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Carbine · 02-17-2020, 07:44 PM

Spreadsheet referenced in article found here: Google Docs

We're now into the final week of the SMJHL season with only a handful of games left for each team. The parity in the league this season has been incredible with seven of the ten SMJHL teams having a fighting chance at the Laurifer Trophy going into the final week. Aside from Newfoundland, Anchorage, and Halifax, the Laurifer is still up for grabs with only 6 points separating 1st from 7th. The playoffs this season are going to be very interesting indeed - the chances of an upset are going to be very high.

Not many league awards are determined using only the final regular-season statistics. Most are dependant on the Awards Committee to decide via voting who will get the shiny trophy on Awards Night, while some are dependant on the conclusion of the Playoffs before the winner is known. Today I'm going to look at the Award races for the Laurifer Trophy (1st Place at end of Regular Season; President's Trophy), and briefly touch on the Roberto Martucci Trophy (Regular Season Goal Leader; 'Rocket' Richard Trophy), and the Jared Hansen Trophy (Regular Season Point Leader; Art Ross Trophy).

Laurifer Trophy

It doesn't take a ton of effort to figure out that Carolina and Anaheim have a better chance at the Laurifer than say, Vancouver. Looking at the strength of their remaining schedules though can provide some insight into who's likely to rise or fall in the standings in the final days of the season. Using the current standings to score team strength, we can quickly compare schedules to see who's going to have an easier or harder time during the final stretch.

I calculated Strength of Schedule (SOS) by scoring teams based on current standing at the time of writing and summing the scores for each team's opponents. For example, Carolina and Anaheim each received scores of 10 due to being more or less tied in the standings at the moment. Halifax received a score of 1 due to being in last place. Lower scores mean an easier schedule.

Based on my (very simple) calculations, Carolina and Colorado appear to have the easiest schedules down the stretch with SOS Scores of 18. Kelowna has a fairly easy schedule as well with an SOS Score of 21 but they'll need a lot of games to go their way if they want to jump to 1st place. You can all the scores in the provided spreadsheet. Some highlights however:

Out of the top 7 teams, Vancouver has the highest SOS Score with 36, followed by Detroit with 35. Vancouver's result could be seen as a result of their standing at the moment but a look at who they're playing will confirm that they're an extreme longshot for the Laurifer, if it's even mathematically possible. They get Carolina and Colorado in their next two games, followed by two straight in Kelowna, finishing at home against Colorado - who could have even clinched the Laurifer by the time this game comes along.
After writing that suggestion that Vancouver is a longshot for the Laurifer, I actually went and analyzed the remaining schedules to see if there was some wacky road to the Laurifer for Vancouver. I believe it is technically possible but again, highly unlikely. They'd need a miracle. I left a road map in the spreadsheet for anyone curious.
Carolina has a great opportunity to pull away from the pack and secure the Laurifer. They have a game in hand on most teams and have a great schedule to boot. Halifax will probably have to play spoiler twice if any other team is going to catch them.
Detroit and Anaheim are going to see each other three (3!) times down the stretch. The results of these games could have massive implications for both playoff seeding and the Laurifer race. If Detroit has any hopes of winning the Laurifer, they're likely going to have to solve Anaheim 3 times to do it.
St. Louis and Kelowna are in similar spots for finding a way to win the Laurifer. They'll likely have to win out and have some teams near the top struggle during the final week as well. The Detroit/Anaheim mini-series really screws a lot of scenarios for lower-ranked teams. One of them is going to be at 61 points or more based on the results of those games alone.

All things said, I think Carolina will end up taking the Laurifer Trophy based on everything working in their favour for the moment. In my opinion, the Colorado/Carolina game to finish the sim tomorrow (Tuesday), as well as the Anaheim/Detroit mini-series over the next few days will be the games that determine the final playoff seedings and ultimately the Laurifer Trophy winner.

Hansen and Martucci Trophies

There's a number of factors that come into play when predicting award winners: Current pace, strength of competition, deployment per game, etc. Simple extrapolation can give us an idea of where players will end up if they remain on their current pace but it's impossible to give a definitive answer to who's going to win either the Hansen or Martucci Trophy.

Based on the current pace for the moment, Kaarlo Kekkonen (@dankoa) and Indigo Trevino (@Carbine) are projected to win the Hansen and Martucci Trophies respectively.

Kekkonen has lead the Detroit Falcons all year with the assistance of Cal Labovitch (@Mutedfaith) and seemingly has the Hansen locked up for the moment with a 4-point lead on Daniel Bischoff of the Anchorage Armada. The only thing working against him is the prospects of the aforementioned three games vs Anaheim to close the season. If Anaheim is turned on defensively, Kekkonen's scoring pace could stall here right at the end - allowing others to catch up. Daniel Bischoff (@dylanjj37) especially could turn it on near the end here as Anchorage's schedule is considerably easier than Detroit's. Games vs. St. Louis, Halifax, Colorado, and Newfoundland could provide opportunities to run up the score and in turn, give Bischoff a chance to eclipse Kekkonen in the final games of the season. Indigo Trevino of the Halifax Raiders could also make an unexpected run at the title as down the stretch as Halifax has a game in hand on both Detroit and Anchorage as well as having an alright schedule. Two games vs. Carolina could prove to be blowouts for the Kraken, but two vs. Newfoundland and one vs. Anchorage as previously mentioned will certainly give Trevino a small window to make up ground on Kekkonen and Bischoff. The only thing working against Trevino is his deployment: he's primarily been on the 2nd line and 2nd PP units all year. There will be some heavy lifting for sure if Trevino is going to claw his way to the top of the points leaderboard to finish the season.

As for the Martucci Trophy, Indigo Trevino has certainly surprised some with his breakout performance this season with the Halifax Raiders and goal-scoring prowess. Oddly enough, he's done all this on the 2nd forward unit for Halifax and not the top unit like other star players. He's done a good enough job running the second scoring line for the Raiders but nonetheless, the Raiders aren't expected to go must farther than the first round in playoffs this year. James Ronlain (@Rankle), on the other hand, has been the St. Louis Scarecrows go-to offensive option this season and has performed as expected as the team's best sniper. His 25 goals on the season match Indigo Trevino's and leads the Scarecrows by a decent margin as the two are neck and neck as the season winds down. St. Louis is much more of a playoff team than Halifax this season and could go on a bit of run should they get hot here at the end of the season. As for the individual scoring race, the two are both projected to get at least 27 goals but the winner could really be one of 4 or 5 guys at this point or even a combination of multiple players. Kaarlo Kekkonen and Daniel Bischoff could both eclipse Trevino and Ronlain by the time the season is over as they're sitting at 24 and 23 goals, respectively. Bischoff's linemate in Anchorage, Mitchell van der Heijden (@bluesfan55) could also surge and steal the title as well with his 22 goals currently.

Regardless, the race for the Martucci Trophy is likely going to be much closer than the race for the Jared Hansen Trophy but one thing is for sure: the final leg of the final SMJHL season in the STHS era will be an entertaining one to say the least.

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mxman991 · 02-17-2020, 08:15 PM

God your math is awful. I don't see Thicc Cheesy anywhere in this. Also, Indigo? Man that guy barely knows how to tie his own skates.

jk, nice piece man. Hope you get the Martucci!

ACapitalChicago · 02-17-2020, 08:37 PM

"Carolina has a great opportunity to pull away from the pack and secure the Laurifer. They have a game in hand on most teams and have a great schedule to boot. Halifax will probably have to play spoiler twice if any other team is going to catch them."

"All things said, I think Carolina will end up taking the Laurifer Trophy based on everything working in their favour for the moment."

monkafuckingS