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LordBirdman · 04-05-2021, 10:39 PM

Releasing some fantasy rankings again this season. I graded my mediocre rankings from last season here and actually would say that last season my rankings were slightly better than mediocre, possibly even satisfactory? Last season I relied a lot on historical results and valued consistency, which isn't a bad way to play necessarily but this season I'm upping my value for potential. Obviously these should be taken with a grain of salt and are probably most helpful for less informed users.

This season I'm splitting up D and F rankings (fun fact, the points above replacement method from this past season suggests D and F are of relatively equal importance). While I did some ordering, I really think that within tiers there is an argument to be made for taking any player over another so keep that in mind. Also note that TPE is taken from the tracker as of last night, so factor in Regression for S49 and older players.

Defense
D seem to be relatively consistent in year over year performance. I think I go with a D with my first pick for this reason.

Tier 1
Lyle Odelein III - D Specters

S58 Position Rank: 1; S57 Position Rank: 4; S48, 2100TPE
FR Finn-Rhys - D Wolfpack

S58 Position Rank: 2; S57 Position Rank: 2; S49, 2041TPE
Cassius Darrow - D Argonauts

S58 Position Rank: 3; S57 Position Rank: 1; S45, 2058TPE
Samuel Michaud - D Steelhawks

S58 Position Rank: 4; S57 Position Rank: 22; S50, 1996TPE
Adam Barron - D Stars

S58 Position Rank: 5; S57 Position Rank: 28; S50, 2072TPE

Ok so this is going to seem super boring because my Tier 1 D men are the ones that finished last season 1-5. My reasoning for this is that other than Finn-Rhys, all of these players are in similar situations without getting hit too hard by regression. You could probably drop FR to 5th of these because of his move to New England, which could hurt his offensive output, but at the same time Lyle Odelein does just fine on a wretched team. Darrow has been incredibly consistent and while he might not finish top 3, is very likely to finish top 8 and be a fantasy 1D. A fair argument could be made to take Michaud and Barron towards the top given they are on strong teams and still earning TPE.

Tier 2
Jakob Hamr - D Barracuda

S58 Position Rank: 7; S57 Position Rank: 3; S50, 1297TPE
Kaspars Claude - D Dragons

S58 Position Rank: 10; S57 Position Rank: 19; S48, 2059TPE
Brennan Kennedy Jr. - D Dragons

S58 Position Rank: 11; S57 Position Rank: 10; S46, 1923TPE
Corey Kennedy - D syndicate

S58 Position Rank: 17; S57 Position Rank: 7; S47, 2095TPE

I put Jakob Hamr at the top of Tier 2 because of how consistent he has been racking up hits and SBs the past two seasons. I think it is highly likely he finishes as a top 10 D. I have the tandem of Dragons D in my second tier based on their TPE level, being on a good team, and relatively balanced across points and hits/SB. My first spicy take in these rankings is putting Corey Kennedy in my Tier 2 despite finishing 17th best last season. He's only one season removed from finishing 7th, is on a solid team, and gets points and hits/SB. Maybe a risky play but I think he'll return to form.

Tier 3
Dominic Montgomery - D Inferno

S58 Position Rank: 6; S57 Position Rank: 11; S45, 1592TPE
Rex Kirkby - D Inferno

S58 Position Rank: 9; S57 Position Rank: 8; S43, 1745TPE
Bjorn Leppanen - D Renegades

S58 Position Rank: 23; S57 Position Rank: 30; S50, 1941TPE
Oliver Cleary - D Rage

S58 Position Rank: 14; S57 Position Rank: 31; S48, 2008TPE

Tier 3 is where things start becoming a bit dicier. Last season, the difference between 20th best D and 10th best D is 25 points, which can definitely make or break finishing in a TPE earning spot. I have two players that will be fighting off regression but still have shown enough the past few seasons to be your 2D and two younger players that don't have that history but have high TPE, are balanced, and are in pretty good situations.

Tier 4
Karlstrasse Scholz - D Blizzard

S58 Position Rank: 16; S57 Position Rank: 18; S46, 1982TPE
Adam Scianna - D Renegades

S58 Position Rank: 19; S57 Position Rank: 37; S52, 1623TPE
Augustus Wang - D Stampede

S58 Position Rank: 15; S57 Position Rank: 14; S50, 1973TPE
Alex Petrenko - D pride

S58 Position Rank: 20; S57 Position Rank: 20; S51, 1604TPE
Gabriel Johnson - D Argonauts

S58 Position Rank: 18; S57 Position Rank: 13; S48, 2124TPE
Akira Ren - D syndicate

S58 Position Rank: 30; S57 Position Rank: 39; S50, 2017TPE
Simon LeBlanc - D Inferno

S58 Position Rank: 8; S57 Position Rank: 16; S48, 1575TPE

My tier 4 is players 14-20. There are only 16 D taken, so these players are likely to finish in a tighter band and my view is at this point you can go high risk/high reward or a more consistent, unlikely to move up type of player. Scholz, Johnson, and LeBlanc fit the latter mold to me while Scianna, Wang, Petrenko, and Ren are higher risk higher reward.

Forwards
From what I can tell, F are much more likely to move wildly from one season to the next. Players that rely on G+A seem to be more prone to these swings. F seem much more volatile and also harder to predict.

Tier 1
Karl Krashwagen - F Platoon

S58 Position Rank: 1; S57 Position Rank: 57; S50, 1878TPE
Eko van Otter - F Inferno

S58 Position Rank: 5; S57 Position Rank: 13; S47, 2121TPE
Theo Morgan - F Steelhawks

S58 Position Rank: 6; S57 Position Rank: 24; S47, 2020TPE
Bobby Sharp - F

S58 Position Rank: 2; S57 Position Rank: 11; S46, 1963TPE
Henrik Lekberg Osterman - F pride

S58 Position Rank: 4; S57 Position Rank: 43; S50, 1910TPE

I rank Karl "King Carl's Favorite Adopted Son" Krashwagen as the number 1 fantasy F because I think he is highly likely to finish top 5. His hitting and SB are incredibly attractive and he clearly can put up G+A. After Krash, I think any of the forwards listed could be swapped around. They are all high TPE players that get hits along with G+A. Sharp is the most reliant on point totals which should be kept in mind, but heck he finished 2nd last season on a strong Stampede team. HLO is an interesting pick because of his SBs and respectable hit total, along with the skill to put up G+A on a SFP team on the rise.

Tier 2
Esa Parmborg - F Dragons

S58 Position Rank: 7; S57 Position Rank: 7; S47, 2046TPE
Martijn Westbroek - F syndicate

S58 Position Rank: 8; S57 Position Rank: 2; S47, 1912TPE
Andreas Kvalheim - F Renegades

S58 Position Rank: 10; S57 Position Rank: 40; S45, 2021TPE
Bobby Lane - F Stars

S58 Position Rank: 14; S57 Position Rank: 39; S50, 2024TPE
Michael Scarn - F Steelhawks

S58 Position Rank: 3; S57 Position Rank: 1; S46, 2032TPE

The first three of these players have been mainstays in fantasy relevance and will continue to do so (Kvalehim did take S57 off but we forgive him for that). Bobby Lane is a rising star on a solid Toronto team and could possibly shoot up to top 5, but he seems higher risk with more reliance on points than hits/SB. Scarn is a toss up because he is a FA that could end up in a bad situation, but his build has proven to be strong in a good enough situation so could be worth the risk as your second F.

Tier 3
Nick Brain - F Jets

S58 Position Rank: 12; S57 Position Rank: 10; S46, 2069TPE
Monkey D. Luffy - F Stampede

S58 Position Rank: 15; S57 Position Rank: 12; S46, 2006TPE
Barry Batsbak - F Dragons

S58 Position Rank: 17; S57 Position Rank: 18; S46, 1916TPE
Julio Tokolosh - F Blizzard

S58 Position Rank: 9; S57 Position Rank: 3; S47, 2076TPE
Ruslan Zaporozhets - F Stars

S58 Position Rank: 13; S57 Position Rank: 60; S51, 1552TPE

Nick Brain is a very consistent two-way fantasy performer, probably should be in Tier 2 but I already made these so oh well. Luffy is typically a great player but also relies on points vs hits/SB, dropping him slightly. Batsbak has been consistently in this range the past two seasons and deserves to be here for that consistency. Tokolosh fell a bit for me because I think Edmonton takes a step back this year, but otherwise he could be a solid pickup here. Zaporozhets is the first S51 player I rank and I think his situation on the stars combined with his ability to lay the body make him a strong candidate to outperform his ranking.

Tier 4
Phineas Gold - F Rage

S58 Position Rank: 19; S57 Position Rank: 27; S50, 1893TPE
Aaron Wilson - F Steelhawks

S58 Position Rank: 21; S57 Position Rank: 15.5; S47, 2115TPE
Daniel Smeb - F syndicate

S58 Position Rank: 23; S57 Position Rank: 6; S46, 1893TPE
Guy Zheng - F Inferno

S58 Position Rank: 25; S57 Position Rank: 6; S46, 2007TPE
Tony Pepperoni - F Blizzard

S58 Position Rank: 11; S57 Position Rank: 4; S43, 1672TPE
Elijah Jones - F

S58 Position Rank: 27; S57 Position Rank: 20; S49, 2181TPE

Phineas Gold shoots up my rankings because he is a solid two-way player and top line talent. Wilson, Smeb, and Zheng have all shown that they can be dominant fantasy players on the upside and on the downside won't lose you your league as a 3rd F. Pepperoni refuses to let age affect him and will probably prove me wrong by somehow finishing top 10 again, but with Edmonton taking a step back and another year of aggressive regression the risk is definitely there. Elijah Jones is another high scoring player that doesn't get hits/SB, but is on the perennial contending Steelhawks and probably a threat to lead the league in points and shoot up the rankings.

Tier 5
Jakub Bruchevski - F Wolfpack

S58 Position Rank: 20; S57 Position Rank: 8; S49, 1708TPE
Jimmy Slothface - F Panthers

S58 Position Rank: 32; S57 Position Rank: 5; S46, 2015TPE
Tom Fiddler - F Barracuda

S58 Position Rank: 26; S57 Position Rank: 68; S50, 1799TPE
Slap McShotty - F Wolfpack

S58 Position Rank: 24; S57 Position Rank: 37; S47, 1963TPE
Jon Forty-One - F Blizzard

S58 Position Rank: 28; S57 Position Rank: 22; S48, 1955TPE
Dick Clapper - F Stampede

S58 Position Rank: 34; S57 Position Rank: 17; S46, 2002TPE
Mitchell van der Heijden - F Steelhawks

S58 Position Rank: 47; S57 Position Rank: 58; S51, 1802TPE

Some of these players are higher risk flyers and some are steadier 3 Fs. Both Slothface and Bruchevski took a step back in the rankings last season but have shown an ability to produce. Fiddler is an interesting player on the rise on TBB and you could see him shooting up the point charts this season very easily. McShotty, Forty-One, and Clapper have produced similarly over the past few seasons and are steady players worthy of your 3F spot. My final spot goes to a potential sleeper and someone to keep an eye on, Mitchell van der Heijden. The void left by Michael Scarn could be filled by van der Heijden as he also can lay the body and put up 60 points with an opportunity to significantly increase shots this season.

Goalies

Tier 1
Hamilton
Texas
Toronto
Buffalo

Tier 2
Chicago
Calgary
Manhattan
Atlanta
Edmonton

Welp, there are my hopefully better than medicore rankings. The prediction business is a tough one, but let me know if you agree/think I'm way off anywhere.