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Pride three season forecast
#1
(This post was last modified: 09-01-2018, 12:40 AM by King.)

I began making some notes for a future podcast, and figured, in the words of @Clint Eastwood "post that shit and make some money boy"

Also, just my own thoughts, we're lucky to be in Grape and Tweeds capable hands, and they likely have a much better plan than anything I can think of happening.

Player development S43 to 45

First and foremost the crop of drafted prospects drafted need to have a big season developmentally. If the next season were to end in 7 weeks irl time that would mean each prospect can earn up to 7x2 TPE from activity checks + 7x5 from training + 6x3 from PTs (capped) + 6x2 from Weekly Predictions (1 capped, potentially 1 uncapped) + 6x2 from Weekend fun (1 capped, potentially 1 uncapped) + 21 from training camp + 28 from equipment + 10 from champions week, then some extra from Fantasy, Mocks, Play by Play, Milestones and season predictions. Assuming they got no bonus in predictions or from weekend fun time, that comes to a maximum of 40 capped TPE and 108 uncapped TPE, before the extra opportunities listed. Historically top earner would earn around 190 TPE per season, but this number has been slowly declining over the seasons. Ideally the entire draft class could earn between 100-180 TPE this upcoming season. If the prospect crop can maintain that pace over the next two seasons each should see an increase of 200-360 TPE. Below is listed each player with there draft day TPE and there projected TPE after three seasons of developing at that pace

Leshaun King 313 -> 613 to 853
Luke Thomason 293 -> 593 to 833
Goku Muerto 278  -> 578 to 818
Petr Vrana 273  -> 573 to 813
Jeff Brogen 271  -> 571 to 811
Jack Kennedy 263  -> 563 to 803
Carlo Russo 261  -> 561 to 801
Steven Moyer 259  -> 559 to 799
Vince Rieper 257 -> 557 to 797
Richard Metcalf Jr 251  -> 551 to 791
Sean Stevenson Jr 247  -> 547 to 787
Eero Makinen 200  -> 500  to 740

Now obviously this is super crewed. Some will earn less, some will be on the lower end of the range, some higher. Some will likely decide the league isn't for them and leave, or go inactive, but thats happens and is the nature of prospect development. The best the Pride can do is try and build a rich, support and nurturing environment in which players will want to be a part of. And steps are being taken to ensure that as much as possible. The locker room has been steadily growing in activity since the draft, players are optimistic of the future and have been building bonds of friendship over different common interests were discovering. The team is active in writing media that includes one another, something that always generates interest in the league and theres a core in San Francisco which is watching over the S43 class, mindful to help them not miss any TPE opportunities in which they might want to partake in. To build a great team takes great drafting, but also consistent and careful development. The list above didn't include a few key current roster players who are older and Grapes defensemen from the previous draft.

Drafting S44, 45 and 46

In terms of compiling picks in the next few drafts the Pride have essentially done all they possible can for the next three seasons. Unless they ship away one of the S43 prospects, the team has traded away every roster player who hasn't explicitly asked not to be dealt because they want to be here for the long haul. Meaning the current crop of picks is likely what they'll have when they come to the next three draft days. S44 consists of each of their own picks, and no others. S45 consists of each of their own picks plus three other 2nd round picks, and a third. Which S45 consists of each of their own picks.

S44 and S45 the team is expected to finish quite poorly in the standings. In honesty, it would be very surprising to see the Pride not finish last this upcoming season, considering how bad they were the year before and that the roster got worse, and they won't be getting any better in S45 so the team should finish last again. This means the Pride will likely be drafting top 2 in both of the next two drafts. Some think the S45 draft could be the next reddit draft, due to the timing with winter break, I personally think it's more like to be S46. If it is S45 then the second round picks will have a huge bolster in value, but eering on the side of caution and assuming they're not the team will likely get one solid prospect with the top 2 picks and less of a certain prospect with their second round pick, since it will still be quite high. S45 itself is when the pride are likely expected to see graduates from the S43 class trickling into the roster so the S46 draft pick will likely not be as high but still decent.

Ultimately the hope here is that the top 2 picks in the S44 and S45 draft will bolster there line up, while hopefully some of the other picks can fill in gaps where inactives may appear. Giving the Pride a good young core, drafted and developed to build with in.

Contracts

The Pride were quite diverse in how they handed out contracts to the S43 class. They had a huge amount of cap space available to spend, so they made sure to give adequate money to players, and could give more to the players with thinner bank accounts. Eero Makinen, Petr Vrana, Jack Kennedy, Richard Mectalf Jr, Sean Stevenson Jr and Vince Rieper each got 1 year 4 million contracts, which is extremely generous when compared to many rookie contracts around the league. Likely this group will each get another big money 1 year deal after this season, before being offered max term (three year extensions) after that. This gives the players two years of big salary to save up, and are sort of like "show me" deals, where the players can then commit to the Pride long term on a deal both sides feel comfortable with. Carlo Russo and Jeff Brogen took two year deals for less money, three million, and the same principal stands for them, that they'll likely be presented with max term deals after this contract ends. Lastly Leshaun King, Luke Thomason and Goku Muerto are in the same boat, but could afford to take less money and took 2 million. So it's really two seasons from now where the team will have it's core committed or not. An interesting case, is Steven Moyer who signed his rookie deal with Edmonton before joining. They gave him a three year deal worth 1 mill. So after most of the S43 class has signed, Moyer will be given his long term offer a year later.

Externally it's also likely this season that the pride will begin looking at plugging holes and bolstering their line up in free agency. Depends on how much money the team is forced to give their RFAs the Pride will be a very favourable landing spot for free agents. A young growing core, with a healthy and active locker room could appeal to young talent that doesn't feel like they fit in their current team or veterans who would like to mentor a young club. Either way this should be the last line of attack to filling the roster.

S47 Onward

This is when the Pride should be entering their prime. The team will be young and growing and should be able to enter the group of bubble teams by this season, from this point on, it's anybodys guess how the story goes, but hopefully the club can keep building and become cup contenders for a solid window at that point.

Just some thoughts on the Pride, really nobody can forecast even a season ahead accurately, but its fun to try to. Looking past the present and into the future builds excitement. Plant the seed and envision the tree.

Also, I'll stick in a shameless plug at the end here for the next through the luking glass podcast. Kez is joining Luke and I to go over the draft and do a recap, looking at all the interesting picks and sliding talent.

1430 Words.

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#2

Great job on this.
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#3

Wow! Pride are looking like a young and hungry team . . .


Or they circumvent the cap again!
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#4

pride

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#5

09-01-2018, 09:47 AMClint Eastwood Wrote: Wow! Pride are looking like a young and hungry team . . .


Or they circumvent the cap again!

Ya, I'm just about to go edit that contract signing thread Ninja





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#6

Pride looks to be in good hands with Charlie Schieck, Leshaun King and what looks like a new dedicated your core.

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