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JayWhy · 08-19-2021, 11:50 AM

JY's Expansion and Entry Draft Primer

With expansion on the way in the SMJHL a lot will be in flux for the time being for many teams. Draft preparations are under way and in the J the draft is uniquely important compared to the SHL. Juniors teams are drafting more so for need to some level, because the players they draft on Sunday will immediately join their line-up and make an impact. This isn’t something that looking ahead a few seasons is all that important, looking ahead just one season gives you a clear enough view.

The trouble these general managers face, however, is uncertainty in the SMJHL Expansion Draft which I am under the impression will be on Friday. With that in mind, I am taking a look at each team in the SMJHL and noting the players they are losing to aging out, known or potential call ups, and the best option for the expansion draft. After that, I will review how this impacts their draft board and what they may look for in the Entry Draft.

ANAHEIM OUTLAWS

Aged Out: (S57) RW - Brennan Huff
Potential Call-Ups: (S58) RW – Pavel Jeziak, (S59) C – Ryuuji Kawashima, (S59) D – Sekai Wollker, (S59) C – Bob Duncan
Best Selection Options: (S59) D – Matej Winters, (S59) RW – Jack Micro
Likely Needs: Forward

Anaheim is a team already in a bit of turmoil to a degree, with a new general manager only just taking charge after the protection lists are due it leaves the team in an awkward state. However, they should be fine as there were only a few tough decisions to be made when it came to the protection lists. Ultimately, the problem is that it boiled down to daring the expansion teams to take somebody that would be down for only one season.

In my mind, the pick is Matej Winters. After protecting Arturs Tumovs, who is likelier to be a fifth year send-down than Winters, Jonathon Hagan, Adelie de Pengu and Dobby Hintzkanen, that left Winters as the odd man out. Alaska is a fantastic user and somebody a team can really use in their locker room to help bump up the activity and set the tone. You could take the risk of Sekai Wollker, but with their higher TPE counts and being connected to Minnesota which has a lower TPE bottom pairing, they’re much more of a risk of being called up this season. As an SHL Co-GM for the New England Wolfpack, he knows how to establish a culture in a team and can be a great resource for a newer general manager to lean on. Winters, to me, is the go-to pick, even if you’ll only have him for one season most likely.

What this does for the entry draft in Anaheim though is very little. While they will need a defenseman, they likely would be planning on one anyway in the event Wollker may be called up. What Anaheim needs most is forwards, they’re guaranteed to lose Brennan Huff as he’s aged out of the league, and are guaranteed to see Pavel Jeziak called up as well. It looks like Toronto is calling up Ryuuji Kawashima, which is unsurprising as the top earner in the S59 class, and after recently being acquired in the Strom Chamberlain trade by Winnipeg, it looks like the former Anaheim General Manager is calling up Bob Duncan as well.

Anaheim is reeling up front, and probably thankful to see a defenseman go in the expansion draft in this situation. Losing two wings and two centers means they’re a prime candidate to take some forwards early and often in the S61 SMJHL Entry Draft.

ANCHORAGE ARMADA

Aged Out: (S57) RW – Tokkulu Lakkamaa, (S57) G – Yanno Rosejac, (S57) D – Michael Scotch
Potential Call-Ups: (S58) D – Gregory Goode, (S58) D – Jean-Locke Zidane, (S58) D – Bean Beanman, (S58) LW – Paul Binder, (S59) D – Jay Sink, (S59) RW – Ville Kurri
Best Selection Options: (S60) RW – Benjamin Jansson, (S59) LW – Janis Lux
Likely Needs: Everything

This team is getting hit hard, which makes sense considering they’ve been at the top for so long. At some point, what goes up must come down, and it looks like Anchorage is coming down like a ton of bricks. It’s hard to identify their specific needs because, well, they are losing so much. They’re having guaranteed call ups for four players, three players are aging out and another two that could be called up. What it looks like the most is that their defense is going to be struggling, as if every call-up that has the potential to happen does happen, they’ll be losing five of their six defensemen from this season. That is crazy turnover.

Meanwhile, the team is losing Paul Binder guaranteed, and looks like Ville Kurri is on his way to New Orleans as well. Lakkamaa was a 425 inactive, which is a hot commodity in the SMJHL, and so the team is going to be feeling that loss as well. Then we look at the expansion draft. Realistically, if this were a draft where you had to take two players from each team, Janis Lux is the second option to take easily. However, for this one, I think Benjamin Jansson is the easy option to take. While they’re only at 252 TPE as a S60, they are somebody that would be expected to go the full five-year term in the SMJHL. This means you’re selecting somebody in this case for three seasons in Jansson versus somebody in Lux who is likely only to be down for one more, maybe two if you’re lucky. Jansson is a good depth piece for a line-up, and even if you don’t end up needing them, they’re a fine trade chip as an inexpensive depth option to move for a later pick. It seems like a slam dunk pick to take Jansson here.

What this does to Anchorage now is that they’ve lost four forwards and four defensemen, and so everything is possible for them. In the draft, they’re going to just be looking for whatever the best player available is at every pick and they’ll need to be careful to use their picks wisely. The likeliest situation is for them to lean defensive, especially with the losses of Jay Sink and Valdis Vejonis on the horizon, but whatever they can get, they’ll take.

CAROLINA KRAKEN

Aged Out: N/A
Potential Call-Ups: (S58) LW – Tomas Lind, (S58) RW – Golden Face, (S59) C – Daud Ramza
Best Selection Options: (S60) G – Osada Tamura, (S59) LW – Aleks Blixstrom, (S59) D – Granny PanPan
Likely Needs: Forwards

The first team we’ve hit that doesn’t have a S57 player aging out of the league, meaning they should be pretty well intact for the coming season. They also have minimal S58 players, only two who are required to go through waivers if being sent back down. Both are forwards, and so that will be a hit to the team, but one that they should be able to easily absorb. Daud Ramza is another option that could be called up by Seattle, though unlikely, as he is one of the highest earners in the S59 draft class. Aleks Blixstroms is also a high earner, but does not appear to be at risk of a call-up at this point.

This team has intrigued all over it for the expansion draft, as while it’s great for them that they won’t be losing many players to aging out or call-ups, it does put them in a position to have more exposed than the average team in expansion. Based on my mock listing, I see three options and it is entirely up to the expansion team to decide what they value. While Osada Tamura may be an enticing pick as a goaltender that could be a five-year term player, they don’t bring a lot of locker room value. Blixstrom and PanPan are only going to be down for one more season rather than the three that you would have Tamura, but also bring a lot of experience to the locker room and can really be major players for the expansion teams in terms of building out the locker room. This is similar to the selection of Matej Winters earlier, as I believe sometimes you need to jump on the bigger personality to establish your culture first and foremost.

If it were me making the pick, I take PanPan, as looking down my list I don’t see very many good defensive options out there like them. This means Carolina has lost two forwards and a defenseman, and could potentially lose another forward. Defense won’t be a major priority with only one departure from that group, and honestly if I were them I breathe a sigh of relief at the selection of PanPan. They now have minimal spots to fill and should have no problem finding forwards early and taking a flier on a defenseman later in the draft to fill the last hole on the team.

COLORADO RAPTORS

Aged Out: (S57) C – Sonata Diamante, (S57) G – Ethan Bravo
Potential Call-Ups: (S58) C – Roboute Guilliman, (S58) D – Basil Sivart, (S58) C – Noel Blanchet, (S59) D – Angus McFife XVIII
Best Selection Options: (S59) RW – KEKW Kekkonen, (S59) LW – Jack Nishimori, (S59) LW – Artemius Nystrom
Likely Needs: Forward

This team isn’t losing a lot to aging out, though Sonata Diamante is a definite hit as somebody just off from the 425 TPE cap who was able to be a big player for them. Call-ups are definitely going to hurt, with three guaranteed, including two more centers, and one defenseman who has the potential to move up to Atlanta after the team already promoted Puddles O’Duck last season in a similar fashion. Ultimately, this team needs to be looking ahead quite a bit as even beyond the current call-ups, they have another three S58 players on their roster who will be aging out in a season.

In expansion, the pick isn’t exactly easy. There are three options that are all S59 forwards who are solid earners. Realistically, you could go for Leon Schweingruber, but that should only be an option if you get a deal from Colorado to make that pick. He’s only got one season left of eligibility and is just a 350 cap player. Kekkonen, Nishimori and Nystrom are all 425 players who will be around for the same single season timeframe. The choice then comes down to preference, ultimately Kekkonen is a general manager at the SHL level and is the pick I would make because they can bring invaluable experience and a great personal touch to the locker room. They’re a culture building piece just as much as a great player. However, NIshimori and Nystrom both are great people and I couldn’t fault anybody for taking either one in this situation.

What it will come down to is that Colorado is looking at being on some thin ice in the depth department soon. However, that should be easily fixable with a solid draft here. I think they’ll lean forward as they lose more forwards than defensemen this season, but they will be in need of two defensemen and could strike early if the right player is in the right place. Ultimately, this team has options on what they want to do and should have no problem filling their gaps.

DETROIT FALCONS

Aged Out: (S57) D – Jimmy Nutcluster, (S57) G – Tyler Avery
Potential Call-Ups: (S58) C – Kermit Murphy, (S58) LW – Yan Dolff, (S59) RW – Salzberger Lillehammersson
Best Selection Available: (S60) G – Monster the Doctor, (S60) C – Mike Doctor
Likely Needs: Everything?

This is a tricky one to map out, ultimately. Detroit does not have much available in expansion, and looks to me like a team that is heading on a downswing currently. A lot of their S60 and S61 players haven’t really developed superbly, and they look to have needs all over the board. I’ll get to their needs in a moment, though. What I see guaranteed is them losing a fairly strong defenseman in Jimmy Nutcluster and a good center in Kermit Murphy. Beyond that, Yan Dolff has recently gone inactive and may actually make it to his fifth year in the SMJHL, and Salzberger Lillehammersson is a high earner in the S59 draft class and Atlanta could make the decision to pull them up early.

They don’t appear to be losing much, but they do have clear losses. What this does mean though is that the expansion teams have their work cut out for them as well. From my mock listing, the only options really available to them are one of Dolff or Lillehammersson – which with a likely pending call up could be a major risk – a goaltender in Monster the Doctor who is at 227 TPE, or forwards where the highest TPE option is Mike Doctor at 216 and that’s the only option over 200. Realistically, if you grimaced at taking Benjamin Jansson earlier, this is going to hit way harder than that. This is why when we saw Osada Tamura, we passed knowing that later goalie options were basically just as good. Goalies are a dime a dozen, and especially in this draft coming up, so there’s not much reason to pick one in expansion. However, when that’s really the only option you’re presented with you take it. I’d lean toward Monster the Doctor here, but I wouldn’t exactly be happy about it and could see an argument for Mike Doctor for sure.

Detroit definitely has needs. They were able to protect all of their defensemen with their four protection slots, but that means they need two defensemen. They lose probably two forwards to call-ups and potentially another to expansion, but after that only have five who are over 250 TPE. This team has a lot of needs it looks like, and that’s fine, they appear to have taken a lot of shots in S61 and while many missed, that’s the nature of the business. I can’t pinpoint one thing that they distinctly need, however, because of it. I expect to see them doing another shotgun approach and just trying to take the best player available at every pick.

KELOWNA KNIGHTS

Aged Out: (S57) C – Cian McFelter
Potential Call-Ups: (S58) LW – Gerry Atrick, (S58) LW – Danny C
Best Selection Available: (S61) D – Adriano Donini
Likely Needs: Forward

This is a pretty obvious choice. Kelowna just finished up what I would consider season one of effectively a rebuild. While J team rebuilds are something that have a fairly quick turnaround and shouldn’t see them at the bottom of the totem pole for long, what it does is set them up perfectly for expansion as they don’t have many players to potentially lose. Realistically, they have the slots to protect all of their S60 and S61 picks who hit and should probably be turning a corner either this season or next thanks to that. They do have some concerns, of course, as they have a lot of weak depth, but that is something that can be easily changed in the coming draft.

Expansion teams really don’t have much to think about here, because the pick becomes obvious. There aren’t many good defensemen available in expansion this season, and when you have the option to get a 224 TPE defenseman, who is inactive and can be a five-year player, you should jump on it. Especially when the alternative is probably a 194 TPE goaltender or a 174 TPE forward. They just don’t have much to really work with here. This pick comes down to the KISS method, so don’t overcomplicate things for yourself. This is a player that can play four seasons for you if you need it, and can be a trade chip as a depth piece for a contender sometime.

Kelowna does still have needs. They lose three forwards to aging out or call-ups this season, and lose a defenseman to the expansion draft. The defense shouldn’t be the biggest issue as they do have a solid top four in place, but that forward group starts to weaken sharply after the top-6, with sub-200 TPE players weaving all throughout. While they could target a defenseman in the early stages to solidify that back end, I think they’re more likely to jump on some forward options and try to make a splash there.

MAINE TIMBER

Aged Out: N/A
Potential Call-Ups: N/A
Best Selection Available: (S61) C – Alexis Paquette, (S59) D – Janne Virtanen, (S59) G – Bloody Oath
Likely Needs: More High End Talent

Nobody aging out, nobody who absolutely needs to be called up this season. I mean, what even is this?! How am I supposed to take up a lot of space and write a lot of words about literally nothing happening? This is anarchy. Maine is in a position that is enviable, with consistency from season to season and a young team that is growing together. They can only lose one player here, and while it would have been a difficult decision had Philip Demitra stuck around, it ultimately became pretty easy for them to make their protection list.

This is the debate for the expansion teams, however. They could go the route of defense or goaltender here, but let’s be honest, why would you? Paquette is a 260 TPE player who is just starting their eligibility and at the very least will be on the team for three seasons versus Virtanen or Oath who are most likely only down for one more, maybe two for Oath. Like I said before, goaltenders are a dime a dozen and especially in this deep draft of them, so there isn’t a need to really jump on one in expansion. Defense is weaker in this expansion draft, but one season of Virtanen versus three seasons of Paquette is a pretty easy debate to have. Nobody is going all in off of six picks in the expansion draft so it would be poor planning and execution to try and take the one that isn’t going to be around past a season.

With Maine, it’s kind of the waiting game at this point. They have two first round picks in this draft, and a lot of great young players who are reaching their caps whether it be 425 or 350. If Paquette goes in expansion, which is all but guaranteed, we should see them consider some offense early to fill in the spots of both Paquette and Ida-Mae Mann. If Virtanen somehow goes, they may have to turn their attention to defense as they’ll be short Demitra and Virtanen for the long-term. Either way, they’re taking big impact players who can be huge for them in the next four seasons and it should be expected that they’ll be pretty successful at it.

NEVADA BATTLEBORN

Aged Out: (S57) D – Rude Sniff
Potential Call-Ups: (S60) D – Maxwell Carrigan
Best Available Selections: (S60) LW – Jimmy Larkin-Conway, (S60) LW – Anton Harrier
Likely Needs: Defense

Nevada is looking at losing two defensemen this season, as Carrigan is on the way up and Sniff is aging out of the SMJHL. Honestly, I struggled to find a way to protect as many defensemen as they have protection slots for. It seems like a team that definitely has the group up front in their S61 picks alone, but could use some more help on the back-end quickly. Other than that, they don’t have much to talk about. They’re in a similar boat to Maine, just waiting on the kids to grow up and hit their TPE caps to start really challenging for the Cup.

What this leaves is a pretty clear discussion for the expansion teams. Nevada will have to choose between Larkin-Conway or Harrier to protect, and the other should be the one to go. They’re both young players, with at least two more seasons of eligibility left and potentially three if they do end up as five-year players. Both are good additions to a locker room, as Grapehead was a previous general manager in the SHL and Harrier is known to be a big locker room personality that can help bump up activity significantly. Ultimately, the choice is made for them by Nevada based on who gets protected. This one feels pretty simple.

The team definitely needs defense, even with likely losing a forward to expansion. They may grab a later forward option, but the team doesn’t have a first round pick and their goaltender faced the most shots against last season so it feels like a pretty obvious choice. They’ll jump on the highest defenseman on the board at their pick, and they should do it at just about every pick they have to fill out that side as much as possible.

NEWFOUNDLAND BERSERKERS

Aged Out: N/A
Potential Call-Ups: (S58) D – Billy Brooks, (S58) C – Ric Charlesworth, (S58) LW – Jesse Trudeau, (S58) D - Shion Okamoto, (S58) RW – Nike Kickz Jr, (S58) RW – Leon Athanasios, (S59) D – Aleksanders Balcers, (S59) LW – Robert E. O. Speedwagon, (S59) C – Robert Black, (S59) RW – Slavakov Vladimirashenko
Best Available Selections: (S59) G – Evgeni Petrov
Likely Needs: Everything

Have you ever seen a team that is very clearly entering a rebuild? Well, now you have. Newfoundland should be alright this season, but after having a basically legendary team last season they’re not going to be doing it again this time around. They graduate a lot of players to the SHL level, and there’s even a few who could but appear not to be heading up. This is a work in progress season where realistically, Newfoundland will be carried by the top line of Speedwagon, Black and Vladimirashenko while they try to rebuild in the bottom lines for another big run in the next three or four seasons.

What this leaves is an impossible situation for the expansion teams, as they have the choice between realistically two players. There’s Travis Konecny, who is a S58 in his last season of eligibility, or Evgeni Petrov. This is another example of why I said we will ignore goalies everywhere we can, once again you have a team that just doesn’t give you another true option. Petrov is also likely entering his final season, so it wouldn’t be the worst case scenario to consider Konecny knowing you’ll get a goaltender in the draft, but between an active and an inactive when it’s just one season, you should take the active who will add to the locker room environment long term.

Meanwhile, Newfoundland is in a world of hurt with so many people going up. They have some high-end talents as mentioned above, but they only have seven forwards and three defensemen on their roster currently and so that’s a lot of openings. This is the price you pay for going all in for a season, and they got the reward. But now in the draft they’re just going to be trying to get every single person they can. They are a team with two first round picks, and they have shown successful at landing those picks so expect to see some great talents brought in to Newfoundland in this draft.

QUEBEC CITY CITADELLES

Aged Out: (S57) C – Kian Hamilton Jr, (S57) RW – Mikael Koskinen
Possible Call-Ups: (S58) RW – Mew Two, (S58) RW – Brian Davenport, (S58) D – Kappa Kappa
Best Available Selections: (S61) RW – Jeff Hopkins, (S61) RW – Porg Garros, (S60) RW – Hail Bingus, (S59) LW – Big Boss
Likely Needs: Forward

A couple of aging out forwards, which is fine. They were good 425 cap pieces for their competitive period. Mew Two and Davenport likely being called up, and Kappa as a possible option, means at least four forward spots open and potentially one defensive spot. Kappa is also entering their last season of eligibility, so it may be good to be planning ahead on that. I had a bit of a hard time judging what their protection list would be as they have Big Boss as a 425 cap player, which is great for the team and they have Hail Bingus over 300 TPE, but could use those spots to protect Hopkins or Garros as well. So the available picks may be a bit wonky here because I can’t really tell what they’d do.

If I were setting this, I would protect Hopkins and Big Boss, leaving Garros and Bingus out there. That leaves the expansion teams with a tough choice to make. Garros is only 232 TPE, Bingus is 315. However, neither appears to be active at this point, and so the choice is going to be if you think you can get Garros to come around to update or if you want the higher TPE player in Bingus who has one less season left in the J. I would probably take Bingus in this situation, when choosing between the two actives, the higher TPE I think will make a difference. If it were closer, like a 300 to a 250 TPE player with one extra season, I would probably lean toward the 250, but this is a big enough gap to make it worthwhile.

From there, Quebec has lost now five forwards heading into the season and so they definitely need to jump on that. They have a pretty strong defense forming, and while they need one more defenseman, it shouldn’t be the priority. Their biggest area of weakness will be at forward, and I fully expect them to jump at them early and often to replace all of those new holes.

ST. LOUIS SCARECROWS

Aged Out: (S57) C – Victor Fedorov, (S57) D – Robert Feltersnatch
Likely Call-Ups: (S58) RW – Friedensreich Hundertwasser, (S58) RW – Greg Davies, (S58) LW – Jonny Tsunami, (S58) D – Daryl Urquhart, (S59) D – Dane von Gucci, (S59) C – Miguel Hefeweizen
Best Available Selection: (S58) LW – Hunter Sharpe, (S59) C – Brent Ashe
Likely Needs: Forward

Well, there’s quite a few good players heading up this season or next. It is possible to see Gucci or Hefeweizen go up, but I think doubtful that we see it happen. What is definitely happening is they’ll lose four forwards and two defensemen, so they could go any which way with the draft out of here already. The expansion protection list was a bit easier for them as they really were able to protect all of their younger players and just have to risk players that have about one season left and that puts the expansion teams in a tough position.

There are not many options when you look at the options available from them. You can choose from an inactive Hunter Sharpe in his last season as a 425 cap player, or you can take a S59 with two seasons left in Brent Ashe who is 219 TPE and so a major downside there. Realistically, this is the easiest option to take. You pull Sharpe and use him to help the team this season and maybe try to sell him as a rental at the trade deadline.

It was a pretty easy one to go over here, so I apologize for the shorter write-up St. Louis, but this is a clear choice situation. Now moving forward there’s five forward spots open and two defense. They’re going to have to go hard in the draft, but I expect to aim for forwards early since others are as well and then grab those defenders when you can get them. Though it does lend to the question of do you take the top defenseman over the say fifth best forward? Good debate to have.

VANCOUVER WHALERS

Aged Out: N/A
Potential Call-Ups: (S58) D – Luc Blouin, (S58) D – Narboza Manyhands, (S58) C – Ako Zile, (S59) RW – Alexis Saint-Michel, (S59) D – Sven Svechnikov
Best Available Selections: (S59) C - Makrus Jager, (S59) RW – Robot Sunfish, (S59) RW – Strawberry Sailfish, (S59) D – Dara McQuick
Likely Needs: Defense

This is a hard list to make, as Vancouver has a lot of great options for protection and for expansion exposure. What ultimately is happening here is that they’ll guaranteed lose two defensemen, potentially a third and so this is a pretty clear one of what they need to do. The question realistically is if Svechnikov is going up or not, at which point the protection list can be a bit tougher for expansion teams as McQuick is taken off.

If the list goes as I anticipate with Svechnikov being protected, to me the pick to make is Dara McQuick. I’ve repeated multiple times how defense is a tough find in this draft, and so it continues here. You could go after Jager or Sunfish, getting an active for the locker room, but ultimately they’re only going to be there for one season. That could be a great option to have, but McQuick being an option that can last two seasons while being over 300 TPE and in a position of weakness would be a major addition to have. I can see the argument the other way, and would take Sunfish otherwise, but to me I would grab the defenseman as quick as possible.

That leaves Vancouver losing three defensemen and another in Svechnikov going out next season. Vancouver is going to be jumping on defensemen quickly, and there should be a lot of them available with so many teams needing forward help more. This is a good, deep team, but their defense is going to struggle a bit early and could be the difference for them in the long run.

That’s it, and I come in just under the word cap. I hope you enjoyed this review as much as I enjoyed making it, I will see if I can get a mock expansion draft and review of the expansion teams done soon and will continue working on more articles soon. Thank you for reading and have a great day!

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An old man's dream ended. A young man's vision of the future opened wide. Young men have visions, old men have dreams. But the place for old men to dream is beside the fire.