4012 words, this is what I subject myself to when you kill me in werewolf so stop doing that ok
A new season is upon us and that means we all had the opportunity to make a total stab in the dark in an attempt to get lucky and earn TPE by predicting the result of a fickle sim engine. After some frustrating time spent trying to pull the predictions in the most efficient manner that required the least manual cleaning I was able to compile the authoritative, aggregated SHL prediction data.
But before we dive into that, first some shoutouts:
-Everyone: for not using the same submission syntax which gave me stage 2 melanoma
-Almost everyone: for expanding my mind to creative and unique spellings of names of SHL legends
-Everyone: for only having 1 style of misspelling for "Kurczewski" (Kurcewski), I was expecting far worse
-The 15 brave souls who chose someone besides Danny Foster for the Turd Ferguson: this may be your year
-The 83 of you who had unique predictions
- <a href='index.php?showuser=2245' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-13'>Grapehead</a> for having the most copied prediction (27 copies)
- <a href='index.php?showuser=1286' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-13'>r1c3bowl22</a> for having the 2nd-most copied prediction (19 copies)
- <a href='index.php?showuser=1891' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-3'>Dangles13</a> (15), <a href='index.php?showuser=2077' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-30'>ej27</a> (14), and <a href='index.php?showuser=1625' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-66'>aumicc83+</a> (12) for also reaching double digit copies - particularly aumicc83+ for reaching double digits after posting on page 9 while the top 3 all had posts on the 1st page and ej27 had the top post on page 2
Anyway, let's go.
<div align="center">The Turd Ferguson Trophy
Most Penalty Minutes</div>
1. Danny Foster (184)
2. Clint Eastwood (7)
3. John Grossman (6)
T-4. Maria Maximova (1)
T-4. Mia Landvik (1)
Obviously Foster is the heavy favorite with 184 of 200 people predicting him to win his 5th straight Ferguson and 7th in the past 8 seasons as he comes off a 128 PIM season but a few risk-takers have backed other candidates. After a slow start saw him accumulate just 8 PIM in his first 6 games he came on strong in the most recent sim, shooting up to 21 PIM and now sitting in 3rd place.
Eastwood improved his Discipline to 71 this offseason but still received 7 predictions. He's only earned 2 PIM so far in 7 games this season but there's plenty of time to go. [ed. note: GOOD JOB CLINT STAY OUT OF THE BOX]
Grossman led the SMJHL in PIM last season with 139 minutes and is starting his SHL career with 40% ice time on Toronto, which should afford him the opportunity to give Foster a run for his money. Grossman backers have to be feeling good at this early point as he sits in 2nd with 22 PIM.
Maximova only racked up 44 PIM last season and after regressing from 69 to 65 Checking didn't look a likely challenger and is currently sitting outside the top 10 with 9 PIM.
Landvik was the player who interrupts Foster's streak back in S34 and could conceivably beat him out this season after finishing 3rd, 4th, 8th, and 2nd in the seasons since. Landvik only regressed a single point in Checking this offseason (99 to 98) and currently has 6 PIM.
After just 7 games Joe Kurczewski of Calgary leads the Ferguson race with a whopping 29 PIM - 7 more than Grossman, his nearest competitor.
<div align="center">The Sergei Karpotsov Trophy
Most Points</div>
1. Zach Evans (100)
2. Joe Kurczewski (44)
3. Jason Visser (33)
4. Chris York (19)
T-5. Corey Bearss, Kyle Kylrad, Mikko Linna, and Sebastian Strange (1 each)
Evans enters Season 39 as the clear favorite to repeat as the points leader coming off a 65 point season. This is a logical choice as he hasn't entered regression yet and has kept a similar spot in the depth chart - plus it doesn't hurt that Season 35 was the last time the Jets didn't lead the SHL in scoring. So far he has 10 points in 8 games which is a nice start but sees him well off the pace for now.
The aforementioned Kurczewski led the challengers with 44 predictions after a 46 point season and, like Evans, no regression to pull him back. Retaining his first line center and power play quarterback roles (he was 6th in the SHL in power play shots last season) should provide him with plenty of opportunity to challenge for the points crown. His time in the penalty box has hampered his scoring thus far as he has just 5 points in 7 games.
Visser, Winnipeg's first line center, finds himself in a respectable third with 33 predictions. Like the first two players, Visser has a prominent role on a great team and hasn't entered regression yet. He was a distant 4th on the Jets in scoring last season but 54 points is nothing to scoff at as he was held back by a 8.5% shooting percentage. If he can find twine a little more often this season he could very well find himself atop the points list come Game 50 but he's sitting at "just" 8 points in 8 games so far.
The proverbial big fish in a little pond, York's 19 backers have to feel pretty smart right now after watching him score 16 points in his first 8 games after putting up 56 last season. He almost certainly won't continue to score at this pace but being tied for 1st, even this year, is a very nice position. The only player receiving multiple votes not from the Season 31 draft, York is entering his prime and looks poised to challenge for the Karpotsov for seasons to come.
A possibly surprising challenger has emerged in Alexis Metzler of Buffalo who has already scored 13 points from the blue line and is sitting in 2nd place behind York. On a poor Buffalo team, Metzler managed to tally 42 points last season and may have been overlooked because of it but with Buffalo's hot start he's surely got people's attention now.
<div align="center">The Jay McDonald Trophy
Goals leader</div>
1. Zanarkand Abes (61)
2. Zach Evans (51)
3. Corey Bearss (27)
4. Joe Kurczewski (17)
5. Sebastian Strange (15) others receiving votes: Chris York (12), Randy Randleman (8), Jason Visser (3), Kyle Kylrad (2), Louie Garrett (2), Conklin Owen (1), Trevor Wilson (1)
Fresh off winning the Aidan Richan Trophy for Breakout Star, Abes has inspired a groundswell of support to predict him to finish Season 39 as the league leader in goals. He finished last season just outside the top 10 with 22 goals and as he and the team around him continue to rapidly improve, look for him to take a big step forward this season. Though he has just 2 goals in 8 games thanks in part to bad luck, he's 4 goals back of the leader, certainly within striking distance in a statistic as volatile as goals.
Evans has 3 goals so far and scored 27 last year, which had him tied for 3rd. Otherwise, see above.
Bearss is coming off a 20 goal season but you honestly can't go wrong with one of Winnipeg's star forwards. Bearss is off to an encouraging start so far with 4 goals despite getting no power play time. That may hold him back in the long run but for now he's very much in the hunt.
Kurczewski - also see above. Off to a slow start this season with just 1 goal but should bounce back as he finished 7th last season with 25.
The defending McDonald winner, Strange checks in with the 5th most predictions as predictors seem to expect a minor slow down due to regression. So far, though, he's matched his 29 goal pace from last season with 4 goals in 7 games and considering he's tied for 4th in shots, the goals should keep coming in for the Minnesota forward.
Damien Wert of San Francisco is currently setting the SHL pace in goals as he's scored 6 in 7 games. He's likely due for some regression as he's currently shooting north of 26% but you never know. Kristian Eriksson (TOR), Ivan Koroviev (BUF), Dieter Dominique (NEW), and Chris York (TOR) have also scored 6 goals but have done so in one more game than Wert.
<div align="center">The Mike Honcho Trophy
Lowest GAA</div>
1. Olli O'Koivu (99)
2. Artom Zhumbayev (45)
3. Jeff Kirkstone (30)
4. Michael McFadden (16)
5. Mikke Laukkanen (5) others receiving votes: Timo Haas (2), Beaujeaux Biscuit (1), Jason Aittokallio (1), Richard C. Hocolate (1)
O'Koivu returns behind a sturdy Chiefs defense after finishing second in the Honcho race last season. Not much to say, really, goalies are voodoo. It's still way too early for goalie numbers to stabilize but O'Koivu is currently sitting 5th with a 3.11 GAA. O'Koivu is one of 3 goaltenders in the top 5 to win a Honcho, doing so in Season 35.
Backstopping what is likely to be the best team in the league, Zhumbayev had decent backing likely based on the fact that the other team can't score if they're constantly fishing the puck out of their own net. So far, so good as he leads the league in GAA with a 1.73.
The defending Honcho winner, Kirkstone looks to lead San Francisco back to the playoffs after a miracle run last season. He's currently sitting in 4th with a 3.00 but look for that to lower as the defense in front of him continues developing.
A major part of Edmonton's offseason moves to contend for a championship, McFadden received solid support in the goaltending category predictions but so far has struggled as the Season 37 Honcho winner currently sits in 8th with a 3.27 GAA - but will almost certainly improve that number as the season progresses.
With 5 predictions, somewhat surprising considering they're the goalie for one of the best teams in the league, Laukkanen has experience contending for the Honcho, finishing second in Seasons 33 and 36. The Wolfpack are off to a somewhat slow start, though, allowing 27 goals in 8 games, as Laukkanen currently sits in 11th place.
Jordin FourFour Jr. (BUF) and Mark Harter (TOR) are both pleasant surprises in the early Honcho race, sitting 2nd and 3rd respectively behind Zhumbayev, for opposite reasons. FourFour is in his sophomore campaign and is still developing while Harter is entering the twilight of his career in his like 13th or 14th season? The easily accessible indices don't go back that far.
<div align="center">The Ron Mexico Trophy
League MVP (Committee)</div>
1. Zach Evans (74)
2. Jason Visser (59)
3. Mikko Linna (29)
4. Joe Kurczewski (24)
5. Geronimo Otto (5) others receiving votes: Chris York (2), Sebastian Strange (2), Corey Bearss (1), Cory Knouse (1), Jonathan Lundberg (1), Lord Vader (1), Pietra Volkova (1)
It's hard to judge the state of the Mexico race at this point but Evans, Visser, and Kurczewski have all been covered and all still look like great choices as they have a good chance of being the best player on the best team in the league.
If West Kendall can go from playoff spectator to contender to the top seed in the East, Linna should get some deserved attention. Linna has 8 points in 8 games but the Platoon are languishing outside the playoff bubble for now.
An interesting choice with 5 predictions is Otto, who tallied 58 points last season for the President's Trophy winners as he watched his goalie Jeff Kirkstone take home the Mexico. Otto will almost surely lead the Pride in points again this season (though he's currently 2nd) and if the Pride prove that they're serious contenders he should definitely get some consideration.
Currently, of course, I have to imagine that York is the front runner as he's on pace for a 100 point season and has Toronto in a playoff spot.
<div align="center">The John McBride Trophy
Best Goalie</div>
1. Olli O'Koivu (95)
2. Michael McFadden (43)
3. Artom Zhumbayev (41)
4. Jeff Kirkstone (5)
T-5. Jason Aittokallio (4)
T-5. Mikke Laukkanen (4)
T-5. Timo Haas (4) others receiving votes: Jay Bae (3), Beaujeaux Biscuit (1)
Not much to add on here that wasn't covered in the Honcho section (I think Season 30 was the only time since Season 22 that the Honcho and McBride went to different goalies) so I'll just list the goalies' save percentages thus far:
1. Artom Zhumbayev (WIN) - 0.935
2. Mark Harter (TOR) - 0.931 -> Season 27 McBride winner
3. Jordin FourFour Jr. (BUF) - 0.925
4. Olli O'Koivu (MIN) - 0.913 -> Season 35 McBride winner
5. Georgette Pel (TEX) - 0.911
6. Timo Haas (LAP) - 0.906 -> Season 34 McBride winner
7. Jay Bae (HAM) - 0.897
8. Richard C. Hocolate (CGY) - 0.897
9. Jeff Kirkstone (SFP) - 0.894 -> Season 38 McBride winner
10. Michael McFadden (EDM) - 0.894
11. Beaujeaux Biscuit (WKP) - 0.888
12. Jason Aittokallio (MAN) - 0.885
13. Mikke Laukkanen (NEW) - 0.873
14. Ekaterina Rudnikova (SEA) - 0.861
<div align="center">The Scott Stevens Trophy
Best Defenseman</div>
1. Max Weber (110)
2. Jasper Clayton (31)
3. Noctis Caelum (18)
4. Adam Kaiser (16)
5. Zander Rhys (6) others receiving votes: Felix Herzog (5), Lord Vader (5), Ben Dover (2), Mia Landvik (2), Alonzo Garbanzo (1), Ludwig Koch Schroder (1), Matthew Leetch (1), Wyatt Wollker (1)
We've gone three straight seasons without the defenseman points leader winning the Stevens but it's still very rare for someone outside the top 3 to win (I think Bubba Nuck in Season 36 is the only one since Season 29 (if I can trust that index, it looks sketchy)) so we'll base the current standings on points.
Weber is fresh off a Stevens nomination as he finished 3rd in defensemen points last season and he looks well on his way to another as the overwhelming predictions favorite thanks to tallying 8 points so far, tying him for 3rd.
Clayton is the defending Stevens winner after finishing in 2nd in defensemen scoring by a single point last season. The veteran defenseman is off to a decent start with 6 points in 8 games but the gaudy starts by some other players makes that pale in comparison.
Caelum tallied 49 points last season, tied for fourth among defensemen, and many thought he deserved a Stevens nomination. Unfortunately he's off to a slow start this season with just 3 points and 0 goals but once he starts lighting the lamp he should climb back into the race.
Checking in at 10th in defensemen points last season, Kaiser looks to build on that number as he bumps up to the 1st power play unit. He's seized the opportunity so far as he's already tallied 10 points and trails only Metzler.
His teammate Rhys led defensemen in points last season but he goes from being top dog in Toronto to a much more crowded blue line in Hamilton. He certainly has the talent to compete for the Stevens and will have the opportunity but he and Kaiser may split votes if it comes down to it. In any case, Rhys currently has 5 points and will look to build on that.
As mentioned, Metzler already has 13 points as Buffalo sits atop the East, 3 points clear of the 2nd place Chiefs. He likely won't shoot 15.4% all season but he's already banked a good amount of points to keep him in the Stevens conversation for the foreseeable future. And if he continues to punish teams on the power play (5 points in 34(!! minutes through 8 games) this could turn into a runaway.
<div align="center">The Ryan Jesster Trophy
Best Rookie</div>
1. Jack Tanner (94)
2. Bobby Watson (72)
3. Blabar Bananerstrom (13)
4. Dionyz Vyskoc (10)
5. TJ Bayley (6) others receiving votes: Inari Twain (3), Alexander Zajac (1), Johnny Yuma (1)
Like the Stevens, the Jesster usually comes down to names at the top of the rookie scoring list. In fact aside from Season 31 and 32 when goalies won the award, since Season 28 (the earliest easily accessible index) the winner of the Jesster has always finished either 1st or 2nd in rookie scoring. Naturally, the role a rookie slots into plays a huge part in this.
Tanner garnered the most support in predictions despite coming off a thoroughly unspectacular SMJHL season. That said, he has the odd situation of coming into the defending President's Trophy winners and slotting straight into their top 4 and their top power play unit. If the Pride can come close to replicating their performance last season, there's a good chance Tanner gets a Jesster nomination. So far he's sitting at 4 points, all assists, and tied for 4th in rookie scoring. He's also really, really, ridiculously good looking.
Watson, too, jumped straight onto the second line and put the league on notice during the preseason putting up an insane 19 points in 22 games. While he likely won't score at quite that pace during the regular season he's shown he clearly has the skill to take the Jesster home. He, too, has 4 points and is tied with Tanner for 4th - though with one more game played.
Basically everything in the previous paragraph goes for Bananerstrom, too. He and Watson will be linemates at 5v5 and on the power play and he, too, scored 19 points this preseason. He's coming off a season of absolutely torching the SMJHL to the tune of 53 points and 28 goals and will look to translate that to the SHL. He's currently tied for 6th with 3 points.
After taking home a wheelbarrow-load of trophies at the SMJHL Awards, Vyskoc has his eyes set on yet another this season. Unfortunately for him, as it stands now he's at a disadvantage as he likely will get considerably less ice time than the three rookies above playing on West Kendall's third line and second power play unit. Indeed, in the preaseason he averaged 3-5 minutes less than his chief competitors. All is not lost, however, as lines are fluid but with just 1 point in his first 8 games he'll need to turn that around in a hurry to keep pace.
One of four rookie skaters for the Stampede, Bayley has been a major contributor for the first-place Stampede with 6 points, tied for second among rookies. Like Vyskoc, he doesn't have the same time on ice benefits the first three rookies have but if he keeps scoring like this it's hard to imagine he'll be on the lower lines for long.
The only rookie who's scored more points than Bayley is his linemate, Kevin Marks, who's registered 8 points already - 2 clear of Bayley and Alexander Zajac of Seattle. As long as Buffalo is scoring at this torrid pace, Bayley and Marks should be firmly in the Jesster race.
On the other end of the spectrum, Zajac's 6 points look more impressive than the other rookies' considering the Riot have only managed 23 goals in 8 games, 2nd lowest in the league. Shouldering the load as their 1st line center at 5v5 and on the power play, Zajac could be a dark horse to take home the Jesster.
<div align="center">The Jeff Dar Trophy
Best Two-Way Forward</div>
1. Joe Kurczewski (75)
2. Chris York (48)
3. Zach Evans (34)
4. Sebastian Strange (18)
5. Kyle Kylrad (8) others receiving votes: Maximilian Wachter (6), Kelly Rivet (4), Mike Izzy (2), Brett Kennedy (1), Corey Bearss (1), Jason Visser (1), Pietra Volkova (1), Trevor Wilson (1)
To be honest I don't know what the committee looks for in Dar nominees since we really don't have any good defensive metrics available in STHS. I expected them to consider nonsense like faceoffs and +/- :nauseous: like they do for the Selke but the last several winners haven't finished in the top 10 in +/- so thank you committee for that. Faceoffs don't appear to be much of a factor either as Linna didn't finish in the top 10 in Season 37. Points look like somewhat of a factor as Evans last season and Randleman in Season 36 led the league in points - I guess the best defense is a good offense?
Anyway the top 4 were common predictions for MVPs, etc so we'll ignore them. Kylrad, however, is a new name. Appearing in the "others receiving votes" section for a few awards, Kylrad cracks the top 5 here as he makes the move the Winnipeg to play with Evans and Crossfit Jesus. Last season with Seattle, Kylrad scored 46 points, had 124 hits, blocked 12 shots, and killed 122 minutes of penalties. In 8 games so far, he's scored 10 points, has 21 hits, blocked 3 shots, and killed 10 minutes of penalties. Those are pretty nice stat lines so seems like a worthy prediction to me :shrug:.
For what it's worth (nothing) Linna and Evans are in the top 3 for Faceoff Percentage.
<div align="center">The Sarmad Khan Trophy
League MVP (fans)</div>
1. Zach Evans (61)
2. Jason Visser (42)
3. Max Weber (36)
4. Joe Kurczewski (33)
5. Ronnie Westbrook (13) others receiving votes: Ace Redding (4), Felix Herzog (4), Randy Randleman (2), Sebastian Strange (2), Jon Ross (1), Lord Vader (1), Pietra Volkova (1)
For what may appear at first glance like a wide-open race, it's really just people trying to guess which Winnipeg Jet will win the award. Yeah so basically what I said for the Mexico since 3 of the 5 are the same and Max Weber got some love in the Stevens section.
Speaking of love, Ronnie Westbrook. One of the best guys around and if the Steelhawks take the step to serious contenders this season I can easily see the fans voting Westbrook MVP. He's their workhorse, leading forwards in time on ice and points with 7 as well as chipping in on special teams.
Top 4 teams by total predictions:
WPG - 734
MIN - 252
CGY - 206
LAP - 206 Full table here
And the top 5 players:
Zach Evans - 320
Olli O'Koivu - 194
Joe Kurczewski - 193
Danny Foster - 184
Max Weber - 146 Full table here
Some notes:
1. Astute (nerdy) readers may have noticed that there were 200 predictions for every award except the Ferguson and Stevens which both had 199. One person left the Ferguson blank (oops) and one person had 2 names for the Stevens (oops).
2. The index updated while I was in the middle of this so while I think I went back and fixed all the stats there may be some stragglers that haven't been updated.
3. The entire above article is premature bullshit 7 to 8 games into a season and nothing outside of the prediction counts should be taken with any degree of seriousness.
4. Also wtf at the bonkers scoring so far this season. We've gone from 6.16 goals per game in Season 36 to 5.97 in 37 to 6.30 in 38 and now we're at 6.56 to start 39. It'll be interesting to see how that holds up over the course of the season.
5. Deal with the ugly red squigglies under weirdo names.
Quote:Originally posted by Beaver@Feb 2 2018, 02:22 AM
To be honest I don't know what the committee looks for in Dar nominees since we really don't have any good defensive metrics available in STHS. I expected them to consider nonsense like faceoffs and +/- :nauseous: like they do for the Selke but the last several winners haven't finished in the top 10 in +/- so thank you committee for that. Faceoffs don't appear to be much of a factor either as Linna didn't finish in the top 10 in Season 37. Points look like somewhat of a factor as Evans last season and Randleman in Season 36 led the league in points - I guess the best defense is a good offense?
yeah im with ya on this...
IMO the best 2 way forward starts with a strong offensive season.
But on defense i think the stat to start with is 'hits'...Hitting is a true defensive stat which can be broken down into positive defensive results by looking over how many of that players hits resulted in the offensive player losing the puck after the hit.
Also, hits in conjunction with a low PIM rate should be a factor. The more aggressive you are the higher your PIMs will be... but you dont want to reward reckless play out there... a high hit/low PIM ratio means the player is out there with a controlled agression, making solid defensive plays without putting his team on the PK. Team stats can be a factor as well by looking at a players +- and PK numbers and if there play has made a positive contribution to those areas of the game.
I think the awards committee gets the winner of this award right every season, but there have been some strange nominees for the Dar. SHL awards are always points based.. but id like to see this specific award be the one category that recognizes the 60 or more players in the SMJHL/SHL who compete for the whole 200 feet of the rink.
Quote:Originally posted by Coach Biz@Feb 2 2018, 01:52 AM
I think the awards committee gets the winner of this award right every season, but there have been some strange nominees for the Dar. SHL awards are always points based.. but id like to see this specific award be the one category that recognizes the 60 or more players in the SMJHL/SHL who compete for the whole 200 feet of the rink.
Nice post
WARNING: Long post ahead.
The biggest problem with this logic in particular, honestly, is Simon T. Yes, as Beaver mentioned, there are very few defensive statistics we can look at to measure who plays a "200 foot game." Perhaps even more importantly (and less discussed in the context of awards) than that is just how important defense is as an attribute in Simon T. If you're leading the league in scoring in the SHL, you almost certainly have 90 defense, and 90 (if not 95-99) puck handling which factors into shot blocking.
At that point, you're only differentiation is "who hits," and most of the players who have enough TPE to max out have dumped, at a minimum, enough TPE to get checking up a fair bit to give them the hits as well. So the really good "defensive" players are also going to be your best offensive players. There's really no way around it. You can't build a good goal-scorer in Simon T with bad defense, so your "MVP" candidate forwards will always be your Dar front-runners.
The only way you could possibly change it is if you flat-out said "The Dar goes to the best defensive forward" a la the SMJHL, but that also gets messy because we're back in the whole "There aren't a lot of defensive stats tracked" thing. It would just turn into "Forward who hit the most," which doesn't necessarily mean you're a good defender. Just a guy who hit a lot, probably took some PIMs, and might not have done anything else defensively such as block shots or, idk, NOT give up goals.
Take, for example, my Season 37. I was second in the league in hits, behind Sebastian Strange. Didn't get nominated for the Dar, nor did I deserve a nomination for the Dar. Why? In a PPG season on a team that finished with a +31 GD, I mustered a +2 and only blocked ten shots. You can't look at +/- as a league-wide metric, but you can see an extreme like that within the context of my team and say, "Man, that Evans fucker didn't play much defense to cancel out so many of his points."
EDIT: Wasn't done yet, whoops. Basically, the issue you run into with both the Dar and Stevens is literally any argument to support why a player was a good defender can also be used against him. He hit a lot, but how many PIMs? He blocked a lot of shots, but was he on a bad team that gave up a lot of shots? Everybody hates plus-minus, we can't track takeaways. It's the same counter-arguments every season, and a lot of times it feels like people who say one thing in Season X say the complete opposite in Season X+1 if it fits the narrative of the guy they want to win the award. Those two are easily, for me, the most frustrating to discuss and vote on for that reason.
Btw as for the actual article, p sure i was one of the 27 to copy Grape :lol:. Some of the names on here surprised me, but in a good way. Easy to cop out and take players who have won awards, fun to see some of the different names people suggested.
<a href='index.php?showuser=2728' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-14'>Beaver</a> are you and I the only two York Mexico votes?
Quote:Originally posted by ztevans@Feb 2 2018, 04:09 AM
WARNING: Long post ahead.
The biggest problem with this logic in particular, honestly, is Simon T. Yes, as Beaver mentioned, there are very few defensive statistics we can look at to measure who plays a "200 foot game." Perhaps even more importantly (and less discussed in the context of awards) than that is just how important defense is as an attribute in Simon T. If you're leading the league in scoring in the SHL, you almost certainly have 90 defense, and 90 (if not 95-99) puck handling which factors into shot blocking.
At that point, you're only differentiation is "who hits," and most of the players who have enough TPE to max out have dumped, at a minimum, enough TPE to get checking up a fair bit to give them the hits as well. So the really good "defensive" players are also going to be your best offensive players. There's really no way around it. You can't build a good goal-scorer in Simon T with bad defense, so your "MVP" candidate forwards will always be your Dar front-runners.
The only way you could possibly change it is if you flat-out said "The Dar goes to the best defensive forward" a la the SMJHL, but that also gets messy because we're back in the whole "There aren't a lot of defensive stats tracked" thing. It would just turn into "Forward who hit the most," which doesn't necessarily mean you're a good defender. Just a guy who hit a lot, probably took some PIMs, and might not have done anything else defensively such as block shots or, idk, NOT give up goals.
Take, for example, my Season 37. I was second in the league in hits, behind Sebastian Strange. Didn't get nominated for the Dar, nor did I deserve a nomination for the Dar. Why? In a PPG season on a team that finished with a +31 GD, I mustered a +2 and only blocked ten shots. You can't look at +/- as a league-wide metric, but you can see an extreme like that within the context of my team and say, "Man, that Evans fucker didn't play much defense to cancel out so many of his points."
EDIT: Wasn't done yet, whoops. Basically, the issue you run into with both the Dar and Stevens is literally any argument to support why a player was a good defender can also be used against him. He hit a lot, but how many PIMs? He blocked a lot of shots, but was he on a bad team that gave up a lot of shots? Everybody hates plus-minus, we can't track takeaways. It's the same counter-arguments every season, and a lot of times it feels like people who say one thing in Season X say the complete opposite in Season X+1 if it fits the narrative of the guy they want to win the award. Those two are easily, for me, the most frustrating to discuss and vote on for that reason.
I don't know why the hate of +/- for this award. Like you said, if you're team is an offensive machine and has a +60 goal differential, then yeah - your +/- should be huge. I would take points away from powerplay points, because that is basically an offensive show. Checks as the defensive stat is a joke. For example. my checking is at 70+. But on my line is Volkova and Cormier-Hale...so they are checking machines. There is literally no one left for me to hit after they demolish everyone. But, a forward that doesn't take penalties, lots of shots blocked, high +/-, high point total, and a ton of penalty kill minutes should get the nod. That's just my thoughts on it.
Quote:Originally posted by Keygan+Feb 2 2018, 09:54 AM--><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1' id='QUOTE-WRAP'><tr><td>QUOTE (Keygan @ Feb 2 2018, 09:54 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--><a href='index.php?showuser=2728' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-14'>Beaver</a> are you and I the only two York Mexico votes?[/b]
No, I chose Sebastian Strange. <a href='index.php?showuser=891' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-59'>rieksts</a> was the other York for Mexico predictor.
Quote:Originally posted by ztevans@Feb 2 2018, 06:09 AM<br />
WARNING: Long post ahead.
Thanks for making it long, it was a good read.
Quote:Originally posted by ztevans@Feb 2 2018, 06:09 AM<br />Perhaps even more importantly (and less discussed in the context of awards) than that is [i]just how important defense is as an attribute in Simon T. If you're leading the league in scoring in the SHL, you almost certainly have 90 defense, and 90 (if not 95-99) puck handling which factors into shot blocking.
You can't build a good goal-scorer in Simon T with bad defense, so your "MVP" candidate forwards will always be your Dar front-runners.
This is a really good point that I hadn't considered when I was typing up the article, that "Defense" is so much more than simply "ability to play defense" in STHS.
Quote:Originally posted by ztevans@Feb 2 2018, 06:09 AM<br />The only way you could possibly change it is if you flat-out said "The Dar goes to the best defensive forward" a la the SMJHL, but that also gets messy because we're back in the whole "There aren't a lot of defensive stats tracked" thing.
we can't track takeaways.
I think we could track takeaways but it would require a lot of effort. I did this for Montreal one season (I was testing out a turnover ratio that quickly fell apart) but it simply required too much manual effort for me to continue or to do on a league-wide scale. So if anybody out there knows an easy way to pull 350 games' worth of passing data from the Full Play-by-Play section speak up.
Something cool that <a href='index.php?showuser=1773' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-13'>Baelor Swift</a> did for the SMJHL awards was whip up a spreadsheet to measure Point Shares (Offensive, Defensive, and Total). Now there are certainly flaws with that metric but I think overall it's worthy of consideration if you have other defensive metrics to go with it. Here are the Top 10 Defensive Point Shares in the NHL over the past 4 seasons. It does an okay job recognizing great defensive players.
Quote:Originally posted by ztevans@Feb 2 2018, 06:09 AM<br />You can't look at +/- as a league-wide metric, but you can see an extreme like that within the context of my team and say, "Man, that Evans fucker didn't play much defense to cancel out so many of his points."
My problem with +/- goes deeper than just "on a league-wide scale it's a team stat." First it's incredibly apeish to use a difference instead of a ratio. If Player A was on ice for 100 goals for and 90 goals against he'll have the same +/- as someone on ice for 200 goals for and 190 goals against despite being wildly different players.
Second there's no rate adjustment. If Player A is on ice for 50 goals for and 40 against in 500 minutes that's totally different than Player B who is on ice for the same but in 1,000 minutes - but that difference won't be reflected in +/-. And also if Player B is instead on ice for 100 goals for and 80 against in 1,000 he'll wind up with double Player A's +/- simply for playing twice as many minutes.
Third, it has no way to account for on-ice save percentage - something which is out of the hands of the skater. If Player A gets lucky when he's on the ice and his goaltender saves 95% of shots and Player B gets unlucky and only gets a 90% save percentage that's (assuming a league-averagish rate of 1 SOG against every 2 minutes) a difference of 25 minuses over 1,000 minutes of ice time. Sure, better defensive players (in real hockey at least) force opponents into lower quality shots which can have a tangible effect on save percentage but it's mostly just luck.
Fourth, which kind of flows nicely from Third, is that there's no way of accounting for on-ice shooting percentage. Better shooters will convert shots at a higher rate, sure, but there's still a metric shit ton of luck that goes into it. Using Evans as an example, he posted a 12.07% Sh% in S36, 9.56% in S37, and 13.24% in S38. I find it hard to believe he became a 20% worse shooter between Seasons 36 and 37 then suddenly became 40% better before Season 38.
Fifth, the goals for and against that +/- chooses to accept are weird. All Even Strength goals count, that's good. But then Shorthanded Goals For and Power Play Goals Against also count and Shorthanded Goals Against and Power Play Goals For don't count - okay there's some logic there I guess - except that Empty Net Goals For and Against do count. This arbitrary selection of some goals but not other means some weird shit happens:
1. Playing on the Power Play only hurts a player's +/-
2. Playing on the Penalty Kill only helps a player's +/-
3. Teams that often play with the lead (and are therefore faced with 5v6 situations a lot) are rewarded with empty net goals more often than 5v6 goals against which makes +/- even more of a team stat and less of an individual stat - though luckily for this, empty net goals are rare in STHS
Sixth, goals are volatile. On average there's only around 6 of them during a game so even if they come at the end of shifts +/- only factors in about a sixth of the game. For an extreme example, say you're a great defensive forward and you've totally locked down the opponents every shift, not even allowing them to get a single shot off while you're on the ice. Your team has the puck and you cruise to the front of the net when your defenseman turns the puck over at the blue line and the opposing team scores on a breakaway. Why should you get a minus for that?
Anyway I should wrap up this novel. Comparing a player's +/- to his team helps alleviate some of those concerns as it teases part of the team factor out but it's still a fundamentally flawed statistic in my eyes. Maybe Evans did play good defense in Season 37 but just got unlucky.
I just saw <a href='index.php?showuser=2338' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-3'>CBear</a> 's response about +/- so the above would be my reply to that, as well.
<!--QuoteBegin-Coach Biz[/i]@Feb 2 2018, 01:52 AM Also, hits in conjunction with a low PIM rate should be a factor. [/quote]
I do like this idea of rewarding players who hit cleanly. However, one of the flaws with using Hits (and Blocked Shots) is that it's very team dependent. If you're the best defensive forward in the league but you play on the best team then you'll have fewer opportunities to hit or block shots than someone playing on the worst team since your team will have the puck for a disproportionate amount of time. Last season, for example, Toronto allowed 16% more shots than Calgary did.
I didn't mean for that paragraph to come off as a criticism of the committee, just that it's hard to guess who's in the lead for the award right now since there aren't one or two stats that we can just point to and say "the committee will value these."
Quote:Originally posted by Beaver@Feb 2 2018, 12:09 PM
I didn't mean for that paragraph to come off as a criticism of the committee, just that it's hard to guess who's in the lead for the award right now since there aren't one or two stats that we can just point to and say "the committee will value these."
Oh, definitely didn't take it as a slight. Just wanted to provide some insight into how I have looked into these things, and you definitely brought up some points I hadn't considered.
MWHazard Wrote:i'll playwith anyone
playing with my teammates is part of the intangibles I bring to the table
i play with them a lot.
they didn't like it at first
but after a while, it just felt normal
Justice,Sep 18 2016, 02:09 PM Wrote:4-0 and 0-4 aren't that different tbh
McJesus - Today at 10:38 PM Wrote:FIRE EGGY
HIRE ARTY
Beaver
Danny Foster (184)
Clint Eastwood (7) 
John Grossman (6)
Maria Maximova (1) 
Mia Landvik (1)
Zach Evans (100)
Joe Kurczewski (44)
Corey Bearss, Kyle Kylrad, Mikko Linna, and Sebastian Strange (1 each)
Zanarkand Abes (61)
Sebastian Strange (15)
Michael McFadden (16)
Jason Aittokallio (4)
minutes through 8 games) this could turn into a runaway.
TJ Bayley (6)![[Image: xUEejrJ.png]](https://i.imgur.com/xUEejrJ.png)
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