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Jericson · 04-06-2020, 10:38 PM

(1825 words, plus 82 quoted from a website and 20 graphs)
Hello again,
Previously, I went over the Gradings, Offensive Gradings, and Defensive Gradings for each position on the St. Louis Scarecrows during the playoffs. With the first real-time week of the season completed, I wanted to again go through this data, but expand it beyond just the Scarecrows to each team. To begin with, I wanted to share some information that has come to my attention regarding gradings as brought to my attention by jfisherr. This information was gathered from the OOTP Development Manual under Game Rating.

Game Rating.

The most important part of this for our discussion is the following text.

“The Game Rating provides a numerical 1-100 score that measures how effectively the player performed his assigned role in a game.

Take careful note of that last sentence. Game Rating is not intended as a raw measure of the player's performance in a game relative to the other players. It's an evaluation of how well he met the expectations his team's coaches and management have for him.”

So what does this mean really? As far as my reading can tell, then it is not an overall look at how well the player performs with regards to their line-mates and opposition exactly (such as Corsi and Fenwick do) but rather how that player is performing to their role. This indicates a better display of how a player is performing based upon how they are expected to perform. So for instance, a playmaker isn’t expected to be laying big hits, so hits would be weighted differently for them compared to a power forward.

So why should we use this to analyze how teams are performing? More accurately, we will be using this to determine how a team is expected to be performing based upon their player’s performance. We will be looking at each team and how their forwards, defense, and goalies are performing relative to the league. This first part will be looking at the Eastern Conference, with part 2 looking at the Western Conference later in the week. Now, without further ado, let’s get analyzing.

Detroit Falcons Falcons

To start, we will look at the best team in the Eastern Conference, as well as the league, the Detroit Falcons. They are currently at 11-0-1 with a goal differential of 52-16 (goal differential average per game of 4.33/1.33). This has propelled them to the top of the standings, with a point differential of 8 to the next best team. But how have their players performed with respect to how they are expected to be playing?
[Image: Falcons-Team.png]

First, let’s look at the team overall. Looking at the players, we see a single player (goalie as you will see later), that is one of the outliers for overall GR. The team has a good spread of how players are performing, leaning more towards above average to great. This is especially evident when you look at the OGR and DGR where we see shifts towards the top.

[Image: Falcons-Defense.png]

Looking at their defense, they are being carried greatly by 2 defenders in OGR. These two defenders are the lone outliers for OGR, indicating that they are performing above expectations for their roles.The other defenders are on par for their OGR with ratings between 50-60. Overall, the defenders are performing above average with their overall GR being between 60-75 for most players.

[Image: Falcons-Offense.png]

On the forwards side, they have a steady spread between 50-75 in all categories. This indicates that, at best, the forwards are performing great, but not excellent, when compared to where they are expected to play.

[Image: Falcons-Goalie.png]

Their goalies, however, are playing exceptionally well. Having a goalie with a score between 80-90 puts them towards the top of all goalies and helps indicate how they have the overall ranking that the team does.

Newfoundland Berserkers

Next up, we have the second place team in the Eastern Conference. The Beserkers are sitting at 6-3-2 with a goal differential of 30-28 (goal differential per game of 2.73-2.55). They are sitting 9 points behind the Falcons with a game-in-hand on St. Louis.

[Image: NL-Team.png]

Looking at the team’s overall GR, they are being carried greatly by a single player (their starting goaltender). In addition, their DGR also has an outlier player. This, in addition to the rest of the team primarily functioning between 50-65 in all categories, indicates that the team is actually performing right around expected, except for 2 players performing much better than their role indicates they should be.

[Image: NL-D.png]

The defensive squad shows some interesting data. Overall, it looks like we have two subsets of defenseman, those performing above average (65-75) and those performing right around average (50-60). This holds true for their OGR, with a shift down to 40-60 instead. However, the team has 1 outlier and one almost outlier for DGR defenders. These players are definitely carrying above their role (including the best DGR of all defenseman).

[Image: NL-O.png]

The forwards show a very similar trend, with the majority of their players performing average versus their role (50-65) with a few players performing above average to great. There is a definite trend towards average for these players meaning they are being deployed for their roles appropriately.

[Image: NL-G.png]

As we can see even clearer here, the goalies are single handedly carrying the Berserkers. They are performing well above average for what is expected of them, despite the rest of the team primarily performing where they are expected to. When you have goaltending like this, the rest of the team can afford to perform worse and still get results.

St. Louis Scarecrows

The St. Louis Scarecrows are tied with the Berserkers at 14 points with a 6-4-2 record. They also are boasting a goal differential of 35-31 (goal differential average per game of 2.92-2.58). This record puts them on a similar pace to the Berserkers but with an extra game played they are behind them in the standings.

[Image: STL.png]

As a whole, the Scarecrows appear to have two subsets of players, those playing average to their roles, and those that are playing above average to their roles. There is a single player playing great with an overall GR of 80-85. Looking at the OGR, we also see the same average to above average spread with nobody playing extremely well. DGR is more spread with more players shifted towards above average and one player playing great compared to what is expected.

[Image: STL-D.png]

The majority of the defenders are performing average overall (between 55-60) with nobody performing poorly. The same is not true for how they are performing offensively. Their OGR is shifted much lower, primarily 40-60. This indicates that more is expected out of these defenders than what the team is getting so far. This is offset by their DGR which is pretty evenly spread between 55-75 with a single player between 80-85.

[Image: STL-O.png]

As seen with the defenders, the forwards for the Scarecrows are primarily playing average-above average.This appears to indicate that the team’s forwards are playing as expected for their roles with some performing above average-good for compared to expectations. This is true for all 3 categories.

[Image: STL-G.png]

There is definitely a trend with these goalies, with one goalie performing extremely well and another playing above average. Considering one of these goalies is a rookie, these are good indications that the team is performing right around where GR expects them to. Although, if the hotter goalie levels off the team may see a decrease in results.

Maine Timber Timber

The Maine Timber are sitting 4th in the Eastern Conference with a 3-7-1 record. This actually ties them with the 5th place Carolina Kraken, with the breaker being the goal differential. Maine sits at a goal differential of 20-32 (goal differential per game of 1.82-2.91).

[Image: MET-Team.png]

Looking at the overall team outlook, the team is actually performing pretty close to what is expected of them, with a single outlier. By looking at the fact that the single outlier is not on the OGR or DGR indicates that this is one of the team’s goalies.

[Image: MET-D.png]

The defensemen overall are separated into 2 categories, those playing average, and those playing above average overall with an even 3 players each. However, as we move towards OGR, the spread is a bit lower with all players playing average to just below average. However, their DGR indicates that half the players are playing good compared to where they are expected to. All in all, the defense squad is performing as they are expected to perform for their roles.

[Image: MET-O.png]

The forward group is performing average to above average overall with a few players playing good compared to expectations. This continues to be true through their OGR and DGR as well, with a couple players playing better on the defensive side. This seems to indicate that the players are being used appropriately by their coaches and GMs.

[Image: MET-G.png]

The shining part of the team is definitely their goalies. Both are playing great. No matter how the team in front of them plays, they are standing on their heads to perform better than they are expected to play based upon this information.

Carolina Kraken Kraken

The Carolina Kraken are sitting at last in the Eastern Conference with a record of 3-7-1, losing out to the Maine Timber with a goal differential of 26-40 (goal differential per game of 2.36-3.64). They have the worst goals against per game of the entire Eastern Conference (and the league for that matter). So let’s take a look at how they are performing GR wise.

[Image: CAR-Team.png]

The team is performing very average overall. We see no players on overall GR that are well above the rest, with the majority of them in the average range. Offensively, the team is also performing very average with a spread between 45-60 indicating that they are playing on the offensive side right around where they are expected to. Defensively, the team is also shifted towards the average range, with a couple playing above average. Overall, the team is performing as expected for the roles.

[Image: CAR-D.png]

The defensive core is playing at expectations overall with the majority of the players in the 55-60 range. However, offensively the players are performing in the 40-60 range, indicating that they are performing exactly as they should with a little wiggle room to perform better. However, on the defensive side the team is playing much better than they are offensively with a minimum rating starting at 60.

[Image: CAR-O.png]

As with the defensemen, the forwards are also performing right around where they are expected to perform. The big difference is that they are shifted up slightly in the offensive rating compared to the defenseman. This is balanced by a primary shift towards 50 for their defensive ratings.

[Image: CAR-G.png]

This is the “worst” goalie tandem we have seen in the Eastern Conference, which is intriguing because that means that they are not outperforming expectations. Of all the tandems, this one is the most likely to continue performing as they are when compared to the rest of their team and the rest of the Eastern Conference.

Overall outlook on the East is that most teams are being carried very well by their goalies.Some teams, such as Detroit, have players that are performing above where they are expected to perform. This indicates that either these players are outperforming their expectations or should be playing against better competition to even them out.

Join us next time while we analyze the Western Conference teams.

reid · 04-07-2020, 09:55 AM

Great article! Love the stats. However, now Detroit is 11-2-1 so no longer the best team in the league :(

Jericson · 04-07-2020, 10:26 AM

04-07-2020, 09:55 AMreid_sutherland Wrote: Great article! Love the stats. However, now Detroit is 11-2-1 so no longer the best team in the league :(

Yeah I started working on this (and the next one) using the data I pulled on Sunday so it is not up to date. I am hoping to actually get these out on Sundays instead so they are accurate.

Nhamlet · 04-07-2020, 02:24 PM

Enjoyed this piece. Only thing I can ask for is maybe some formatting to make each teams' data separate from each other.

Jericson · 04-07-2020, 02:29 PM

04-07-2020, 02:24 PMNhamlet Wrote: Enjoyed this piece. Only thing I can ask for is maybe some formatting to make each teams' data separate from each other.

That can definitely be done easily enough (and is actually easier for me as weird as that sounds). I will do that for the Western teams and see what people think.

*fishy* · 04-07-2020, 02:36 PM

Very good stuff Scarecrows

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