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Salming · 12-28-2020, 10:34 AM

(x2 media - Holidays Edition)

When I was a rookie, I wrote some deep dive articles where I compared different kind of analytics. In this article, I have decided to focus again on one of the advanced stat which can be found on SMJHL index. I will want to find out if there are some major differences in analytics which could tell some reasons why some teams have been so good and why some teams struggle. There are several different categories which I could look at closer but let's focus mainly to CF%. Wikipedia says about that stat the following:

Corsi, called shot attempts (SAT) by the NHL,[4] is the sum of shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots.[5] Corsi is used to approximate puck possession – the length of time a player's team controls the puck – and is typically measured as either a ratio (like plus-minus) of shot attempts for less shot attempts against, or as a percentage.[5] According to blogger Kent Wilson, most players will have a Corsi For percentage (CF%) between 40 and 60. A player or team ranked above 55% is often considered "elite".[5]

Let's start from the best team in the league, Quebec City Citadelles

. They have 78 points in 49 games. Winning percentage is 79,6%. So, Citadelles have 13 players at the moment whose CF% is over 55%. In fact, all of those 13 players have a minimum of 60,3 CF%. They have only five players who are not considered elite when it comes to CF% but even those players have CF% between 51,4% and 53,9%. Newest member of the team is Liam Slate whose CF% is so far lowest but I guess in that case he just needs more games in this organisation to bump his CF% up because he played in another organisation earlier this season. In addition of Slate, there are two defenders and couple of fourth liners whose CF% is under 55% but like I said everything above 50% is more than fine too especially if your role is a little bit smaller. Top defensive pair T. Petrov and J. Maximov dominate CF% category also in the whole league. Both of them have CF% of 65,2 which is more than elite and when they are on ice, Citadelles really dominates the possession and shot charts. After that top defensive pair we have five forwards who are really close to each other because CF%'s are between 62,6% and 62,0%. Myself (William Salming) and Tres Sombreros have best CF%'s among Citadelles forwards but Stan Q. Next is only behind with a margin of 0.1 percentage. After him next in line are I. Petrov and Ryan Rieley. Also Maro, Kevens, Koskinen and MVP Beranek are above 60%.

Second best team in the league is Anchorage Armada Armada

. They have 70 points in 46 games. Winning percentage is 76,1%. Armada has even more "elite" players than Citadelles have because there are 15 players who have above 55 CF%. What is important to notice, Armada has best five forwards in the league when it comes to CF%. Tokkulu Lakkamaa (64,8%), Lemo Pihl (64,5%) and Paul Binder (64,0%) are right behind of Citadelles' D pair Maximov-Petrov in CF% category. Thorbjorn Gunnarson and Slava Petrov are the other two forwards who are among best five forwards in the league in CF% (63,8%). If Citadelles had a pretty noticiable drop between TOP13 and BOTTOM5 in CF%'s, Armada's numbers don't have a such big drop because the tenth best CF% is 60,4% owned by Bean Beanman and 15th best CF% is 57,8% owned bu TURG TURG. Of course, then there is a little gap to the 16th best player who is Dee Centerman IV with 52,3% but like Liam Slate, he was also traded lately from the worse team to a better one so I expect that his numbers will rise in the near future for sure, right? Like Citadelles, also all Armada players have a minimum of 50 CF%. Worst CF% belongs to LW Cole Carter but even he has a solid CF% 51,0%. All in all, when we look at CF%'s, maybe Armada should even lead the league instead of Citadelles because they have two more "elite" players? It's a close one anyway. Armada has a edge when it comes forwards's corsi percentages but Citadelles have better top D pair.

Kelowna Knights Knights

has third best winning percentage 62,5%. They have 60 points in 48 games. It is a little surprising that they have only three (!) "elite" players if CF% is the stat which matters. The gap in points and winning percentage is of course big to the top two teams but also in elite players. Those three elite players according to this stat are Kynwyl Pearce (57,6%), Logan Wong (57,5%) and Patrick Money (56,9%). I guess that line plays together and drives possession for Kelowna but after them it is a little bit more quiet. Kelowna has third best GA so it seems their play style is more defensive oriented than Citadelles' or Armada's. However, Kelowna has overall 10 players who CF% is above 50 and only four players have worse CF% than 47% so 14 best players are between 47+ and 57+ when it comes CF%. It is a pretty balanced team with one extremely good line, I would say. TOP4 defence is also very near to each other. Best CF% is owned by Teddy Park (53,6%) and fourth best belongs to Richard LaFleur (50,7%).

Maine Timber Timber

has fourth best winning percentage 59,4%. They have 57 points in 48 games. And you know what, Maine don't have any elite players! Best CF% belongs to LW Fredrik Stefansson (52,9%). Incredible. Maine has scored 134 goals but it has 4th best GA number 128 so like Kelowna, also Maine is more defensively focused team than TOP2 teams or maybe they don't just have enough talent in forward positions. It might be a mix of both things. Jesse Seppanen and Calvin Hobbles are two other forwards whose CF% is over 50 so I guess Stefansson, Seppanen and Hobbles is the line which drives possession and dominates shot charts for Maine. And like Kelowna, also Maine's TOP4 defence is very tight. Best CF% is 51,0% by Rikard Bjerg and worst is 49,7% owned by Nathan Thomas. Adrik Baranov and Sean Gatez are between them. Maine has overall number of 13 players whose CF% is at least 47% so three first forward lines and TOP4 defence is pretty solid in the end, you could say. They have six players whose CF%'s vary between 41,7% and 45,4% but those are not either bad numbers.

Anaheim Outlaws Outlaws

has fifth best winning percentage 55,1%. They have 54 points in 49 games. They have only one elite player in LW Chet Hillier (55,1%) but his linemates (?) Asclepius Perseus Flitter and Kaapo Kampainen are very close because theirs CF%'s are above 54%. If we compare Anaheim to two teams above it, Anaheim actually have more players above 50 CF% than Kelowna or Maine because there are 13 players with 50+ CF% in Anaheim when there was only ten in Kelowna for example. TOP4 defencemen are Kolja Kekkonen, Arsene Leclerc, Julian Cunningham and Farley Hank whose CF%'s vary between 53,0% to 51,3%. That leaves us nine forwards who are close to elite in CF% but not quite there. And like Maine, also Anaheim has six more players to go through. Best of the rest are defencemen Michael Scotch and Joorgustraad DuBolk with 49,9% and 49,1%. Also center Niccolo Livius has decent number in 47,1% but after him there are three forwards closer to 40% than 50%.

Nevada Battleborn

has sixth best winning percentage 53,8%. They have 56 points in 52 games. There are no elite corsi players in Nevada either. Center Rob Wright leads the pack with 52,8 CF%. Only the first unit Wright, Kenji Sugimoto, Sven Gunnar, Vili Tuga?tuga?bo?atu and Grandmaster Funk have CF% over 50. That is a little bit surprising. But, Nevada is very balanced team because rest of the team's CF%'s are between 49,7% and 45,7%. There isn't any weak players at all in Nevada right now and all lines are pretty equal after the first five-man unit. Very interesting. I also notice that after Wright second best center Helminen has 10th best CF% in his team and then comes even bigger drop because Strongo, Sidorov and Grabeklis are among six worst players when it comes corsi percentage in Nevada so maybe that's why they have struggles this season? Centers are not good enough to drive possession from the own end to the other end? I don't know but that could be the thing.

Colorado Raptors Raptors

has seventh best winning percentage 53,2%. They have 50 points in 47 matches. After a drought, we have finally again a team who has lot of elite players in based on CF%. Colorado has eight players with at least 58+ CF%. Defencemen Ruggs McOoooh and Jed Mosley Jr lead the team with 63,2% and 62,9%. After them are LW Jarmo Kekalainen, center Josh Dolphin, LW Sonita Diamante and RW Juni Panda. It is not a surprise that for example Dolphin and Kekalainen are high in scoring race also when they have these kind of CF% numbers. Colorado's problem is that third best D is Anrijs Asts whose CF% 51,8% is significantly lower compared to top two D's. So, Colorado has two great defenceman and forward lines but after them standard is not that high and that's why Colorado are in seventh place when it comes to winning percentage. They have scored 141 goals but also conceded equal amount of pucks to own net. All in all, Colorado has 13 players with at least 50+ CF% but unlike other teams above them, that 13 players is not a mix of nine forwards and four defencemen. It is a mix of six defenfemen and seven forwards which is interesting too. So, second and third D pair are pretty close to each other but bottom forward lines can't really match to TOP6 forwards. They have even two forwards under 44 CF%.

Vancouver Whalers Whalers

has the eigth best winning percentage 50,0%. They have 48 points in 48 games. They don't have any elite players and only two players whose CF% is above 50. Those guys are defenders Zayne Rotzbua and Zebulon Leavitt who have both 53,5 CF%. After them there are six forwards whose CF%'s vary between 49,6% and 48,1%. Casey Outlaw, Rikki Petrov, KnocketOut byOvechkin and Valtterri Kauppinen are the best ones. There are actually 11 forwards in a row until in the ranking is Vancouver's third best defencemen Johnny Shuffleboard with 45,4%. So, gap between TOP2 defenders and rest of the defencemen is enormous. On the other hand, Vancouver don't have any players under 40 CF% but they are just too mediocre group this season and don't have enough talent.

Detroit Falcons Falcons

and Carolina Kraken Kraken

share the ninth place because both of them have winning percentage of 45,7%. They have 43 points in 47 games and share the third place in Eastern Conference. So, there is a pretty big gap after Citadelles and Timber in the East. It is somehow crazy, that you can be on the third place in the Conference and at the same time ninth place in the whole league. Detroit's goal differential is -13 and Carolina's -30. Detroit don't have any elite players and even not a single player above 50 CF%. Best CF% belongs to Daedalus James (49,4%). TOP5 forwards James, Simonsson, Mihailov, Jutila and Monkey Mann Jr. have all at least 48+ CF% but after them there is a little drop. However, drop is not that big because Dolff, Murphy, Granström and Jeziak, who fulfill the TOP9 forward positions, have CF's between 46,2% and 45,0%. In defence, Bjorn Thornson and Wen Baters are clearly above anyone else with 46,6 and 46,3%. After them, drop is clear. Blouin, Giannopoulos, Iqbal and Nutcluster have CF%'s near 44% unfortunately. Even bigger problem is that Detroit have five players whose CF%'s are under 40% and can't really hold the puck at all.

Carolina is also problematic team. They are similar to Detroit because also they are without players above 50+ CF%. Vitek Vitecek is best with 47,2%. RW Murray (46,6%), C Bergen, LW Wolfe and RD O'Mc (44,8%) are next best players in this category in Carolina. After O'Mc best defencemen are Ashy Larry and Jimmy Jimmy with 43,7% and 42,9% but after them standard goes down because rest of the D's are under 40 in CF%. All Carolina's TOP5 centers have CF% above 41 but they have only six wingers in that same level so if Nevada had problems with bottom line centers, Carolina seems to have problems with bottom line wingers I guess? They have three wingers under 38 in CF%.

Newfoundland Berserkers

are on 11th place in winning percentage (40,0%). They have 40 points in 50 games. Best CF% belongs to center Lassi Suhonen (49%) so Berserkers don't have any elite corsi guys. Defenders Souppan and Kahnwald are right behind Suhonen. Argonauts prospect Podkalzone is fourth on the list with 48,2% which is solid number in my opinion in a team which is not so good this season. The whole group is pretty balanced because they have 18 players over 40+ CF% and only two under that magic border which means gap from the best players to worst ones is about 10 percentages. After Souppan and Kahnwald best defenders are Sandeen and Atake with 44+ CF%'s.

The bottom team in the standings is at the moment St. Louis Scarecrows

. Winning percentage is only 33%. They have 31 points in 47 games. Goal differential is minus 46 and St. Louis has scored only 106 goals so far which is lowest number. However, St. Louis still has some elite corsi guys because defence pair Colin Lambert and Bud Weiser are above 56% in CF. After them comes forwards Logo, Lizard, Doom, Hundertwasse, Octive and Dobrovsky who are all above 50 CF%. With that kind of CF% numbers, it is crazy that St. Louis have only scored 106 goals because they have guys who can shoot more than an opponent when they are on ice. On the other hand, defenders number 3-5 (Zidane, Dekens and David) have CF%'s of 46,3%, 45,9% and 43,6% so the gap to Lambert and Weiser is a big one on the back end. It is also worth of noting that St. Louis don't have any players under 43% so behind Lambert and Weiser this team is also pretty equal in CF% category.

In the end of this article, it is clever to look back recent seasons and check what kind of CF% numbers cup winners had in regular season. Season 56 winner was Vanvouver, season 55 Newfoundland and season 54 Carolina. Vancouver had last season 19 (!) players above 58 CF% in regular season. That is huge number and no wonder they won the cup in the end. 13 players were even above 60 CF%. Newfoundland had all 18 players above 58 CF% on a season when they won the championship title. Carolina had 11 elite corsi players on season 54 so that is least amount of players above 55 CF% in recent years but still a significant number. And if we check also season 53 when Detroit won, 19 players were above 64% in CF. I don't know if there was different kind calculation on those days but anyway Detroit's players owned places from 1 to 19 in the whole league too in CF% category on that season.

What we can learn from the history? You need to have at least 10 elite corsi guys in CF% category to win the championship. There are only two teams this season who match with that criteria. They are Anchorage Armada and Quebec City Citadelles. Colorado is third on the list with eight elite players but is eight enough? I doubt it based on history. That's why at this moment it is pretty safe to assume that either Armada Armada

or Citadelles

will win the Olympic Gold Medal but we need to remember that everything is possible in a world of sports. Thanks for reading and once again happy new year.

Words: 3238

Pythonic · 12-28-2020, 03:32 PM

Vancouver Whalers ... They don't have any elite players ... too mediocre group this season and don't have enough talent.

Hmm

Me and my friends KnockedOut ByOvechkin and Jon St. Ark would like a word.

Skeleton Party · 12-28-2020, 03:35 PM

12-28-2020, 03:32 PMPythonic Wrote: Vancouver Whalers ... They don't have any elite players ... too mediocre group this season and don't have enough talent.

Me and my friends KnockedOut ByOvechkin and Jon St. Ark would like a word.

Kick his ass, Seabass!

***Vandy*** · 12-28-2020, 03:42 PM

Boom is making a messy with the Whalers

Tongue

Salming · 12-28-2020, 03:53 PM

12-28-2020, 03:32 PMPythonic Wrote: Vancouver Whalers ... They don't have any elite players ... too mediocre group this season and don't have enough talent.

Me and my friends KnockedOut ByOvechkin and Jon St. Ark would like a word.

A player or team ranked above 55% is often considered "elite".[5].

I am sorry but stats are the only truth in this case. Smile

grok · 12-28-2020, 04:49 PM

A bit of info for your analytics: FHM's player stat exports do not split player games per team. All previously played games are added to the same, singular stat line. This can result in some anomalies in possession statistics. My player (Anchorage's Dee Centerman IV) is a great example of this. I have a low-50s CF%, but am the only player on Anchorage with a sub-59 CF% and a positive CF Rel. That's because I spent 40 games on Vancouver, where a 50 CF% would be a top 3 possession player. Since there aren't any team splits, you might come to different conclusions if you account for trades in your methodology.

Salming · 12-28-2020, 05:14 PM

12-28-2020, 04:49 PMgrok Wrote: A bit of info for your analytics: FHM's player stat exports do not split player games per team. All previously played games are added to the same, singular stat line. This can result in some anomalies in possession statistics. My player (Anchorage's Dee Centerman IV) is a great example of this. I have a low-50s CF%, but am the only player on Anchorage with a sub-59 CF% and a positive CF Rel. That's because I spent 40 games on Vancouver, where a 50 CF% would be a top 3 possession player. Since there aren't any team splits, you might come to different conclusions if you account for trades in your methodology.

Yeah, this article is not supposed to be taken too seriously because it was just one stat which I used to compare teams. I think I mentioned your situation in the text also but haven't really followed all trades which have happened.

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