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Carbine's unsolicited S49 Draft Review
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(This post was last modified: 08-04-2019, 11:41 PM by Carbine.)

*Draft media, Double payout; posting now, work in progress until 11:59 tonight.*

DALLAS, TX – Home of the SHL’s Texas Renegades, Dallas, Texas was the site for this year’s SHL Entry Draft. While it may not have been the largest draft in the league’s history, the amount of activity between teams jockeying for position certainly made it out to be one of the more anticipated drafts in recent memory. Ten trades took place in the days leading up to the draft, four of which would impact the draft in some way.

San Francisco, Buffalo, West Kendall, Edmonton, Toronto, New Orleans, and Draft Host Texas all made moves to better their draft position or acquire assets for next season and future seasons. Chicago would end up starting a rather interesting trade line that will certainly be looked at in the future, and New Orleans would continue to bolster their ranks with veteran talent in the hopes of winning the West again next season.

Trade 1:

Stampede receives:
syndicate S49 1st Round Pick
syndicate S50 2nd Round Pick

syndicate receives:
Lallo Selman

Chicago pays a very reasonable price for a player that is knocking on the door to the SHL and Buffalo cashes in for a player that would have a role in Buffalo but at a cost that Buffalo might not be able to afford. Selman fits the Syndicate’s timeline nicely, fitting into a formidable core that includes Westbroek, Kennedy, Soonika, and the variety of Smeb on the team. Buffalo gets a pick they would end up flipping (more on that momentarily) and a Reddit 2nd that very well could be flipped as well depending on how the draft class shapes up in the coming season.

Trade 2:

pride receives:
Chiefs S49 1st (3rd overall)
Renegades S51 2nd / Renegades S52 2nd* Texas selects prior to S51 draft

Renegades receives:
Rage S49 1st (2nd overall)

Time will tell if Texas made the right move by trading up just one spot from 3 to 2. A non-Reddit 2nd seems reasonable to move up one spot in the first round (the top 3, no less), but with the exact pick up in the air for another 2 full seasons (the equivalent of at least 2 real-life months), San Francisco either knew their guy would be available at 3 or were comfortable with picking the best player available at 3 and picking up an extra draft asset in the process. Not a terrible trade by any means, but San Francisco is in prime position to win this trade.

Trade 3:

Stampede receives:
Platoon S50 2nd
Platoon S52/53 1st* Buffalo selects prior to S52 draft

Platoon receives:
syndicate S49 1st

S49 CHI 1st is on the move again, heading down the East Coast to Florida. Buffalo gets a nice haul in a conditional 1st 3-4 seasons from now (when they’ll likely be completely ravaged by regression and retirement), as well as a Reddit 2nd next season. One could argue Buffalo fleeced West Kendall in this trade considering some see a Reddit 2nd equivalent to a 1st in most drafts, but West Kendall must be confident in their ability to compete in S52 as well as S53 to be giving up such a pick right now.

Trade 4:

Platoon receives:
Wolfpack S49 1st (6th OA)
Blizzard S52 2nd

Blizzard receives:
syndicate S49 1st (4th OA)

S49 CHI 1st meets their final resting place north of the border in Edmonton. West Kendall moves down two spots to 6, while Edmonton moves into the top 5 for the low, low price of a 2nd in S52.

Trade 5:

Specters receives:
Bob Bergen (re-signed before trade; 3/3m per, HTD contract)
Stars S53/S54 4th* Reddit protected

Stars receives:
Specters S49 1st (14th overall)
Specters S53/S54 2nd* Reddit protected
Specters S50 3rd

New Orleans gives up a ton but gets their #1 defenseman in Bergen for the next 3 seasons (or less). Each team swaps Reddit protected selections – the way I interpret this is that should S53 be a Reddit draft, the picks will be deferred to S54. Should S54 appear to be the next Reddit draft, the picks will be swapped in S53. Either way, Toronto turns a 4th into a 2nd. New Orleans is turning into the Golden State Warriors of hockey heading into only their 4th season of existence with the West seemingly theirs to lose now. God help the Western Conference and the Southwest Division.

Round One:

1. Panthers Los Angeles Panthers - Elijah Jones @Toivo

He was nowhere near the top of rookie scoring in the SMJHL this past season, but his ceiling is astronomically high despite his floor being relatively (extremely relatively) low now. Jones’ pedigree is second to none which made him the consensus #1 pick in most mock drafts. Los Angeles has been linked to Jones since he declared for even the SMJHL draft which makes this selection even more satisfying to the Panthers.

2. Renegades Texas Renegades (via San Francisco Pride, via Manhattan Rage) - Noah Brusky @BrewskyBoy

This is an interesting pick, one that I think will make more of an impact on the Renegades than some might think. The thinking behind it intrigues me even more.

Texas traded up to 2, as I mentioned above. Everyone and their mother knew that Jones was going at 1. Someone had piqued Texas’ interest enough to warrant giving up an additional asset to get a specific player that might go right after Jones. By that logic, one could think this players projection is higher and more valuable to Texas than the player that would be selected at 3, as well as a player 2-3 seasons from now. The team needs come into play as well. Let’s look at who Brusky is and what might have compelled Texas to pay an additional price for his services.

1. He’s a defenseman – Texas has 3 of the best defensemen in the league in Dude, O’Callaghan, and Danger. Two of which are in regression and the third beginning to see it in the distance. I don’t think they need a defenseman immediately, but with Dude and O’Callaghan potentially retiring at similar times, they will need to fill that hole to remain competitive. Danger is good, but one player doesn’t make a hockey team.
2. He’s first-gen – This could turn off some since, by the very nature of sim leagues, you have no idea if they are going to stick around. It’s a true question mark. They could be a bust or they could be the next power-user that everyone gravitates towards in free agency. It’s a gamble, but Texas likes their odds. And being the SMJHL Intern tends to lead to higher things in SHL.
3. He’s a defensive archetype – This is what I think justified the selection the most. Brusky led all rookies in St. Louis this season despite being a defensive defenseman. The scoring upside is there. Additionally, he fills a role that Texas and most teams don’t currently have. Lockdown defensemen aren’t as glamorous as the Offensive or Two-Way types, but a good one can make all the difference when you’re taking on the top offensive stars in the league. If it pays off, Brusky could end up giving Jones a run for his money in terms of value down the line.

3. pride San Francisco Pride (via Texas Renegades, via Minnesota Chiefs, via Buffalo Stampede) - Bo Kane @NONAME

Bo Kane led all Colorado rookies in scoring in S48 and finished the season on the Raptors 1st line as a winger to Knurtsson and Soderberg. He joins Knurtsson in San Francisco and likely slots into the 5th spot in their depth chart at Center. Muerto and Moyer are S43 selections and could remain at 1 and 2 for the next 3-4 seasons at least, but I can see Kane ending up as a 1a/1b Center with his Raptors teammate Knurtsson or as a winger if Muerto or Moyer continues deep into regression.

4. Blizzard Edmonton Blizzard (via West Kendall Platoon, via Buffalo Stampede, via Chicago Syndicate) - Finn Rhys @FinnRhys

Finn is your proto-typical two-way defenseman. That’s not meant to be a slight or anything. Every team needs defense. Finn will likely provide that as well as more scoring than a comparable defensive defenseman. Most teams just want a serviceable, active player from the draft and Edmonton likely got that and a piece of their top 4 defense for the foreseeable future.

5. Renegades Texas Renegades - Ricky Spanish @Whikadoodle

Depending on when Spanish makes the jump to the SHL, he could slot into the top 6 but will likely be a top 9 playmaking forward when he makes his debut. His playstyle will allow an attacking center to take more risks in the offensive zone while he falls back with his superior defensive skills, ready to pick-off an errant pass and airmail to the attacking center who was behind the play. Texas is starting to see their younger talent make an impact in their lineup. Spanish is already capped after a full season in the SMJHL (I suspect he was a DFA, haven’t checked) and has a large bank account. He looks to be a max earner for sure but the question then becomes: can he keep it up? If so, Texas gets a potential superstar at 5th overall.

6. Platoon West Kendall Platoon (via Edmonton Blizzard, via New England Wolfpack) – Cody @WinterIsComing

West Kendall is in the transition to the next generation of the Platoon and Cody/WiC is a big addition to a team with minimal high potential forward prospects. Cody will bring scoring to a team that will eventually be without Bennett, Light, Forsberg, etc. who are all in regression. He can take his time in making the jump to the SHL and polish his skills before he makes a serious push for Rookie of the Year in a few seasons time. Adding a senior member of the SHL is seldom a bad move either.

7. Blizzard Edmonton Blizzard - Khabib Nurmagomedov @khabib

Edmonton addressed a need they will have once their senior staff bite the bullet that is regression by adding the Russian dynamo that is Nurmagomedov. Nurmagomedov didn’t see a lot of ice time this past season in Detroit but did put up 15 points as a third-liner in a strong Detroit lineup. He will get more ice time as parts of the current Falcons lineup make the jump to the SHL, possibly as the team's main scorer if he plays his cards right. Even if he falls victim to the process in Detroit and doesn’t put up an MVP caliber season, he very well could find his way very quickly in a Blizzard lineup that could be without a significant part of their scoring in just a few seasons.

8. Stars Toronto North Stars - Jan Zacha @StaticShocked

Jan Zacha joins a North Stars group that has invested heavily in depth down the middle. Zacha joins a prospect group that includes 3 other centers, two of which will likely end up being contributing SHL players. This gives the Stars (and Zacha) a lot of flexibility moving forward knowing they have 3 competent options down the middle that could replace Lokitonov once he moves to the wing to finish his career.

9. Dragons Calgary Dragons - Prince Devitt @CFJ

A great pick by the Dragons. Senior member, unique and valuable playstyle, and not likely to be going anywhere anytime soon (I presume). He’s a future lock for the Dragons top 4. Not much else to say.

10. Steelhawks Hamilton Steelhawks - Skao Anazibf @nour

Depending on how long Phelps sticks around in Hamilton, and I don’t think he’s going anywhere anytime soon, Anazibf will have to compete with Wilson and Zidek for playing time down the middle once he makes the jump to the SHL. It’s worth noting that Anazibf is not very good at Faceoffs (FO = 40), but such a skill can be developed very quickly should the need for help down the middle arises. Wilson seems to be the front runner for Hamilton’s next 1C, but Anazibf has the potential to emerge as a bona fide option down the middle later in his career.

11. pride San Francisco Pride - Mikas Bieksa @ontanis

San Francisco certainly isn’t hurting for defense now but having more high potential pieces on the back end is never a bad thing. Bieksa is looking to provide offense from the back end. He didn’t accomplish much with the Whalers this past season (2-5-7, 39 GP), but that can be attributed to his spot in the lineup (3rd pairing). I believe he will crack the Whalers Top 4 next season, maybe even the Top 2, which is when his offensive prowess will begin to show. Depending what San Francisco does, Bieksa could be in Vancouver for a few seasons yet but will have the potential for a breakout rookie season once he does make the show.

12. Barracuda Tampa Bay Barracuda - Anthony Archer @Zach

Some mocks had Archer going 1st overall over Elijah Jones. The skill sets are there. Both are scoring archetypes, where Jones is the athletic Offensive Forward and Archer is the bulkier Power Forward type. Both have the potential to be “the guy” for each of their teams. Archer joins a jammed pack Barracuda forward group that includes Lagerfield, Wilson, Fantobens, Sawchuk, Cloutier, and Soderberg. He certainly will have a role in that group down the line, but it is expected that he will be given as much time as he wants in Anaheim to develop. I would expect him to be a favorite for Rookie of the Year once he is finally called up.

13. Stars Toronto North Stars (via West Kendall Platoon) - Derek Bohne Jr. @wumaduce

Toronto’s second pick of the first round, Bohne Jr. joins a team that is hurting for defense. I wouldn’t expect him to be in the minors long considering the ice time up for grabs in Toronto. The trade of Bergen to New Orleans furthers this need for defense, though with the team entering a full teardown and rebuild it’s hard to say if the Stars will call in their prospects early or if they will hit the FA market to fill holes. Time will tell, but it’s a great opportunity for Bohne Jr.

14. Stars Toronto North Stars (via New Orleans Specters) - Knox Booth @Tate

It’s hard to judge this pick since Booth has now been traded to the Panthers for a 2nd next season, but Booth comes off as a great young goalie with the potential to be the Panthers’ goalie of the future. Harry Carpet seems to have already staked his claim to the Stars starting job, which made Booth an insurance policy on Carpet not performing in the bigs. I feel like there were better options for the Stars, but good on them for not holding on to a goalie prospect that would be relegated to the minors or a backup job.

15. Jets Winnipeg Jets - Artem Mozgov @diacope

The Jets are well into their transition to the next generation and add another piece to the puzzle that is building a championship team. Mozgov is currently in the same predicament as earlier draft picks Zacha and Bieksa in that they are currently the third-string players on a very strong Whalers team. Mozgov is a towering 6-foot 6 Power Forward out of Russia that has shown a preference to shoot over hitting thus far in his development. Such a player in their prime can be incredibly difficult to deal with and can be invaluable to a team looking to shut down the other team’s top unit. Should Mozgov develop into the top talent the Jets are hoping they got with the 15th pick, I can easily see him in a shutdown role, likely on the top line with two other skilled forwards that can create space while Mozgov runs interference.

16. Blizzard Edmonton Blizzard (via Buffalo Stampede) - Noah Andros @Good_Ole_Kimmy

The final pick of the first round, the Blizzard rounds out their trio of 1st rounders with an offensive defenseman to pair with 4th overall pick FR Finn-Rhys. Andros is a current teammate of fellow Blizzard draft pick Khabib Nurmagomedov and had similar production to Nurmagomedov in his rookie season with Detroit. Where Nurmagomedov was the goal scorer, Andros was the quarterback with a 3-11-14 line in 50 games where he averaged over 20 minutes a game. Andros looks to play an offensive style game on the backend, providing more offensive opportunities for his team while still providing solid defense. He is on the smaller side at 5-foot 10, 180 pounds but should his speed develop, it will allow him to take more chances in the offensive zone while being able to get back into the defensive zone to stop the rush.

*Finishing here, I won't have time to do the second round.*

Just over 2800 words.

[Image: Carbine.gif]
Sig Credit: Suavemente, rum_ham, Turd Ferguson

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