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Beaver · 05-23-2018, 05:35 PM

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So today I was looking into players to trade for in SHL fantasy and it seemed like a good way to make a quick buck. I didn't want to swap for a player that has 10 goals but is shooting 50% just to have them come back to earth after I add them so I focused on players that had decent fantasy point totals, a low shooting percentage, and who have the opportunity to bounce back (top 6/4 minutes, power play time, etc). I highlighted the 5 players I deemed most likely to rebound through the rest of the season.

Vasily Horvat (F - Texas)
Owned in 3 out of 16 groups
82 Fantasy Points

It might seem a bit odd to lead off with a player that has already accumulated 82 fantasy points (17th highest) and leads his team in scoring but I feel that he will have an even stronger finish to the season. 38% of his fantasy points have come from hits and blocked shots so far this season which is third highest among forwards so once his points start rolling in (he has 3 goals on 56 shots this season) Horvat could see himself among the overall fantasy leaders. In addition, heâ€™s tied for 4th in the league in assists with 12 but heâ€™s not feasting off lucky teammates. Only three Renegades are shooting over 10% so I'm more comfortable with that assist rate being sustainable than, for example, Terrance Nova who plays on a line with Derrick Glover (26.32% shooting). But the main thing is Horvatâ€™s personal shooting percentage. If you modify every playerâ€™s score to what it would be if they were shooting 10% Vasily Horvat would be second in the league behind Shoyu Kikkoman and heâ€™s playing on the Renegadesâ€™ top line and top power play unit. As a player thatâ€™s only owned in 3 leagues (4 now since I just swapped for him B) ) this is a prime candidate for a trade.

Chris York (F - Toronto)
Owned in 16 out of 16 groups
66.1 Fantasy Points

<a href='index.php?showuser=2761' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-10'>Keygan</a> donâ€™t read this paragraph, go drop Chris York and come back for the next entry. Last seasonâ€™s Fantasy Points leader has disappointed owners at this early point in the season but I am of the opinion that if youâ€™re a Chris York owner you shouldnâ€™t be concerned. First off, York is second among forwards in average time on ice per game. Heâ€™s going to get lots of minutes and therefore lots of opportunities to accumulate statistics. Second, like Horvat above, he has an unsustainably low shooting percentage at 4.76%. This is a guy who shot 11.58% last season and hasnâ€™t hit regression. Heâ€™s 8th in the league in shots so eventually those will start going in and heâ€™ll climb quickly from his current 42nd position in Fantasy Points. Being owned in every group, antsy owners may be tempted to drop him but that would be an overreaction. If someone in your group does pull the trigger I would highly recommend grabbing him for the rebound.

Jasper Clayton (D - Toronto)
Owned in 15 out of 16 groups
66.8 Fantasy Points

Speaking of North Stars with low shooting percentages, Jasper Clayton has started out the season with 0 goals on 22 shots. Only four players have more shots without a goal so far - Jacob Renninger (34), Casper Jakobsson (24), Chippy Chiclets (23), and Hunter Jones (23). But unlike those players, Clayton is still putting up considerable Fantasy Points as he sits in 41st overall. If heâ€™d scored 2 goals heâ€™d be pushing the top 10 for defensemen. There is a minor concern with the assist total as he plays a lot of time with Bob Bergen (25% shooting) but any regression there should be more than balanced by York, Kristian Eriksson, and Elias Lindstrom climbing up toward their career averages. Heâ€™s on the top power play unit and second penalty kill so those should allow him to rack up points and hits/shot blocks, respectively. Clayton isnâ€™t owned in Group 2 so he could be a good swap for someone there.

Ace Redding (F - Edmonton)
Owned in 8 out of 16 groups
68.1 Fantasy Points

Not to sound like a broken record but Redding is third in the league in shots and tenth in power play minutes while rocking a 6.49% shooting percentage. But it isnâ€™t just his goal totals that are unsustainably low, his assists should see a rebound as well. As of the most recent sim, Redding is playing on a line with Teodors Cukurs and Teddy Cuddles at 5v5 and Cukurs and Cory Knouse on the power play. Cukurs is shooting 7.1% and Cuddles is shooting 7.4% only Knouse is overachieving with 13.8% (and on the power play heâ€™s at exactly the same rate as he had on the power play last season). As those normalize, Reddingâ€™s assist tally will get a nice boost. Redding is only owned in half of the groups so if youâ€™re looking to make a move and want to bet on a player to rebound, Redding is worth a look.

Toivo Kosonen (D - New England)
Owned in 11 out of 16 groups
53 Fantasy Points

Top 5v5 pairing, top power play unit, top penalty kill unit, low shooting percentage. Kosonen is second in the league in power play shots with 20 but has just one goal and one assist so Iâ€™m definitely looking for those to bounce back. Right now heâ€™s being carried by his hits and blocked shots with over half his Fantasy Points coming from those two categories. I suspect those will be sustainable since heâ€™s 6th in the league in average minutes per game. With New England tied for 3rd-fewest goals as a team Iâ€™d expect Toivo to get a nice boost in points as the Wolfpack start scoring but with just 53 points (36th among defensemen, 33rd on a per-game basis) a quarter through the season itâ€™ll be a tough climb to finish the season in the top 16 and justify the picks of 11 fantasy owners. For people in the other 5 groups looking for a defender to swap in, betting on Kosonen to bounce back is something to consider.

Some other players that look like theyâ€™re off to an unlucky start that should turn around:
Ronnie Westbrook (D - Hamilton), 86.4 points, 4.17% shooting, owned in 15/16 groups.
Max Weber (D - Winnipeg), 80.3 points, 5.56% shooting, owned in 16/16 groups.
Roman Augustus (D - Calgary), 71.1 points, 3.70% shooting, owned in 6/16 groups.
Clint Eastwood (D - Seattle), 68.6 points, 0.00% shooting, owned in 9/16 groups.
Tigole Bitties (F - Edmonton), 56 points, 7.23% shooting, owned in 2/16 groups.
Robert Phelps (F - Hamilton), 53.7 points, 5.08% shooting, owned in 3/16 groups.
Mia Landvik (D - New England), 53.7 points, 0.00% shooting, owned in 16/16 groups.
Teodors Cukurs (F - Edmonton), 53.5 points, 7.14% shooting, owned in 0/16 groups.
Bubba Nuck (D - Edmonton), 51.6 points, 4.17% shooting, owned in 2/16 groups.
Mikko Linna (F - West Kendall), 51.3 points, 5.56% shooting, owned in 15/16 groups.