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juke · 09-01-2020, 01:40 PM

Ready for grading, please split between Dextaria, SDCore, and myself

(I copied this intro from the SHL version, feel free not to include it in grading)

SMJHL playoffs are here, which means it’s once again time to run the numbers and report the percent chance that each team has of winning any given game, and subsequently their series. Just like my media series about this last playoffs, the graphs and series chance for each matchup will be updated after every sim or two, and some context and stats will be added for individual games, as well as the series as a whole. This year, @"Dexteria" and @”SDcore” will be joining me in covering some of the specific matchups for round 3,which features some familiar teams and matchups from last season’s semi-finals, as well as a MET team looking to continue their first FHM playoff run. As always, before just going straight into the numbers, I’d like to clarify some of the background and theory behind how this breakdown works.The methodology behind the numbers and calculations are the same as last year, so feel free to skip straight to the breakdowns if you’re familiar with how they’re calculated, or just don’t care.

Numbers only: The most important thing for me to clarify, is that these aren’t my ‘predictions’ of who’s going to win each series. It’s just reporting the probabilities of team wins, based on that team’s scoring trends. There’s no context behind the probabilities, it’s literally just statistics. Other members of the SJHN have/will put out their own spins of the specific breakdown of each matchup, and those pieces are where you’ll find more context and predictions about each series.

Tactics: This is the biggest flaw in all these numbers. They’re just using season averages, where a lot of teams likely found the best tactics for their team in a broad, general sense, and went with them to try and win as many games as possible. However, come playoffs with 4-7 games against the same opponent, teams will be trying to counter the other, or maybe have new line combinations or tactic settings to give them an advantage. This can’t really be reported in my numbers (other than head to head factor which I talk about in a second), so certain teams are going to match up better or worse then the numbers suggest, based on how well they can adjust their strategies.

Estimated score: This is the entire foundation of all the probabilities in this series. For each matchup, each team is given an estimated number of goals they’ll score in any given game, which is then used for all the rest of the math in these posts. This number is a function of each team’s scoring trends, both goals for and against, during the 50 game season, relative to league average. The number generated won’t be a real score, it’ll be something impossible to actually score, like 3.41 as a random example. But we use that value to calculate the probability of each team scoring a real number of goals, ranging from 0 to 8 in a single game.

Game chances: Using this estimated score and the probabilities that each team scores a certain amount of goals, we can estimate the percent chance that each team will win any given game.

Series chances: Once we have the percent chance that each team will win in either location, we can extrapolate to calculate the probability of each team winning at least 4 out of the 7 games for the series win.

No momentum: I know that momentum is a thing in FHM, but these numbers won't take that into account directly. However, I’ve changed how the expected goals are calculated this season, and the matchup values will be weighted more heavily towards the team’s head-to-head record on the season then I weighted them last playoffs. This means that if a team wins 2 games in a row in the series, although the actual momentum modifier from FHM won’t be considered, that team’s odds will still increase more significantly, because they’ll also have performed better in the head-to-head modifier on my end.

Home vs. Away: Also a new change from last playoffs, I decided to scrap the home vs. away distinction in the code. Although some teams really did perform much differently based on location, I decided 25 games for each was too small of a sample size, and things like a few bad games, or playing backup goalies more in one location could really skew the numbers, and as a result, the entire probabilities. Team scoring stats are based on their 50 game season stats, as well as updated for playoff stats as each game is played.

Scoring graphs: I also decided to not make the individual scoring probability graphs, which show the chances of all possible score outcomes for games. I figured no one really looked at them or cared too much. They’re automatically generated when I make the rest of the figures, so I have them if anyone wants them, but I really doubt anyone does.

Matchup breakdown: This is the first of the graphs that will be updated after each game. It compares the two teams in each matchup, and how well each of them are performing relative to each other in a few key stats. Before game 1, the matchup breakdown graphs will just be using season stats, but after game 1, it will be representative of the current playoff matchup. The numbers plotted are per game, and the exact value for each team is also on the graph.

Series tracker: This final graph represents each team’s series chances after each game. Before game 1, it will be a very boring graph with just two points, but after each game it will track how the series chances change with each team’s win or loss.

Ok lets get on to the probabilities.

MET vs. KEL Knights

Pre Series

MET’s first FHM playoffs continues to impress, pulling off the upset against the league’s best defense and goalie from the regular season, and now they advance to the semi-finals to play KEL. On the other hand, this is familiar territory for the Knights, who have made it at least this far in both of the last two FHM playoffs, including moving on to the finals in one of those. The regular season numbers between these two teams look like a very even matchup, with KEL having the slight edge in goals for/against, but MET has a small goaltending advantage. The Knights’ biggest advantage against MET comes in their overall shot suppression numbers (though MET hopes to make up for it with their shot blocking), while the TImber’s biggest advantage comes from their potent powerplay. The percent chance numbers also tell the tale of an even series, with KEL having a starting advantage at 55.3% game percentage, expected goals at 3.15 to 2.98. This leads to a series advantage for KEL at 61.5%, though MET likely won’t be paying too much attention that that number after knocking off the West’s #1 seed. The season split between these two teams was 2-2, with MET outscoring the Knights 13-11 in those 4 games, so with the first glance at everything, we’re in for a close series.

General Series Stats

Game 1

4 - 1

This series started with Kelowna being a slight favorite to win, with just around a 55% chance, but then Maine came out swinging. They were able to score on limited chances, which if I'm being honest seems to be a thing in these playoffs. Despite being outshot and out played the Timber took game one over the Knights. The physical stats were relatively even with Maine taking a few more penalty minutes. I'd normally say here, if Maine want to survive they need to sure up their defense, but it seems like they are really opportunistic. Leaving game one you see a dip and Maine take over as favorites with a 55.3% chance to take the series.

Game 2

2 - 3

After dropping the first game, the Kelowna Knights answered back with a 3-2 overtime victory over the Maine Timber. It was a bit of a goaltender’s duel tonight as the 2 goalies put up 0.920 and 0.930 save percentages for their respective teams of Maine and Kelowna. Also, for the entirety of the game it seemed as if the 2 teams were right with each other as neither had too clear of an advantage heading into overtime. This showed in the stats where their shot totals, corsi, shots blocked, and takeaways were basically the same. The only stat where one team dominated was in hits. The Knights laid the body twice as many times tonight. And so, with this win the Kelowna Knights increase their chances of winning to 57%, tying the series up at 1-1.

Game 3

2 - 5

The Knights are able to take down the Timber in game 3 of this series, however much like the other series going on the ending score is not really indicative of the play. Maine posted the second lowest PDO I have now seen in the playoffs at 87.7. They were able to out shoot, register a higher corsi, and most all physical stats. Now here is where the Knights, much like the Kraken in game one, capitalized. They were able to handily win the special teams battle. The Timber found themselves on the penalty kill for 16 minutes in this game, with the Knights scoring 2 goals on it. This was the big difference in this game and could be the ax in the Timber. The Knights leave the series with a 76.3% chance to take it all.

Game 4

2 - 1

Another solid game for Leo Bloomfield of the Maine TImber. This is the second time this series that he has held the Knights to only one goal against when Maine was getting outshot. I would say Bloomfield and the Timber defense stole this game as Bloomfield made 31 saves and their players had 27 shots blocked to stop the Knights offense. Kelowna played really well with the higher corsi, hits, and a save percentage of 0.910%. However, their single powerplay goal wasn’t enough for put them up 3-1 in the series. As a result the series is tied 2-2 and these teams will be looking at a best of three. Heading into that, Kelowna still has the slight edge at 57.5%

Game 5

4 - 5

[img=600x370https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/673213848282595328/751186443895963788/unknown.png[/img]

The Knights were able to get a lead on the Timber here in game five in a tight battle. They won the game 5 - 4, but it never felt really close. The Knights controlled majority of play. This series has been a bit of a penalty mess, but neither team really has much to say on special teams. Both teams are really physical, but nothing much is really separating the two of them. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the end. I would give the slight edge to the Knights here, but Maines absolute ability to score would have me a little bit worried. Following this game Kelowna has an 80% chance to take the series.

Game 6

Game 7

I wasn’t able to get game graphs from this one and I’m now finishing up this doc like two weeks after the fact, but MET pulled off the game 6 and 7 wins against KEL and moved on to the finals to try and bring home their first Cup since I think the S30s.

CAR vs. NL Berserkers

Pre Series

The number 1 and 2 teams from the regular season will be squaring off against each other in the other semi-final, as CAR and NL have a repeat of last season’s series that saw CAR winning and moving into the finals. While it’s a small shame that these two juggernauts have to face off in the semi-finals due to FHM’s playoff bracket formatting, since they’re both Eastern teams they would’ve had to do that in past formats anyways. The regular season stats show about as balanced and even of two teams as possible, with NL holding miniscule advantages in many stats including goals scored, SOG, and corsi, with CAR in the lead in goals against and SB. But for the most part the team bars are hovering right around that .5 mark. NL took the season matchups between these two teams with a 3-0-1 record, and will enter the series with some of the smallest advantages reported in this ongoing media series. The Berserkers will hope their 53.4% game probability isn’t just within a margin of error, as it leads to a 57.4% chance of a series win, while CAR knows it will only take a few lucky bounces or timely saves to tilt that percentage toward their side of 50%. Either way we’re slated for a very competitive series, to find out if NL can even things up after last season, or if CAR can once again hold them off and go on to defend their cup.

General Series Stats

Game 1

4 - 0

Game 1 of the Newfoundland and Carolina series was a really confounding game if you look at the numbers. The Berserkers had one of the lowest PDOs I have seen in the playoffs at 84. They out shot the Kraken by 20, they had a higher corsi, more hits, more shot blocks, but were unable to keep the puck out of their own net. Carolina to their credit had a solid power play performance and Blunt Man had an unreal game. If the Kraken continue to get out played, you'd hope the Berserkers will be able to take back some momentum in this series, but losing home ice in game 1 is tough. Carolina takes control of the series at 59.3%.

Game 2

7 - 5

A crazy high scoring game between the Carolina Kraken and the Newfoundland Berserkers as in this game we saw a total of 5 goals scored in the first, and 6 goals scored in the third. This is in addition to the 3 goals scored in the span of less than a minute and a half. With these goals, the game was first tied by the Berserkers before the Kraken scored the game winner plus an insurance marker. It was certainly a complete meltdown for the Berserkers as they gave up two 2-goal leads. Stats-wise the 2 teams were very similar. Newfoundland did have more hits, but they also had a lower PDO and save percentage which probably cost them this game. The Kraken on the other hand was able to win with a poor save percentage of their own at 0.850%. With this, Carolina takes a commanding 2-0, increasing their chances to 79.4%.

Game 3

1 - 4

Game 3 in this series and things are starting to normalize a bit. Newfoundland got off to a hot start and were able to maintain that lead against Carolina. Home teams don't seem to be faring well right now in this season, which appears to be quite the anomaly. This is the first game where Newfoundland had a positive PDO and a win in the special teams department. Carolina evened up their corsi rating. Whereas in game 2 where the 4th line dominated for Carolina, Newfoundlands even scoring came through in this one. It will be interesting to see if the lower lines winning against their respective lines is what is the difference in this season. Despite the Newfoundland win, Carolina still leaves with a 63.7% chance of taking the series.

Game 4

3 - 4

I think this is exactly what people expected from this series. Two strong teams going head-to-head with no clear winner to be expected. This game really was a nailbiter as every lead was eventually tied by the other team except for the clutch goal scored by LeGrande in the final couple seconds of the game. Stats-wise, Newfoundland did well with the higher corsi, PDO, hits, and takeaways. The Kraken did decently as well with their 3 goals on 31 shots on net. However, it was Newfoundland’s clutch goal scoring and better goaltending that sealed the deal this game. With this, the Berserkers after falling behind 0-2 in the series initially, has made it back to 2-2. It comes down to a best of 3 between these teams and the percentages say that with this momentum swing, Newfoundland has a better chance at 55.1%

Game 5

1 - 2

We are going to be talking about this series for a long time I feel. Two juggernauts going at each other in the Eastern Conference Finals. Home Ice finally prevails here, as Newfoundland is able to squeak out a 2-1 victory. They are able to lead in most of the metrics, but this time their goalie Cale was able to hold onto a lead giving them the slight edge. If this series has shown anything, it's a true coming out party for Blunt Man, as he has stood on his head to keep Carolina in this series. Newfoundland continues to be physical and drive the play. The Berserkers now have an edge of 77.2% to take the series.

Game 6

Game 7

Just like the other series, not game graphs or real updates for this one. NL was able to sneak a game 7 win out in a double header sim, and move on to their first finals in franchise history.

***trashae*** · 09-01-2020, 02:13 PM

dibs on winning

juke · 09-02-2020, 12:39 PM

updated through game 2s. I have no idea why KEL is breaking the GR part of the graphs this round and last

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