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JayWhy · 07-12-2018, 01:31 AM

POST-DRAFT ANALYSIS CONCLUSION: THE PREDICTION ARTICLE

Pre-Draft Analysis

Post-Draft Analysis: Kelowna

Post-Draft Anaylsis: Montreal

Post-Draft Analysis: Detroit Falcons

Post-Draft Analysis: St. Louis

Post-Draft Analysis: Colorado

Post-Draft Analysis: Vancouver

Post-Draft Analysis: Halifax

Post-Draft Analysis: Anchorage

This has been a week of draft coverage at The Athletic, with a pre-draft analysis of team needs followed by articles detailing each team's draft and expected position. The links are connected above, and you can feel free to review any you may have missed over the course of this week.

With this all winding down, it's become time for a finale. Obviously, going into this, I hadn't thought of what I would really highlight when the end came to pass. Now that I've taken a personal look into the highlights of every team and the strengths and weaknesses they have, I'm going to take one final look at the picks they made and give you three topics to chew on as we conclude the week of draft coverage.

MY (UNDERRATED) FAVORITE PICKS OF EACH TEAM

You always have favorites, no matter what you do. While every team made great picks along the way and tended to capture something to fit their team needs. Some teams did better than others in the way of grabbing value later in the draft, or in terms of grabbing somebody who will be an immediate impact player and is worthwhile having on the roster. It's easy to draft in the first two rounds, but things get difficult after Pick 16. As such, these are the eight selections that I find to be the best picks of each team.

ANCHORAGE ARMADA -- Pick 50 - Ryan Mason, RW

Mason is a player without a lot of fanfare going into the draft, obviously considering his very much middle of the road draft position. However, he's somebody with an active presence in the locker room and has immediately stepped into a very serious role as a leader amongst the team. He's supportive of teammates by all accounts, and has done well to establish himself early on. It's fully expected that he'll rise up the lines as time progresses, and next season will see top-six minutes. For this season, he may not seem like a major impact player, but don't sleep on this star in the making as he rises up SHL Draft Boards and makes all the right plays at all the right times.

COLORADO RAPTORS -- Pick 19 - Nate Forsberg, RW

It's not a late pick, though they had spectacular picks such as Andrew Martin later in the draft at 6, Sulak O'Hritea at 61 and Pakko Pelai at 78. However, the third pick in the draft for Colorado was, to me, a home run of a selection. Nate Forsberg has been an immediate force around the league when it comes to personality, and his skillset seems ready to translate into the SMJHL. He's a very driven player, and has a strong physical presence in his game. He'll be strong through checks, and be a major puck handler for the team. With them recently shipping out Cash Savage in a deal with the Kelowna Knights, Forsberg will be relied upon in a much greater role. Expect to see him be a breakout star this season, likely taking some time to adjust but coming around quickly toward the end.

DETROIT FALCONS -- Pick 66 - David Fantobens, RW

You're all going to begin thinking I have an affinity for right wings. It just turns out, this was a strong class on the right side. Another right wing selection here, David Fantobens was somebody early on in the process very communicative and with a pristine image. He's still very raw, and his skillset hasn't quiet developed yet, but his inquisitive mind is going to do him a load of favors in that regard. He's the type to go to the coach after practice to go over film and adjust any way he needs to. As such, I can see Fantobens starting at a diminished role, but ending the season strong and being a true impact player for a Falcons team that is desperately in need beyond Flacko Lagerfield and Lightning Jones. They also made a fantastic selection at 44 with Cedric Robinson, who we'll address at a later point in this article.

HALIFAX RAIDERS -- Pick 49 - Thomas Speardane, D

This is another toss-up between Speardane and Snipperri Baardownen, selected at 57 just eight picks later. However, in this list, Speardane is just a little bit higher up. He's an active defender, with a strong stick and a great mind. From my understanding with him, he's been a multiple sport star prior to choosing hockey, but his play in those other sports has helped him to gain a better understanding of body language and movement in reading another player. He has a great ability to read the game and the play and break things up. The expectation at this time would be for Speardane to jump up the line-up quickly with openings available all over, and I can see him challenging earlier selections for a top pairing spot. Even if he lands on the second pairing, know It's not any fault of his own.

KELOWNA KNIGHTS -- Pick 69 - Oliver Dahl, D

While it's probably inaccurate to pick a team's first selection as my underrated favorite. However, with Kelowna not picking until this point, it shows in their draft. They didn't have a lot of success across the board, but grabbed a solid defender in Dahl who will likely play a more limited role while the Knights gear up for a potential "Three-Peat" with the Four Star Cup. He's a player who will be leading the new era of Knights in the near future, one that looks somewhat grim and bleak. If he's able to turn out as well as he has developed thus far, expect it to get at least a little bit brighter in Kelowna.

MONTREAL MILITIA -- Pick 35 - Petr Vrana, G

They had a good group of picks, but none are as valuable and necessary to a team as their selection at thirty-five in Petr Vrana. Montreal was severely lacking in the blue paint going into this season, and they made a powerplay early on to get the goaltender they believe is the best in his class. While I'm not able to comment on if he's going to be the best or not at this time, I can commend them on the excellent drafting strategy and I agree they acquired a great goaltender here. This is a pick that can truly help carry them along the way and can be expected to be a superstar when it's all said and done.

ST. LOUIS SCARECROWS -- Pick 31 - Nicky Pedersen Jr., LW

It isn't often you're able to acquire the son of one of the highest scoring players in the history of the SHL in the draft. Even more so, it's less often you can acquire them after the first two rounds. St. Louis nailed it on this pick and the one before at 25 with Lil Manius. Pedersen's heritage is well-known and an absolute force to be reckoned with in this league. While there's never any guarantees with this league, it serves to reason that Pedersen Jr will follow in his father's footsteps in terms of pure skill. Even if he never reaches the heights of his father, he'll be a true high-impact player this team can rely upon. The fact he was available at 31 is astounding, the fact St. Louis picked him up was genius. If anybody would've passed on him, they may need to be checked.

VANCOUVER WHALERS -- Pick 32 - Luke Thomason, LW

In relation to the pick just before, this selection holds no weight on the league coming in. However, in the SMJHL, you make your own legacy and pull your own weight. Thomason has been doing that. He's gotten around quick with making connections, and developed chemistry with a few players. He's easily a player who can step into any line-up and command respect from goaltenders and defenders alike. From this point, Thomason has been an incredibly gifted player and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pushing up the line-up and pushing a few players out on the Whalers to head to greener pastures in the SHL. He has the talent to be a true driving force of the continued success of this team.

MY TOP-5 ROOKIE OF THE YEAR CANDIDATES (WITH SOME HONORABLE MENTIONS)

After a draft, everybody goes to twitter and the like to start looking up what they got. They want an idea of who's who and what's what heading out of the draft. One of the big questions people have is whether the player their team took is actually any good, and usually they ask if they could be a rookie of the year candidate. This is a tricky question, because a lot of it comes down to the situation they're put in from the outset and the opportunities they're afforded. However, talent and skill still have a major effect on player development, as does making a good impression with your coach. From this post-draft, pre-season period, here are my expected top-five for the rookie of the year award.

Please note, this was an extremely difficult list to come up with. Primarily, there are so many high-skill players available to choose from. I could've gone with a list of twenty and still not had enough space.

#1) LESHAUN KING, CENTER – HALIFAX RAIDERS

King being the second overall pick is just a testament to his work ethic and skill level. He is an outright force of nature when it comes to his personality and charisma, let alone when he's on the ice. He has already done an outstanding job in the community and drawing his teammates together. If he keeps this up, he's easily the type to elevate his teammates games and make Halifax one of the hardest teams to play against. He's going to be afforded every opportunity as well. He's already the top center in Halifax after their recent purge last season, and will likely line-up next to Shooter McGavin. While it's difficult for a rookie to keep up with a player like Shooter, King has the best chance to and is easily the favorite to be the rookie scoring leader and Rookie of the Year.

#2) PETR VRANA/CEDRIC ROBINSON, GOALTENDER – MONTREAL MILITIA/DETROIT FALCONS

I know, I know. This isn't the spirit of it. It's my list, however, and I can do what I want. In the case of these two, Vrana and Robinson are in the perfect position to succeed. Specifically, Vrana, but Robinson all the same. With Vrana, taking over the starting role in Montreal comes with the perks of a mostly finished product on the ice and the support of players like Harvey Danger and Rafe Ulrich in front of him. Montreal is expected to be one of the best teams in the league next season, and that's even with Vrana having some hiccups out of the gate. With his win totals and the proper coaching strategy around him, Vrana could have heavy support and be an easy favorite for this award. Robinson, on the other hand, may face more shots than Vrana but will be on a fun and fast-paced team. He's going to be worked hard, and have to work for his success in ways Vrana may not. He'll be the typical "good, bad team goalie" in that he'll have to be athletic and make difficult saves which other players like Vrana may not, but that may not mean he's better. It'll be an interesting race between the two this season, and one to definitely keep an eye on.

#3) GOKU MUERTO, CENTER – ST. LOUIS SCARECROWS

Muerto is being afforded great opportunities in St. Louis. With a strong draft that was well calculated by the management team, Muerto is entering camp as the best center on the team guaranteed. On a team with a heavy right side, Muerto is going to be the player tasked with getting face-offs to the corners and walls as well as being the outlet up the middle for breakouts or entries. He's likely to be banging bodies regularly deep in the zone, but luckily will play most often with Tony Snow, Nicholas Falk and Daniel Karlsson. With those three surrounding him, Muerto should find himself well supported and put into positions to succeed regularly. If he's anything like his father, he'll be a bruiser down the middle who attacks the net hard, perfect to draw players away from Snow and Falk and to cash in when the opportunity presents itself. He'll be a great option both offensively and defensively, and one to watch as a two-way forward.

#4) PIERRE LUROCHE-DUROCHER, DEFENSE – HALIFAX RAIDERS

Opportunity is a key factor in who can truly become the Rookie of the Year. You could be one of the highest skilled players in the league, however if you're a third line player with low-skill teammates, you may not get the opportunities to shine. Halifax is the perfect place for people to shine right now, as just about every role except goaltender is wide open for the taking and they intend for people to take them. Training camp has been fantastic for them, by having everyone have to earn their individual role and with the leadership of King, they've seen players competing at a level that is previously unheard of in the latter half of S42 after the mass exodus of their leadership group. Luroche-Durocher is their first defenseman taken in the draft, a player with an active stick and high IQ who can stand people up at the line and join the rush when necessary. He'll likely have some stumbles early on as he develops chemistry and the team as a whole goes through the remainder of their makeover and establishes their strategy, but expect him to rack up points, hits and assists in route to a high finish in award voting season.

#5) JAX AITTOKALLIO, CENTER – ANCHORAGE ARMADA

When you're the top pick in a draft, you're expected to be one of the first players named in these kinds of conversations. However, with Aittokallio, his skills are still pretty raw and he'll be in a position in Anchorage where he'll play more defensive minutes and second line alongside fellow draftee Eero Niemi. He has the ability to break a game open with his blinding speed and footwork, as well as incredible puck skill, but he may be tasked with assignments that don't lend themselves to a breakout season. Anchorage has been letting him bust loose in practice more lately, and we'll see where that may go, however it can be expected he may be a step behind others early on while his skills come together and the coaching staff work out how to put the puzzle pieces together best.

HONORABLE MENTIONS: Eero Niemi, Anchorage; Marc Palicka, Detroit; Nate Forsberg, Colorado; Nicky Pedersen Jr., St. Louis; Max Mauldin, Vancouver

MY (PRE)SEASON PREDICTIONS

Finally, we've reached the end of the line for us. From here, I'm making my season predictions for what I anticipate will happen in the coming season in the SMJHL. These thoughts are purely my own, and have been measured out in the individual team's posts as well. Please check those posts for a deeper look into my thought process on my rankings, however I will have blurbs here to give an idea.

1) VANCOUVER WHALERS

This is a team stacked from seasons of preparation for this moment, and still prepared for even if the unexpected happens and a player needs to be called up at any time. They have one of the better goaltenders, the best defense, and one of the best offenses in the league and that's without focusing on any of the draftees. They added Max Mauldin to the mix and while he's incredibly skilled, he likely won't even crack their top-six this season because of their depth. They're my favorite to win it all this season.

2) KELOWNA KNIGHTS

Prior to their acquisition of Cash Savage and Kevin Maddox, this team was slightly lower on the rankings. However, once again, the Knights just continue to find ways to add to their team and drive themselves back into contention. The question is whether they're able to continue it. The future is bleak in Kelowna now, and they better hope for their sake that it was worth it. I think they'll falter at times in the regular season, but playoffs is where Kata Vilde turns it on. It's likely down to them, Vancouver and the third team for me, but I'm siding with Vancouver in this one.

3) MONTREAL MILITIA

This team is well-built up front. They have a deep skater group led by some high picks in the past few seasons. The only thing that keeps them outside of my absolutely upper-echelon is their reliance on a rookie goaltender. While it's entirely possible for Vrana to find his footing early on in the season and do absolutely spectacular work in net, it could also be the hindrance that spells disaster for Montreal and hits their Cup window. A safe bet on them is this three spot where they could be a surprise team, or could be a bust. My bet is that they are a very successful team this season, though.

4) ST. LOUIS SCARECROWS

Between St. Louis and our fifth team, I had trouble deciding who gets the top-four spot. St. Louis ultimately wins out, but barely. They have an over-reliance on Goku Muerto at the center position, and will have to address that quickly. However, they have players all around him who are going to be able to make plays. Tony Snow and Daniel Karlsson lead the way, with Nicholas Falk not too far behind. With proper strategy and working the puck to the right side, this team is going to be well set to drive play forward. They have strength on the back end and can ride out leads once they get them, so expect them to be an aggressive team offensively early on in games and to sit on leads afterward.

5) ANCHORAGE ARMADA

This team is similar to St. Louis. They have good goaltending, a solid returning class of defensemen and players up the line-up who can bust a game open in Cameron Carter III, Doug Dimmadome and Muhammad McLovin. They have better center depth, but the issue I see is in whether they have the same game breaking talent St. Louis does. Daniel Karlsson and Tony Snow are better than the best of Anchorage, and gives St. Louis the slight edge. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see Anchorage break into the top-four and surpass St. Louis. They have a lot of high end rookies led by the top overall selection and sixth overall selection, and the reigning goaltender of the year in Benjamin Blue. Expect this to be a hefty race, and could be a fascinating playoff series come season's end.

6) COLORADO RAPTORS

After moving on from Cash Savage and Kevin Maddox, Colorado takes a bit of a hit on this board. However, they're still just edging by into playoffs here. They're weak down the middle, having drafted only wings and defensemen. However, they have one of the strongest defenses in the league led by Maui, Sachimo Zoidberg Jr and Nico Wallner. They have a group of forwards who are spectacular, and ultra-high skill forwards like Philipp Winter, Ignatius Blunt and Nate Forsberg to lead the way offensively. While they're a team in flux, they have the ability behind them to be a true force this coming season. They're one of the teams I could see falling to the bottom of the league based on inexperience, but for the time being, I can see them as a surprise playoff team thanks to great goaltending and defense.

7) DETROIT FALCONS

Flacko Lagerfield and Lightning Jones will continue to drag Detroit as far as they can. With Marc Palicka between them this season, it's entirely possible for this team to make a huge statement this season toward the end of the year. However, with Cedric Robinson as their top goaltender and playing a similar role to Montreal's Vrana, it's going to be an uphill climb. Detroit isn't built with the long-term successes of Montreal, unfortunately, and are looking at a lot of graduating players this season. As such, Robinson is more on his own here and the team will have ups and downs with the developments of their rookies. They could be one of the best teams in the second half of the season in S42, but I see them stumbling too much out of the gate before getting there and being too little, too late.

8) HALIFAX RAIDERS

Halifax could legitimately make the playoffs. They have talent up and down the line-up, have an enigmatic leader who carries himself and his team well, and have two goaltenders who could reasonably be goalie of the year candidates. Logically, they have the pieces necessary to make a surprise run, and it wouldn't surprise me much. However, logically speaking, they're starting the season with an abnormally high number of rookies on the squad and in prominent roles. These players are going to be picked apart early on by the pace of play, the speed of the opponents and the skill levels they face. It's typical of rookies, which is why they tend to be shelters. Unfortunately, there is no sheltering in Halifax this season. Leshaun King could keep up with anybody, and Shooter McGavin will try to help drag them along. But with a hole-riddled defense that will be developing on the fly and a lot of skill positions filled by players still learning how to use those skills and their bodies to their advantage, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them stumble hard early on and become a legitimate threat late in the season. S43 may be their year, but S42 is the year they build up to their year. They're definitely well placed to do so. Just goes to show, It's exciting times in Halifax.

That does it for our draft coverage this week at The Athletic. Please let us know your thoughts on standings, predictions and the like. We will keep an eye on the season and revisit this at a later date toward the end of the season to see how we did on our predictions.

Quote:Word Count: 3776. Double Media Week Part 3/3.

I may come back to add some pictures but, I kind of like it how it is. I apologize for it being a big block of text, and I hope you enjoyed my series for Double Media Week. I doubt I do it again, but it was fun while it lasted.

An old man's dream ended. A young man's vision of the future opened wide. Young men have visions, old men have dreams. But the place for old men to dream is beside the fire.