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Atox · 01-18-2024, 02:41 PM

[Ready for Grading]
This was supposed to be written earlier, but when I initially went through the process of switching over from S71-S73 to S72-S74 I had a weird quirk with my data set where like 40% of the Top 30 Prospects were from Season 74. I never had this occur before where the most reason season of draftees were the most populous, so I decided to wait a bit and see if time after the draft would help reduce it. It did, but I also frankly forgot about this until recently and since the Regular Season has ended as of writing is probably the last chance I'll get to do this before the new wave of draftees.

[Statistics and ranking gathered January 2, 2024 unless otherwise stated]

#20:

Edmonton Blizzard - 0 Score
Season 72 Score - 0 (T-Last)
Season 73 Score - 0 (T-Last)
Season 74 Score - 0 (T-Last)
Top 30 Prospects: None
Edmonton broke into the upper echelon of the league back in Season 70 finishing sixth and have contended since, winning the Challenge Cup in Season 73. Makes sense because their core is almost all players from Seasons 64-67. At the end of Season 74 they sit at the top of the league rankings with 105 points which is 9 points above the second place Buffalo Stampede. The Blizzard aren't going to need any serious reinforcement on this roster for a few more seasons as they hit their peak, unlike the other two teams that occupied the #20 spot when written (Seattle S70, Montreal S72) who completely tore down their rosters within two seasons of my article.

#19:

San Francisco Pride - 392.28 Score
Season 72 Score - 392.28 (7th)
Season 73 Score - 0 (T-Last)
Season 74 Score - 0 (T-Last)
Top 30 Prospects: Rowan O'Beirne (S72, 8th)
I was surprised when I pulled the info from my sheet and saw San Francisco at 19th in this ranking. They're still developing sitting at 14th in the league's rankings and had a treasure trove of prospects the last time I wrote. Said prospect haul was the reason, in that they don't have to keep stacking prospects like crazy. All but one player on the San Francisco roster has not faced regression yet, with much of them not worrying about regression for several more seasons. San Fran doesn't have a completely barren pool, with their only prospect at time of writing being a Top 10 prospect and will join the team in Season 75. The Pride still need time to develop with of their roster still being very young (Season 69 and younger), but come two or three seasons from now I'd bet the Pride will be in top contention.

#18:

Baltimore Platoon - 548.83 Score
Season 72 Score - 352.66 (10th)
Season 73 Score - 0 (T-Last)
Season 74 Score - 197.18 (16th)
Top 30 Prospects: Beau Kavanaugh (S72, 30th)
Baltimore is in a similar situation to San Francisco in that their roster has aged into the SHL which makes their prospect pool very weak. Unlike San Francisco, they've broken out since a chunk of their core is a good bit older (7 players from Seasons 67 and 68) which put them in contention now instead of three seasons in the future. This was put into stone with the Platoon finishing 5th in league standings. Their only prospect is Beau Kavanaugh who looks to be the replacement of Toms Zile as the backup and will likely take the starting role in the far future from Sir Devoir when Kavanaugh hits his peak as Devoir regresses or retires.

#17:

Winnipeg Aurora - 608.19 Score
Season 72 Score - 0 (T-Last)
Season 73 Score - 0 (T-Last)
Season 74 Score - 608.19 (12th)
Top 30 Prospects: None
Winnipeg have a disturbing lack of prospects for a team aging as badly as they have. Sitting in a very mediocre 10th place in Season 74, Winnipeg has 10 players from Season 62 or earlier. They have some high earning young players from Seasons 70 and 71, but only four of them isn't enough with only two prospects in their system. Their two prospects in Juan Tymer and Langston Hardison-Laurent are decent prospects sitting over 450 TPE this season and will likely slot into the Top 30 come the start of next season. This does not change the fact that Winnipeg needs much more reinforcement and will likely see pains as they try to transition from their previous championship winning core into a new roster core.

#16:

Los Angeles Panthers - 1022.76 Score
Season 72 Score - 0 (T-Last)
Season 73 Score - 460.55 (12th)
Season 74 Score - 562.21 (14th)
Top 30 Prospects: None
Los Angeles is another team where they loaded up on draft picks in the past and had a rich pool but since that prospect pool aged out the current pool is lacking. Most of the roster is from Season 67 and later, with a good batch even younger (Seasons 69-71). The hope is that next season or the season after the Panthers break out into cup contention, which looks to be the case as they've steadily improved from year to year. The lingering issue is large parts of the core being in regression which will need replacing soon. While having no Top 30 prospects, Abdi Smokes and Stun Gun still look to be interesting prospects sitting over 400 TPE in their D+1 season. Stun Gun in particular as they will likely take the backup goalie role next season or the season after with Zhen Roza regressing heavily and already very low on TPE.

#15:

Texas Renegades - 1101.10 Score
Season 72 Score - 0 (T-Last)
Season 73 Score - 1000.36 (3rd)
Season 74 Score - 98.74 (17th)
Top 30 Prospects: Guy Incognito (S73, 5th), Kenny Omega (S73, 27th)
Texas took a jump in the Season 74 offseason which is evidenced by them being a much more consistent team. A 12 point increase and +76 goal differential show just as much. Their roster is about to hit their peak with a large chunk of it being from Seasons 67-69. The next three seasons will likely be the best chance for the Renegades to compete before the older parts of the roster completely fall off as well as the majority of their roster starting regression. The additions of Guy Incognito and Kenny Omega might offset somewhat, but how much is to be determined.

#14:

Seattle Argonauts - 1176.56 Score
Season 72 Score - 0 (T-Last)
Season 73 Score - 222.66 (16th)
Season 74 Score - 953.89 (8th)
Top 30 Prospects: None
The wheels have finally fallen off completely for Seattle as they missed the playoffs in Season 74, this being the first time in over 15 seasons and the first time in the SHL's 20 team format. It was expected of course as the Argonauts won the Challenge Cup in Season 68 and that core would have to be scrapped eventually. It will take some time as Seattle didn't prep for a rebuild until recently seeing as they have no active S72 prospects, but their efforts recently give hope for the future. A good trio of Season 74 prospects all over 460 TPE will likely slide into the Top 30 come next season, and the lottery pick they have in Season 75 should hit excluding a catastrophic bust.

#13:

New England Wolfpack - 1443.96 Score
Season 72 Score - 0 (T-Last)
Season 73 Score - 627.13 (9th)
Season 74 Score - 816.84 (9th)
Top 30 Prospects: None
It's somewhat concerning for a team where they go from back-to-back President's Trophy champions to squarely in the middle of the league in terms of standings. Their roster isn't too old for this sort of regression to happen this quickly; even if their top TPE players like Ivan Lacksamus and Seamus O'Slapahan have faced TPE regression it shouldn't be this drastic this quickly. Their best prospects as well are S74 players like Teal'c and Troy McClure IV, both over 440 TPE, but if New England doesn't right the ship in the playoffs or next season this will spell trouble.

#12:

Philadelphia Forge - 1450.79 Score
Season 72 Score - 0 (T-Last)
Season 73 Score - 345.98 (14th)
Season 74 Score - 1104.82 (6th)
Top 30 Prospects: None
The Philadelphia Forge still sit squarely in the middle of the cup window as they finished Season 74 3rd in league standings, and have made the Conference Finals every season since Season 69. A good chunk of the Forge's roster is hitting regression(e.g Sam-sam Emerson, Red Kirkby, Ricky Koivu, Base Pack), but with their high TPE totals they should be top contributors for at a good while. The Forge's prospect pool is interesting as well, with Ubba Lodbrok just outside the Top 30 and S74 prospects Marek Carda and Leonard Wood just over 460 TPE.

#11:

Hamilton Steelhawks - 1626.18 Score
Season 72 Score - 1216.39 (4th)
Season 73 Score - 409.79 (13th)
Season 74 Score - 0 (T-Last)
Top 30 Prospects: Zedward Zilliams (S72, 1st), Jani Manty (S73, 3rd), Activity Check (S72, 6th), Trevor Lahey (S72, 8th)
Hamilton still sits squarely in the middle of the league standings once again as they finished 13th in league standings. A big problem as a majority of the Steelhawks roster will regress at the start of Season 75, with Koivu, NWaffles, and Calavera starting regression. The Steelhawks do have a trove of top prospects in four Top 10 prospects that will replace the aging parts of the roster, but have no other prospects beyond them. Maybe that is enough?

#10:

Chicago Syndicate - 1803.16 Score
Season 72 Score - 359.80 (8th)
Season 73 Score - 772.58 (4th)
Season 74 Score - 670.78 (10th)
Top 30 Prospects: Sad Ketchup (S73, 10th), Ho Lee-Smokes (S73, 12th), Alexandros Mograine (S72, 28th)
Chicago has somehow kept themselves at least somewhat relevant with a roster that's old enough to claim a pension. Only five players on their roster have not faced regression, and the 12 players who have faced regression have faced it multiple times. This includes seven players from Season 59 or earlier, with only two of them over 1000 TPE. At some point this ancient part of the roster will leave and be replaced by whatever prospects Chicago has and the one's the have are pretty good. Mograine is already on the roster, and the S73 prospects in Sad Ketchup and Ho Lee-Smokes look to get a crack on the main roster next season. The Syndicate also have Leo Roze and Cal Juice; two Season 74 prospects over 460 TPE. How quickly these prospects can develop is to be determined.

#9:

Buffalo Stampede - 2032.86 Score
Season 72 Score - 212.08 (12th)
Season 73 Score - 681.03 (6th)
Season 74 Score - 1139.75 (5th)
Top 30 Prospects: Mephistopheles Morgonstjarna (S73, 16th)
Buffalo finished Season 74 2nd in league standings and have stayed put in the upper crust of the league since their Challenge Cup winning Season 71. The Stampede don't look to be falling off soon with an old roster, but do have aging parts of said roster that will be replaced soon. Mephistopheles is Buffalo's best prospect and will replace aging players like Chimkin Wing or Billy Brooks in Season 76 in all likelihood, and Buffalo has a crop of S74 players in Johnny Patey V2 and Deep Thought who are both over 450 TPE. While not a highly ranked prospect, S73 goalie Five-Hole Sieve will likely make the main roster in Season 75 or 76, and would be an immediate upgrade over backup Nina Tucker.

#8:

Montreal Patriotes - 2122.65 Score
Season 72 Score - 0 (T-Last)
Season 73 Score - 557.42 (10th)
Season 74 Score - 1565.23 (2nd)
Top 30 Prospects: Jussi Mutou (S73, 25th)
After Season 72, Montreal completely smashed their roster to enter a rebuild. This included their top three point getters in Grogu Mandosson (now in Winnipeg), Sconnie McHits (retired), and Mads McBride (now in Texas). Other players like Shylo Moxii and Jonathan Hagan were also jettisoned. This results in Montreal taking their turn as the league punching bag only winning four games with a roster that has some players qualifying for AARP. Three of their players are from before Season 50; playing for the better part of 30 seasons at this point. Their current prospect pool is to be determined, as while it ranks at a respectable 8th, being a bulk of Season 74 draftees gives it a good bit of volatility. They still have the standout Jussi Mutou in the Top 30 fringe, and just outside out the Top 30 in Emil Karlsson who's tied 2nd among S74 players. Regardless of if all of Montreal's current prospects pan out, this will be a very long and painful rebuilding process.

#7:

Minnesota Monarchs - 2126.99 Score
Season 72 Score - 447.67 (6th)
Season 73 Score - 469.43 (11th)
Season 73 Score - 1209.88 (4th)
Top 30 Prospects: Lazer Gato (S72, 14th), Xaver Beausoleil (S73, 17th)
Minnesota is still crawling out of the hole they've been in for the better part of 20 seasons, but their current roster and further prospects look to bring the Monarchs out of hell. The roster is young with a majority from Season 68 or later, and only three players under regression. It will still take time, but should this roster not completely fall apart Minnesota will have a bright future. The prospects still in development will help as well, with two Top 30 prospects, as well as S74 standouts in *reads notes* Bartholomew C Gingersnap III, and Simo Jaaskelainen.

#6:

Atlanta Inferno - 2185.21 Score
Season 72 Score - 310.36 (11th)
Season 73 Score - 1386.96 (2nd)
Season 74 Score - 487.90 (15th)
Top 30 Prospects: Jae-ik Baron (S73, 11th), Kristian Seppanen (S73, 19th), Sim Wen (S73, 26th)
Atlanta seems to defy all logic as Season 74 will be their 13th consecutive winning season; all of them finishing above 10th in league standings. This is with their older core with the likes of Michael Withecheck, Angus McFife XVIII, Jay Cue, etc all regressing heavily. Atlanta has good odds of extending this streak for a while as well with their prospects, including the Top 30 prospects listed above, as well as a handful more prospects like Dan Johnston and Paul Bondage.

#5:

New Orleans Specters - 2625.25 Score
Season 72 Score - 1387.44 (2nd)
Season 73 Score - 666.44 (7th)
Season 74 Score - 571.36 (13th)
Top 30 Prospects: Bernard Lodge (S72, 12th), Billy Hill (S72, 18th), Prince Marius (S73, T-22nd)
New Orleans has been sitting in neutral for about five seasons as they finished 12th in league standings and just barely over .500. The Specters roster has a large chunk of young players, including four Season 72 players, but also very old pieces on the roster such as Jon St. Ark and Xavier Doom. The older parts of the roster will be getting replaced soon, Jon St. Ark might get dropped to 1B in their goalie tandem with regression and Bernard Lodge nearing 900 TPE. Beyond New Orleans' Top 30 prospects, they also have Konig Wolf and Artturi Lappalainen who are both on the SHL roster right now, as well as S74 prospects in Ace Guilded and Cracker Pizza who both sit over 420 TPE.

#4:

Tampa Bay Barracuda - 2677.08 Score
Season 72 Score - 1006.23 (5th)
Season 73 Score - 641.16 (8th)
Season 74 Score - 1029.69 (7th)
Top 30 Prospects: The Murray (S72, 13th), Dunkler Sowerwine (S73, 23rd)
The Barracuda have escaped the basement and now sit in the middle of the SHL pack, which is good progress as Season 74 will be Tampa Bay's first winning season since Season 65, seemingly buoyed by two 2000 TPE forwards and John Brown. The roster still has a tone of placeholder guys with very low TPE with five players under 800 TPE (excluding Crazy Tomato), which includes a 200 TPE backup goaltender. On top of Tampa Bay's Top 30 Prospects in Murray and Sowerwine, they also three prospects just outside of it in RIP THUNDERDOME, a Season 72 prospect just over 800 TPE and on the main roster, as well as two Season 74 prospects in Shawn Pawn and Dag-Otto Bjorntjanst over 470 TPE.

#3:

Manhattan Rage - 3200.37 Score
Season 72 Score - 1822.37 (1st)
Season 73 Score - 728.84 (5th)
Season 74 Score - 649.17 (11th)
Top 30 Prospects: Jaromir Jagrbomb (S72, 2nd), Austin Morley (S72, 4th), Betzee Nickelback (S73, 9th)
Manhattan is still putting pieces together after nuking their team a few seasons ago, and that is indicated in there only being two players over 1000 TPE on Manhattan's roster as of writing. Alexej Kastrba is at 999 so three if you wanna add him but the point stands. The bigger shock in my opinion is that two teams finished worse than Manhattan in Season 74. This placeholder roster exists because Manhattan's current bet is on their prospects who still need time to develop. They have three top 10 prospects in Jagbrbomb, Morley, and Nickelback, as well as a pair of high earning Season 74 prospects in Celeste Desjardins and Roger Murdock who both sit over 460 TPE. The Rage also have Wayne Holloway as their only goalie prospect. From Season 72 and at 760 TPE he will absolutetly be the starter next season, and would've started this season if he so choosed.

#2:

Calgary Dragons - 3251.65 Score
Season 72 Score - 1370.14 (3rd)
Season 73 Score - 301.04 (15th)
Season 74 Score - 1580.47 (1st)
Top 30 Prospects: None
Calgary sits in a similar position to where they were in Season 72, that being trying to rebuild after pushing a nuke on their roster. The difference right now is that Calgary has a slightly better roster as they have called up several Season 72 players for this season instead of having them sit in the SMJHL for one more year. The roster is still TPE deficient with only four players over 1000 TPE, and all of them are facing regression. Weirdly enough for Calgary, despite having the second best prospect pool they have no Top 30 Prospects, mainly because the bulk of their prospects are from Season 74. Calgary has three S74 prospects over 460 TPE, and another over 430 TPE. The aforementioned Season 72 players on Calgary's roster right now are all in the 750-780 TPE range, excluding Jaden Tanner at 580.

#1

Toronto North Stars - 3344.74 Score
Season 72 Score - 356.73 (9th)
Season 73 Score - 1604.32 (1st)
Season 74 Score - 1383.69 (3rd)
Top 30 Prospects: Bobby Tkachuky (S73, 21st), Florian Soderberg-Motyla (S73, T-22nd), Brooklyn Physt (S73, 24th), Wesley Kirkpatrick (S72, 29th)
While 15th isn't very impressive in SHL standings, but still showed progress as they hit a respectable 30. This is also great progress for the North Stars after their roster is still made up mostly of placeholders and a lot of old players. I don't think they'll instantly jump into the top half of the league next season, but I think in 2-3 seasons we'll see Toronto back in contention. They have former top prospects in players like Ace Lightning, Aumy Junior II, and Filip Svatos on the roster right now, as well as a good chunk of other young players accompanying them for the future. Beyond Toronto's Top 30 prospects, they also have good prospects in the fringe like Mac Turner who sits 31st, and a ton of S74 prospects such as Dwayne Swanson, Stormlord Imoetkh, Denebor Milasch, Bog Damsel, and Mac Griddle. Milasch in particular Toronto hopes pans out as their current goalies are both low TPE and well inactive.

***Jexter*** · 01-18-2024, 02:50 PM

Juan and I will carry WPG. Trust

TheOPSquid · 01-18-2024, 03:14 PM

This is awesome! Great breakdown, I read through the rest of your posts from the past couple seasons and the effort and formula you use is really in depth! Is there anywhere we'd be able to see the full prospect rankings on a sheet like you had in your first ranking post?

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