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***boom*** · 04-26-2020, 04:42 PM

[3436 words, ready for grading]

One of the things that I’ve noticed in this latest SHL draft class is that there are quite a few of young, active defensemen. There are currently thirteen defensemen around or above 250 TPE as of the latest update, and 22 defensemen above 200 TPE. I thought I’d take a look at each of them and see how they stack up against each other, try to rank them somehow. I’ll also take a look at each SHL team’s rosters and which teams might be looking to add defensemen. I’ll probably do a second feature on goalies in a later article, and maybe forwards as well - there’s a lot of them to sort through. It turns out the draft class seems to have separated itself into nicely tiered groups, making the lines easier to draw than I thought.

The Top Tier: Mikkel Asmus Sondergard, Joseph Fantobens, Matthew Sawful, Ryosuke Sato, Aumy Jr., PBJ Souppan, Jack Klompus

These are the top seven TPE earners in the class on defense by a decent margin. Sondergard, Fantobens, Aumy, and Klompus are recreates, while Sawful, Sato and Souppan are the first-gens to round out this group. Sondergard, the first overall pick in the last SMJHL draft, has played a physical two-way game so far this season for the Maine Timber, registering 12 points along with 52 hits and 65 blocked shots. At 287 TPE, he is leading the whole draft class in this regard, and with nearly $77 million in the bank as well as being a well-regarded recreate player, Mikkel Asmus Sondergard is pretty clearly the best defenseman in this class. After him, this group gets a little murkier. Joseph Fantobens has played pretty well for Detroit, putting up 10 points for a strong Falcons side and being a part of their historic season. He’s responsible with the puck too with 19 takeaways to 12 giveaways. The devil is in the details, however; despite being near the top of his class with 274 TPE, Fantobens has less than $1.5 million in his bank account, which may be a red flag for his draft stock. Sawful and Sato are in a fairly similar position, with both having 273 TPE. Sawful broke out offensively with a 6-goal, 20-point season for the Anchorage Armada, while Sato put up a more reserved 2 goals and 8 points for the Vancouver Whalers. Aumy Jr. had a decent rookie season for the Colorado Raptors, putting up 5 goals and 13 points along with 55 hits, while Souppan and Klompus put up 15 and 13-point seasons respectively as teammates for the Newfoundland Berserkers.

Everyone in this group except for Sondergard is between 267 and 274 TPE, so that may not be the main factor determining which order these rookies are taken in. The main determinant could be money. Fantobens as previously mentioned is low on cash and Souppan is in debt, raising questions of their long-term future. In addition, Aumy Jr., despite having one of the highest TPEs in the class and the highest bank account of any of these seven outside of Sondergard, comes with significant red flags regarding his history and has already been suspended once. I might be biased or working off of limited data due to being a teammate, but I think Sato will be the second defenseman off the board after Sondergard due to his strong bank account and media production, followed by Sawful and Klompus in some order, and then Fantobens and Souppan in some order, and finally Aumy Jr. The talent is there for him, but it depends which team is willing to take a chance on the Finnish defender.

The Next Ones: Emilia Bergman, Bork Lazer, Alexei Petrikov, Elwulf Jericson, Anrijs Asts, Tinke Jutila

This group ranges from 249-261 TPE, so they’re all fairly close together, much like the first group. Petrikov and Jutila are the recreates of this group, while the other four are first-gens. Emilia Bergman was thrown right onto the top pairing for an Anaheim Outlaws team that badly needed depth at defense and didn’t look out of place, registering 2 goals and 23 points while averaging a staggering 25:19 of ice time per game, the most of any rookie in the league by almost two full minutes and fourth-highest overall. Bork Lazer and Alexei Petrikov are teammates for the Anchorage Armada, and a big part of their meteoric rise to the top of the Western Conference. Petrikov put up 10 goals and 28 points, while Lazer wasn’t too far behind with 6 goals and 26 points. The two complement each other well; while Petrikov is smooth-skating and can make plays, Lazer brings the beef with 94 hits and 55 blocked shots. Responsibility with the puck may be a concern, as Petrikov had 29 giveaways to 14 takeaways while Lazer had 33 giveaways and 14 takeaways. Their TPEs are essentially a wash with Lazer having 257 and Petrikov having 256, but Petrikov is by far the better pick, having a bank account of over $23 million while Lazer is almost a million dollars in debt. The next three in TPE all play for different teams. Jericson has had a pretty good playmaking season for the St. Louis Scarecrows, recording 1 goal and 19 points. He isn’t the most physical, but makes up for it with his hockey IQ. Next up is Anrijs Asts, another rookie defenseman for Colorado. Despite having a much lower TPE, he actually outplayed his rookie teammate Aumy Jr., putting up 17 points while recording 65 hits and 32 blocked shots. Rounding out the list is Tinke Jutila, a teammate of league ice time king Jukka Timonen. You’ve gotta be good to keep up with him, and Jutila has performed quite well in a physically imposing role, picking up 81 hits and leading the entire league in blocked shots with 128.

As for ranking them, I think the earliest-picked of this group will be one of Emilia Bergman or Alexei Petrikov. Both have very similar TPE and bank account values, so it comes down to whichever one teams think will be a better fit. Jutila should be next, as an effective minute-munching defenseman with a strong bank account, with Jericson not far behind him. The back of this group is basically a toss-up between Asts and Lazer. Both are active first-gens who urgently need to start earning money soon if they want to keep up with their draft class peers, although to Lazer’s credit, they did just put out an article that will net them over $6.5 million.

The Rest Over 200: Slimey Snail, Adam Friedland, James LeBlond, Renji Atake, Devin Williams, Elias Kierkegaard, Will Windsor, Pojo Biscuit, Sammy Koa

This is a pretty sizeable group ranging between 206-230 TPE. There are without a doubt some future studs in this class, but teams might just have to look a little harder to identify them. Of this group, one plays for Anaheim, one for Anchorage, one for Carolina, one for Kelowna, one for Maine, two for Newfoundland, and two for Vancouver. This bunch is rather recreate-heavy, with Snail, LeBlond and Williams being the only first-gens. I won’t get too into the weeds on stats here, as around this range it will likely get more into how players perform in their team interviews and what recreates’ histories with teams are. The one name in this group that really intrigues me is Pojo Biscuit. He has a bank account of over $50 million and is a member of the site staff, and if it weren’t for the fact that he was a trade deadline recreate I think Biscuit would have been in the top tier of draft picks.

Everyone Else: Sheen Beckett, Chet Hillier, AJ Patella, Alexader Kazur II

These four are between 165 and 190 TPE, and I mostly included them for the sake of posterity. Teams might take a flyer on them, but it’s a tossup. Hillier at least seems to be moderately active and has some graphics interest, and Beckett is a regular updater for Colorado.

As for players that might move between these arbitrary tier lists I made up, I think the names to watch would be Aumy Jr., Emilia Bergman, Alexei Petrikov, and Pojo Biscuit. The line between the first two tiers I created isn’t super well-defined, so Bergman and Petrikov could be propelled up the ranks, especially with Joseph Fantobens and PBJ Souppan being broke. Aumy Jr., as said before, is a wildcard with top TPE but also an alarming history, while Pojo Biscuit could be an attractive target for teams who might be willing to sacrifice some TPE to get what is essentially a sure thing of a prospect. Other than that, it’s hard to make a master list of all of these defense prospects. There’s just too many variables with how teams are willing to value TPE, money, past histories with teams, and so on. My best guess at ranking all the ones over 200 TPE, which you can feel free to tear apart if you like in the comment section:

Mikkel Asmus Sondergard
Ryosuke Sato
Matthew Sawful
Emilia Bergman
Alexei Petrikov
Joseph Fantobens
Jack Klompus
PBJ Souppan
Tinke Jutila
Elwulf Jericson
Pojo Biscuit
Bork Lazer
Aumy Jr.
Anrijs Asts
Will Windsor
Elias Kierkegaard
Renji Atake
Slimey Snail
Adam Friedland
James LeBlond
Devin Williams
Sammy Koa

Now for part two of the article. Let’s take a dive into which teams might need defense, going team-by-team:

Baltimore Platoon

Regressing this offseason on defense (S44 or older): Kristaps Ball (S41, 1081)
Existing defense prospects: Valentin Kalashnikov (S53, 410)
Current picks for S54: Own 1st, Own 4th, Own 5th

The newly-rechristened Baltimore Platoon are in a curious situation. Their defense has three pretty good options right now in Kristaps Ball, Nat Emerson and Ethan Ross. Unfortunately, none are over 1500 TPE and the team only has one defensive prospect. In addition, the Platoon don’t have a ton of draft capital this season, with only three picks. They also dealt away both of their first-round picks for S55 and S56 in separate deals, so there’s not a ton of high-end help on the way in future drafts. The team has several decent options on offense with Henrik Lundqvist Jr., Indigo Trevino and Ethan Duncan making the jump or on the way, but with so little draft capital it would be prudent to use one on a defenseman.

Buffalo Stampede

Regressing this offseason (S44 or older): Tatu Makela (S38, 1149), Poopity Scoop (S44, 1922)
Existing defense prospects: Luciano Vessot (S51, 429, is retiring from the site so won’t be re-upped), Trevor Johnson (S53, 219)
Current picks: Own 1st, MIN 1st, Own 2nd, WPG 2nd, Own 4th, Own 5th

With only one mid-tier prospect in the pipeline, Buffalo is primed to compete now, but they need something more. The offense is in good hands, with high-end prospects and elite players, so they could likely use their higher first-round pick, Minnesota’s selection, to pick up a blue-chip defense prospect, if not using both picks on the blueline. With four picks in the first two rounds and two of them from bad teams, the possibilities are endless.

Calgary Dragons

Regressing this offseason: Otis B. Driftwood (S40, 1689)
Existing defense prospects: Bradley Barkov (S53, 444)
Current picks: Own 1st, Own 2nd, CHI 2nd, Own 3rd, Own 4th, Own 5th

Calgary is in a pretty good situation, with only one elite player regressing and elite prospect Bradley Barkov waiting in the wings, along with all their own draft picks for this season. I expect they’ll use at least one of their picks on a goalie to eventually replace Kata Vilde and add forward depth to their low prospect pool, while maybe taking a flyer on a defenseman later in the draft.

Chicago Syndicate

Regressing this offseason: Liam O’Callaghan (S39, 980)
Existing defense prospects: Luc-Pierre Lespineau-Lebrunette (S51, 541)
Current picks: Own 1st, Conditional SFP 1st, Own 3rd, BUF 3rd, WPG 3rd, Own 4th, Own 5th

Chicago is in a decent spot on the back end, with only one player in regression and no others older than S46. The team has several pending free agents to sign, including five forwards, so I expect this to be a quiet draft for Chicago where they restock the cupboards up front somewhat.

Edmonton Blizzard

Regressing this offseason: Tor Tuck (S37, 1409), Brady McIntyre (S42, 1753), Jordan von Matt (S42, 833)
Existing defense prospects: Blake Feaux (S53, 256)
Current picks: Own 1st, MAN 1st, Own 3rd, Own 4th, TOR 4th, Own 5th

Edmonton is a team that will likely target defense this draft. Only two of their forwards, Hercules Rockefeller and Tony Pepperoni, are older than S46, and they have three solid prospects in Luke McMaster, William Hartmann and Carlos Brown to fill the future holes up front. The Blizzard have two first-round picks as a result of trading down last season, so they’ve got some draft capital to get the guys they want.

Hamilton Steelhawks

Regressing this offseason: Troy McClure III (S42, 1318), Tig Murphy (S43, 1676)
Existing defense prospects: None
Current picks: Own 1st, Own 2nd, Own 3rd, Own 4th, Own 5th

The Steelhawks are absolutely stacked on defense, with no players below 1000 TPE and four of their six blueliners being part of either the S47 or S48 classes. The Steelhawks, however, are facing a cap crunch with $41 million in space to make decisions on six forwards, a defenseman, both goalies, and almost their entire prospect pool. I wouldn’t be surprised if Hamilton doesn’t do much in the S54 draft, but they do have zero defensive prospects which could be a target for improvement.

Los Angeles Panthers

Regressing this offseason: Jon Toner (S39, 1461)
Existing defense prospects: Michael Lee (S53, 350)
Current picks: Own 2nd, Own 3rd, Own 4th, Own 5th

Los Angeles is another team that mostly just needs to tinker around the edges. They don’t have a huge prospect pool, but they do have $53.5 million in cap space to re-sign seven players, so they’re in a good spot. There’s no need for them to specifically target a position, but adding depth would be a solid use of their draft picks.

Manhattan Rage

Regressing this offseason: Reginald MacIntyre (S41, 1327), Craig Finley (S43, 948), Barret McCarthy (S44, 1837)
Existing defense prospects: Jukka Timonen (S53, 447)
Current picks: Own 3rd, Own 4th, Own 5th

Coming off a season where the defending champions are desperately fighting to make the playoffs, the Rage don’t have a ton of draft picks to work with. They’ll have more picks in S55, and it’s not urgent that they restock right now, but defense would be good to target. Manhattan has five players above 1300 TPE on offense, so they’re good there. The Rage will have to draft smartly to make the most of their limited draft capital.

Minnesota Chiefs

Regressing this offseason: Ti-Guy Emond (S39, 864), Geoff Moore (S42, 1474)
Existing defense prospects: Bryce Turner (S53, 331), Ben van Dijk (S53, 325)
Current picks: LAP 1st, Own 2nd, EDM 2nd, TEX 2nd, Own 3rd, Own 4th, Own 5th

Minnesota has the intriguing situation of a large prospect pool combined with several inactive forwards. This will be a very young team going forward, and Minnesota has the added advantage of an impressive number of draft picks this time around. They need depth at every position, so it’s not impossible that a defenseman or two could be picked up with those picks.

New England Wolfpack

Regressing this offseason: Ensio Kalju (S40, 1514), Maximilian Egger (S43, 1266), Rex Kirkby (S43, 1978)
Existing defense prospects: Sven Yxskaft (S52, 650)
Current picks: TEX 1st, Own 3rd, Own 4th, Own 5th

New England is also a team that doesn’t have a lot of shopping to do. Three of their defensemen are regressing, but Kirkby will be there for a very long time and Sven Yxskaft is on the way up. The Wolfpack will likely go for players they like without specific regard to position.

New Orleans Specters

Regressing this offseason: DeMaricus Smyth (S39, 1527)
Existing defense prospects: Erben Kasius (S53, 441)
Current picks: Own 1st, Own 2nd, Own 3rd, Own 4th, Own 5th

New Orleans doesn’t need to do too much right now to improve the back end. Every blueliner except for Smyth is a S47 or younger, and Kasius is there to fill the void anyway. New Orleans has a few forwards in regression, but other than the ancient Joe Kurczewski none are tracking to be replaced anytime soon, and besides there’s Mitchell van der Heijden. They’ll pick up the guys they like and call it a day.

San Francisco Pride

Regressing this offseason: Jack Tanner (S37, 1055), Charlie Schieck (S42, 1503), Ray Bork (S44, 1713)
Existing defense prospects: Alex Petrenko (S51, 670)
Current picks: Own 2nd, BAL 2nd, Own 3rd, Own 4th, Own 5th, BUF 5th

San Francisco is a pretty good team, but they have eight players in or hitting regression, and only four players in their prospect pool. They have $31.5 million to re-sign seven players and a draft class, and they don’t have a first-round pick, so the Pride will have to make the most of the picks they have. As Petrenko is a virtual lock to be called up next season to replace the retiring Tokek Takshak, I could absolutely see San Francisco taking a defenseman or two to develop for the future.

Tampa Bay Barracuda

Regressing this offseason: Sean Stevenson Jr. (S43, 1105)
Existing defense prospects: Ulrik Bergstrom (S52, 462), Noah Nystrom (S52, 369), Ambacas Cuddles (S53, 473), Erik Johansson (S53, 228)
Current picks: Own 1st, Own 2nd, Own 3rd, Own 5th

Tampa has been laughed at mercilessly for their lack of defense, but they actually have a really solid defensive core if their young guys pan out. The bigger issue is on offense, where S53 winger Frederick Wanesly is their only real prospect. I’d expect Tampa to focus on that first while they wait for their defensive prospects to marinate.

Texas Renegades

Regressing this offseason: Fredrich Koenig (S39, 582), Harvey Danger (S42, 1410), Jean-Pierre Gay (S44, 625)
Existing defense prospects: Adam Scianna (S52, 649), Guy O’Shea (S52, 507)
Current picks: WPG 1st, NEW 1st, NEW 2nd, Own 3rd, Own 4th, TBB 4th, Own 5th

Texas boasts a very strong prospect pool on offense and defense, with young guns Adam Scianna and Guy O’Shea soon to make the jump to the SHL. They also have two first-round draft picks. The salary cap might be a bit tight as O’Shea, Jake Primeau and Alexander Wachter all need new contracts and the Renegades have $16 million to spend, but they should be fine. I’d guess Texas just needs to stay the course and draft the best players they can get without regard to position, as Harvey Danger is still a very high-end option and doesn’t need to be replaced for a bit.

Toronto North Stars

Regressing this offseason: None
Existing defense prospects: Jack Kanoff (S53, 462), Toki Wartooth (S53, 270), Axel Meszaros (S53, 434)
Current picks: Own 1st, Own 2nd, MAN 2nd, Own 3rd, Own 5th

Toronto has been notorious this season as the league’s meme team, but there’s a lot here to like. Nobody on the defense is regressing, and no defensemen who are actually active are older than S49. The Process seems to be working as planned, and Jack Kanoff and Axel Meszaros are extremely promising options. Toronto should be graduating quite a few people to the SHL this season, so I would guess they’ll try to focus on offense first to keep the pipeline flowing.

Winnipeg Jets

Regressing this offseason: Gary Grease (S39, 1163)
Existing defense prospects: Magnus Liljestrom (S53, 457)
Current picks: Own 3rd, Own 4th, Own 5th

Winnipeg seems to have a decent defensive situation right now. Magnus Liljestrom is a legit prospect and a good use of the first overall pick last season, and Grease is still an excellent talent. The issues are their offense and draft capital. Four of their forwards are regressing, and of those, Terrance Nova is as old as the hills and Reginald Rove will soon be below replacement level as well, but the Jets do have three prospects in Bale, Theo Golury and Reid Sutherland to eventually patch those holes. The problem is that the Jets don’t have a first- or second-round pick due to trades made last season, so while I expect they’ll target forwards, the Jets will have to be smart.

In summary, I would say that Baltimore, Buffalo, Edmonton, Manhattan, and San Francisco are the teams I would most expect to pick up a defenseman in this upcoming SHL draft.

Snoopdogg · 04-26-2020, 05:01 PM

I liked this very much, good work. Can't wait to see your take on the forward prospects
And I also agree with your top 5 for sure.

*Leppish* · 04-26-2020, 05:13 PM

Good stuff, although my player (Geoff Moore) is now on WKP.

Dextaria · 04-26-2020, 05:14 PM

Deep defensive draft class. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot a variance in draft order! Great read!

***bluesfan55*** · 04-26-2020, 08:39 PM

wouldn’t be surprised if Biscuit went in the first round. bojo is a shl legend so he’ll be gone early

***boom*** · 04-26-2020, 08:45 PM

04-26-2020, 08:39 PMbluesfan55 Wrote: wouldn’t be surprised if Biscuit went in the first round. bojo is a shl legend so he’ll be gone early

Bojo is definitely one I’ll be following. He has like 60 less TPE than the top pack in this class, but he’s as sure of a pick as you can get. As I said in the piece, if he was an off-season create he would be the undisputed 1OA.