a good TPE earner @ckroyal92
  12. Bane - BMI of 27.3. We like the name @Winter is Coming
  13. Xavier Doom - BMI of 28.2 - Another Overweight player with high TPE potential @JKortesi81
  14. Jonas Caspari - BMI of 32.2. Don’t let the low TPE fool you. We think this guy is going to get drafted first round and go on to earn a lot of TPE in their career @jakey.peach
  15. Vaseline Podcalzone - BMI of 24.4 makes them the highest TPE Normal player that hasn’t been drafted yet. A good pick for 15. @"bdu754"
  16. Evangelos  Giannopoulos - BMI of 25. Just barely Overweight. We predict good things from them @JSS
  17. Dee Centerman IV - BMI of 29.9. Right near the edge of Obese. A few more pounds and this guy could be a massive TPE earner down the road. @grok
  18. Sachimo Zoidberg - With a BMI of 25.9, this Overweight player is predicted to be the last pick of the first round. @Jala

    I hope you find this useful. Thank you for reading
    [Double Draft Media]
    [1584 words]
    [Graphs made by me]
    [Scripts for collecting and refining data made by me and can be found here: https://github.com/MediocreFred/shlscraper/blob/master/scrape.py and https://github.com/MediocreFred/shlscraper/blob/master/other_scripts/bmi_calculator.py]


RE: [FFMAN] Still trying to make a mock draft? Look no further! We used SCIENCE - Mediocre_Fred - 09-12-2020

Yes, I know I spelled some things wrong in the charts

RE: [FFMAN] Still trying to make a mock draft? Look no further! We used SCIENCE - Jala - 09-12-2020

Well thats a new take on it, but science never lies

RE: [FFMAN] Still trying to make a mock draft? Look no further! We used SCIENCE - Rangerjase - 09-12-2020

My mom says I’m just big boned and not obese. We measure on plates of macaroni we eat not by your fancy. BMI.

RE: [FFMAN] Still trying to make a mock draft? Look no further! We used SCIENCE - PremierBromanov - 09-12-2020

You got more right than i would have guessed

RE: [FFMAN] Still trying to make a mock draft? Look no further! We used SCIENCE - Mediocre_Fred - 09-13-2020

09-12-2020, 11:17 PMPremierBromanov Wrote: You got more right than i would have guessed
I fully expected to do better... The science was all there!